Big Tech Off-Balance Sheet Concerns
Big Tech’s $3 trillion AI commitments are disclosed and largely long-dated, with nearly 60% of Amazon’s $650 billion commitments falling after 2030.
Tuesday, August 25, 2026
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Software sold off as private-credit names MFC, ARES and FG rose alongside banks, with JPM up 14% in June. The valuation gap points to lower private-credit prices.
Broken Moats on X
ELF, CAVA, Shake Shack and Birkenstock surged 30% to 60% within weeks despite weak sales or lower outlooks, raising questions about rate, oil and short-squeeze driven retail rallies.
Broken Moats on X
SLP’s buyout follows years of value destruction from expensive acquisitions, service-heavy revenue and collapsing free cash flow. Its FDA-used simulation software remains the core asset for private equity.
Broken Moats on X
Dutch Bros has risen nearly 40% despite premium valuation as 7 Brew, Starbucks, McDonald’s, Dunkin and Swig intensify pricing pressure in refreshers and energy drinks.
Broken Moats on X
$BIRK misses earnings, stock drops and now with one $250m repurchase the stock has squeezed up 70% in less than a month....
Broken Moats on X
CAVA rose 30% in a week without news as Target and private-credit-exposed Ares also made sharp late-week moves.
Broken Moats on X
Magnite faces questions over its CFO departure, insider selling and AI risks outside connected TV as its ad-tech position consolidates.
Broken Moats on X
QXO’s pro forma capitalization is estimated at 1.1 billion shares and $8 billion of net debt after Kodiak, Beacon and TopBuild financing.
Investor Letters
All letters
SBLK 2026-08-25 Star Bulk Carriers: You Don't Need The Record Quarter
Kevin Avroutskii WLDN 2026-08-25 Willdan Group: The Q2 Beat-And-Raise Confirms The Inflection
Miletus Research 
Stripe’s “Singularity” and the Divergence from Adyen
Stripe’s net revenue rose 41% in 1H 2026 versus Adyen’s 21% FX-adjusted growth, fueled by AI-native startups and acquisitions including…
The Junk (Mail) Merger Arb
Star Equity’s $5 per-share Harte-Hanks acquisition offers $2.50 cash plus 0.25 STRRP per share after proration, against a $2 break price.
Core Memory
Airbnb Experiences faces a supply bottleneck from manual approvals, while a farm host raised her price from $15 to $25 after stronger…
$ELAL: El Al is a wartime monopoly at 2x EBITDA. Is that a trap? | ASB Partners
El Al trades near 2x EBITDA after wartime near-monopoly profits, with $1.3 billion of net cash and owned aircraft weighed against…
CCC Is in the Middle of the Wreckage
CCC, the dominant auto physical-damage claims estimator, connects 27 of the top 30 insurers with 31,000 repair shops as takeout rumors…
Aloe Aloe Aloe what 'ave VERRA then?
Verra Mobility's new seven-year Avis agreement replaces a customer worth over 10% of revenue on materially worse economics, exposing…
NCLH or her grandma Saga?
Norwegian Cruise Line’s $15 billion debt and 2026-27 capex delay deleveraging, despite fuel-efficient new ships and stronger projected 2028…
Jumia
Jumia’s January 2028 $7/$15 call spread risks $1.15 for up to $6.85 if cost cuts and marketplace growth deliver adjusted EBITDA and…
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