Thursday, August 27, 2026

Late August 2026 Random Ramblings

Higher rates could compress equity multiples and raise AI data center lease costs, while UWMC and Cogent raise questions about CEO-driven capital allocation.

UWMC $2.3BCCOI $495M

Yet Another Value Podcast Aug 27 16 clicks

Aug 27 VRRM $696M

The Verra Sneerer (NASDAQ:VRRM)

The Oak Bloke 10 clicks

Aug 27 NVDA $5.2T

Nvidia Climbing the Wall of Worries

MBI Deep Dives 9 clicks

From X

@LaughingH20Cap Nov 12

Laughing Water Capital on X

@yummyCenturyEgg @MGardnerDA1235 @dylan55917 8/x) add this to the list of common sense and technical arguments that demonstrate how the 900 band is not messy. Assume the $NN bears will ignore this, as they ignored the above points. https://t.co/wqpbmn33X7

@LittleOwlRes Nov 10

Little Owl Research on X

In September I had the pleasure of attending the Howard Hughes $HHH annual shareholder meeting. I met the man himself! @BillAckman Not to get ahead of myself, but this could be the beginning of something very special. Today’s quarterly results help to reinforce my views on the quality of both the asset base and management. The company is firing on all cylinders. Management continues to execute on the MPC strategy, and an acquisition seems highly likely in the short term. However, the shares still trade at a deep discount to intrinsic value. Do I care? No—at least not yet. Pershing Square has a truly remarkable track record. Since adopting their “permanent capital” strategy they have done 23.5% net of fees annually since January of 2018. Not too shabby. I suspect they’ll be acquiring a small insurer in the 1.0x-1.4x P/B range, if that’s the case, and they continue to put up those returns, the acquisition will be monstrously accretive. When Buffett took control of Berkshire, it was a failing textile mill with a negative terminal value. Ackman is starting off with assets of much higher quality and that are beginning to generate a lot of excess cash. A lot of work has to be done, but I’m happy to hold my shares here. If you’re interested in learning more about the real estate operations, I’ve attached my $HHH report from November of 2023–obviously outdated, but should help get you up to speed on the history, RE strategy, and asset base—and I will be putting out an updated report after the details of the insurance acquisition are announced. https://t.co/ueKI0TWY9R

@LaughingH20Cap Nov 10

Laughing Water Capital on X

below relates to how the extreme upside case for $NN spectrum could develop. Satellite direct to phone requires low band spectrum to be effective. $AAPL may want to control its own satellite destiny. There simply is not much low band to go around. https://t.co/Z2JM9yR7tk https://t.co/5NRaPZlWMI

@AltaFoxCapital Nov 6 1 click

Connor Haley on X

Numbers are not wrong-- this was a 1% change to Adj. EBITDA in 2024 and free cash flow was unchanged. This is a recent spin and there is a lot of noise below the line. This is a new CFO who flagged this and we think is doing a great job. FCF/share (ex-WC) should grow 30%+ next year (actual FCF much higher given normalization of WC). Big valuation discount vs $DBD despite much faster and higher-quality growth.

@AltaFoxCapital Nov 6 2 clicks

Connor Haley on X

Good quarter from $NATL and thesis on track. -The ATMaaS business continues to outperform... 37% y/y growth in Q3... and it's on track to be 40%+ in Q4, well ahead of our expectations -SSB delivered >50% incremental EBITDA margins in Q3, fueling 21% EBITDA growth for the segment

@LaughingH20Cap Oct 31

Laughing Water Capital on X

@MGardnerDA1235 @yummyCenturyEgg @dylan55917 $NN has wanted to collaborate with the opposition for ~18 months. They repeatedly talk about how they want "engineer to engineer conversations", but the opposition will not engage. 1 explanation is b/c the opposition knows what the tests will say, but yes real tests are possible

@LaughingH20Cap Oct 31

Laughing Water Capital on X

@yummyCenturyEgg @MGardnerDA1235 @dylan55917 4/x) for tolls, why slightly moving part of 2 of the 3 technologies by a few mhz crazy? $NN has said this would cost "tens of millions." no big deal. Not to mention that half of toll reading is already done by camera an AI. Why use limited spectrum when better tech is available? https://t.co/75Yxn4PCu4

@LaughingH20Cap Oct 31

Laughing Water Capital on X

@yummyCenturyEgg @MGardnerDA1235 @dylan55917 3/x) beyond the pros view, consider for RFID in Europe they get 6 mhz. Japan 6. China 5. Why does US need 28? why aren't the 11 mhz between $NN's proposed 5 up and 10 down enough? not to mention that NN has already demonstrated they don't interfere with part 15

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BHVN 2026-08-27

Biohaven: Sale Of Opakalim Rights To SK Biopharmaceuticals Makes Sense On Many Levels

BHVN $2.3B

Edmund Ingham Aug 27 5 clicks

ACIW 2026-08-27

ACI Worldwide: An Undercovered Payments Compounder Getting Better

ACIW $5.4B

SiliconBytes Insights Aug 27 5 clicks

Domo (Arigato), for this potential multi-bagger options trade

Domo’s $400 million sale to Progress would leave a cash-rich public shell with $900 million of NOLs; January 2028 $5 calls cost 22 cents.

