Big Tech Off-Balance Sheet Concerns
Big Tech’s $3 trillion AI commitments are disclosed and largely long-dated, with nearly 60% of Amazon’s $650 billion commitments falling after 2030.
Tuesday, August 25, 2026
From X
Broken Moats on X
Little perplexed you get more negative redemption stories around private credit, and the market only sells off the the the pure play PE companies. First derivatives are up? $MFC $FG $MET $WAL all have sizable exposure to the same asset class.....
Broken Moats on X
Almost a 40% spread opened up since the beginning of June (3 weeks ago!) between $MSFT and $SOXX Nearly 60% on $CRM and $SOXX... Buckle up
Broken Moats on X
FIS is framed as a deep-value payments opportunity amid an anticipated rotation out of semiconductor and mega-cap AI momentum names.
Broken Moats on X
Netflix's 200-day support sits near $70, with hosting costs and World Cup viewership pressure driving near-term negative momentum.
Broken Moats on X
Micron and Sandisk rely on large-cap tech’s rising equity, creating a circular spending trade vulnerable to capex cuts.
Broken Moats on X
Butterfly Network faces questions over Midjourney’s 50,000-unit ultrasound plan, whose pool-based body-composition spas cannot replace CT or MRI diagnostics and may carry heavy maintenance and capital costs.
Broken Moats on X
CarMax cut vehicle prices to lift sales, but lower gross profit, weak auto loans and Carvana competition leave significant challenges after earnings.
Broken Moats on X
Boston Scientific's revenue doubled and EBIT rose from $1.4 billion to $4.1 billion over five years, while Farapulse and Watchman growth slows and valuation embeds substantial expectations.
Investor Letters
All letters
SBLK 2026-08-25 Star Bulk Carriers: You Don't Need The Record Quarter
Kevin Avroutskii WLDN 2026-08-25 Willdan Group: The Q2 Beat-And-Raise Confirms The Inflection
Miletus Research 
Stripe’s “Singularity” and the Divergence from Adyen
Stripe’s net revenue rose 41% in 1H 2026 versus Adyen’s 21% FX-adjusted growth, fueled by AI-native startups and acquisitions including…
The Junk (Mail) Merger Arb
Star Equity’s $5 per-share Harte-Hanks acquisition offers $2.50 cash plus 0.25 STRRP per share after proration, against a $2 break price.
Core Memory
Airbnb Experiences faces a supply bottleneck from manual approvals, while a farm host raised her price from $15 to $25 after stronger…
$ELAL: El Al is a wartime monopoly at 2x EBITDA. Is that a trap? | ASB Partners
El Al trades near 2x EBITDA after wartime near-monopoly profits, with $1.3 billion of net cash and owned aircraft weighed against…
CCC Is in the Middle of the Wreckage
CCC, the dominant auto physical-damage claims estimator, connects 27 of the top 30 insurers with 31,000 repair shops as takeout rumors…
Aloe Aloe Aloe what 'ave VERRA then?
Verra Mobility's new seven-year Avis agreement replaces a customer worth over 10% of revenue on materially worse economics, exposing…
NCLH or her grandma Saga?
Norwegian Cruise Line’s $15 billion debt and 2026-27 capex delay deleveraging, despite fuel-efficient new ships and stronger projected 2028…
Jumia
Jumia’s January 2028 $7/$15 call spread risks $1.15 for up to $6.85 if cost cuts and marketplace growth deliver adjusted EBITDA and…
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