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Thursday, August 27, 2026

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Late August 2026 Random Ramblings

Higher rates could compress equity multiples and raise AI data center lease costs, while UWMC and Cogent raise questions about CEO-driven capital allocation.

CCOI $377M
Yet Another Value Podcast 13 clicks

From X

@ActAccordingly

PAA Research on X

Many. High level, the $AIRS quarter wasn't as good as hoped, but certainly not something that warranted the kind of response it received. Top of the funnel interest in lipo slowed in June/July. I have my own thesis on the potential impact of the world cup, given the shift in consumer interest in that procedure towards the latina community over the past 15-years. Only time will tell if that's right. Either way, the business is stable and now oriented for growth. Adding new procedures (eye bleph and alloclae) significantly expands $AIRS ability to serve the GLP-1 crowd. My expectation is we'll see the bank deal completed before they report 3Q26 and that could coincide with the announcement of site expansion in early 2027. The growth opportunity here remains monumental. $AIRS has massive inherent operating leverage to improved site level utilization. There was some fast money and retail involved here (clearly!), but this is about the company improving the marketing funnel in absolute lead generation and conversion, driving site level utilization, and expanding on a de novo basis. That's the recipe and obsessing about whether growth should have been 2-4% higher for 2Q26 in that context is irrelevant. This is a business that can be 3-5x the size and still have a runway for growth.
@eriksen_tim 1 click

Tim Eriksen on X

Is $EVC is a classic case of thesis drift for its investors? It was all about sequential hypergrowth (with a supposed SOTP margin of safety). Mgmt said Q3 will be below Q2. Now the thesis is about strong year over year growth. What happens in a few quarters when year over year growth is gone, or is low single digits? Is this really a seasonal business? For me it was a small position due to the nature of the situation. Q2 growth was lighter than I expected so I was selling after hours and have fully exited.
@BlueDuckCap 1 click

BDC on X

$XGN remains a top holding for us. Even after the big move higher post a beat and raise Q2, the shares trade for a material discount versus comps. The discount is silly. Especially when we consider that they are launching a new marker for Myositis. XGN tells us that Rheumatologists are BY FAR requesting a precise diagnostic for Myositis more than any other condition. The reason is because Myositis is treatable if caught early, but problematic if not. "this is the #1 asked for product amongst our rheumatologists clinical base... it's not even close to the #2 asked for offering" $XGN trades for 2x 2026 revenues. Comps go for 10x.

Investor Letters

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Jumia

Jumia’s January 2028 $7/$15 call spread risks $1.15 for up to $6.85 if cost cuts and marketplace growth deliver adjusted EBITDA and…

JMIA $917M
Triple S Special Situations Investing 13 clicks

Stock Trade Compilation Diez

E.W. Scripps, Team Internet, Monro, doValue and Inter & Co feature as special-situation trades involving mergers, asset sales, leverage and…

SSP $263MMNRO $430M
Triple S Special Situations Investing 9 clicks

Entravision Q2 Notes

Entravision’s ATS revenue rose 230% to $182.8 million in Q2, but shares fell from above $14 to about $8 after management forecast…

EVC $666M
The Value Road 13 clicks

40 Stock Pitches (3rd-9th August)

Navient trades near 40% of tangible book as Gator Financial Partners argues private student-loan growth and restructuring can reverse its…

NAVI $855M
Capital Employed 9 clicks

DEC-laration of independence

Diversified Energy cut $233 million of debt in 1H26, repurchased $93 million of stock and sold $273 million of land and assets while…

DEC $959M
The Oak Bloke 7 clicks
LGCY · long

Legacy Education

Legacy Education operates six California campuses offering post-secondary nursing, physician assistant and surgical education.

LGCY $116M
Value Investors Club

A Venezuela Lottery Ticket for 41 Cents

Lionheart Holdings’ 41-cent CUBWW warrants hinge on a SPAC merger valuing KEO Energy’s Venezuelan PetroUrdaneta stake at $1 billion, versus…

CUB $285M
Triple S Special Situations Investing 7 clicks

[OTCM] Listings for the rest of us

OTC Markets gives smaller, distressed, and lightly disclosed companies a trading venue outside NYSE and Nasdaq, with lower listing barriers…

OTCM $650M
scuttleblurb 3 clicks

Seer

Seer trades at $2.04 against $3.90 per share of net cash as activists press a board that rejected five buyout proposals and won reelection.

SEER $115M
Triple S Special Situations Investing 4 clicks

Hidden in Plane Sight

An aerospace company’s profitable core is obscured by a long-running FAA development program; approval, abandonment, or shrinking losses…

ASLE $260M
The Mikro Kap 3 clicks

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