DOMO $184MPRGS $2.1B

Triple S Special Situations Investing Aug 27 7 clicks

MT 2026-08-27

ArcelorMittal: Regionalization Is Creating A Structurally Better Steel Company

MT $56B

Capital Connoisseur Aug 27 3 clicks

Nvidia’s Long-Term Margin Question

Nvidia faces questions over the durability of its long-term profit margins ahead of earnings.

NVDA $5.2T

MBI Deep Dives Aug 26 8 clicks

AMZN 2026-08-26

[scuttleslops] AI Data Center Economics, ADI, INTU, IDXX

AWS AI campuses cost $40–$45 billion per gigawatt, with Trainium 3 expected to lift compute per megawatt and improve infrastructure returns.

AMZN $2.8T

scuttleblurb Aug 26 9 clicks

Big Tech Off-Balance Sheet Concerns

Big Tech’s $3 trillion AI commitments are disclosed and largely long-dated, with nearly 60% of Amazon’s $650 billion commitments falling…

AMZN $2.8T

MBI Deep Dives Aug 25 9 clicks

$ELAL: El Al is a wartime monopoly at 2x EBITDA. Is that a trap? | ASB Partners

El Al trades near 2x EBITDA after wartime near-monopoly profits, with $1.3 billion of net cash and owned aircraft weighed against…

ELALF $3.4B

Yet Another Value Podcast Aug 20 16 clicks

CCC Is in the Middle of the Wreckage

CCC, the dominant auto physical-damage claims estimator, connects 27 of the top 30 insurers with 31,000 repair shops as takeout rumors…

CCC $4.4B

scuttleblurb Aug 20 21 clicks

Aloe Aloe Aloe what 'ave VERRA then?

Verra Mobility's new seven-year Avis agreement replaces a customer worth over 10% of revenue on materially worse economics, exposing…

VRRM $696M

The Oak Bloke Aug 20 19 clicks

Late August 2026 Random Ramblings

Higher rates threaten equity multiples and AI data-center economics, while UWMC and Cogent raise questions about CEO-driven capital…

UWMC $2.3BCCOI $495M

Yet Another Value Blog Aug 27 2 clicks

VRT 2026-08-27

Vertiv: AI's Physical Bottleneck Is Expanding Its Value Per Megawatt

VRT $102B

LL Insights Aug 27 3 clicks

FUFU 2026-08-27

BitFuFu: A $93 Million Liability No One Can Explain

FUFU $220M

Dorine Cherop Aug 27 1 click

GM 2026-08-27

General Motors: The Billion Mile Moat

GM $76B

Muhammad Cheema Aug 27 3 clicks

KGC 2026-08-27

Kinross Gold: The Buy Case Is Margin, Not Growth

KGC $39B

The Bullionaire Aug 27 4 clicks

TPC 2026-08-27

Tutor Perini: Q2 2026 Made My Strong Buy Case Stronger

TPC $4.7B

The Curious Analyst Aug 27 4 clicks

LGCY · long 2026-05-29

Legacy Education

Legacy Education operates six California campuses offering post-secondary nursing, physician assistant and surgical education.

LGCY $141M

Value Investors Club May 29 1 click

RGLD · long 2026-05-29

Royal Gold INC

Royal Gold, a $19 billion precious-metals royalty and streaming company, benefits from mine production without operating mines directly.

RGLD $22B

Value Investors Club May 29 2 clicks

CC · long 2026-05-29

the chemours inc.

Chemours (CC) is presented as a long investment in its three-segment specialty chemicals business.

CC $2.4B

Value Investors Club May 29 1 click

HGV · long 2026-05-29

Hilton Grand Vacations

Hilton Grand Vacations faces an inflection point in profitability growth and free cash flow generation.

HGV $3.4B

Value Investors Club May 29 2 clicks

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Thursday, August 27, 2026

Laughing Water Capital on X

Little Owl Research on X

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Connor Haley on X

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Laughing Water Capital on X

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