NCLH or her grandma Saga?
Norwegian Cruise Line’s $15 billion debt and 2026-27 capex delay deleveraging, despite fuel-efficient new ships and stronger projected 2028 profit.
Wednesday, August 19, 2026
Back to today
From X
catechwilliams on X
$J Beat earnings yesterday. Holding back detailed guidance for Investor Day (2/18)—likely raise ’25 #s, 4-year financial targets w significant upside on margins ($ACM and other peers +15% EBITDA margins). Record backlog and multi-year growth runway.
catechwilliams on X
$NX Rapidly declining levered (4x) commodity biz. Q1’25 guide -12% sales, mgmt hoping for 2H’25 recovery. End-mkts deteriorating ($OC -20% Q4 guide, $JELD), customer losses, internal controls issues, integrating a large acq, 0 prior M&A experience. +30x P/E on best case 2025 #s
catechwilliams on X
@StockJabber Thank you. As a read on $PLUS Q3 is tracking in October, $CSCO just reported -23% sales in networking (products account for ~50% of $PLUS revenue) for the Oct quarter-end. Further confirmation that PLUS Q3 is going to be ugly and no turnaround in sight.
catechwilliams on X
$PLUS Accelerating, sales -14% y/y in Q2, noted Q3 not improving yet implied FY guide is for flat sales (downward revisions to come). Margins benefitted from 1-time financing segment gain-on-sale. Still trading at a premium to higher quality industry leader CDW, makes zero sense.
catechwilliams on X
$AS 50x P/E levered retail roll-up w only one decent asset (Arc’teryx). Stagnating in the US, nearly fully-penetrated in China. >$500 jackets didn’t work for $GOOS in Asia. Arc already bigger. Hyper promotional mgmt sent the stock skyward. This is going to be an epic crash.
catechwilliams on X
$DAKT New $50M display upgrade award for the Miami Heat arena. Will be a nice boost to current quarter earnings (FQ2'25). https://t.co/sLAFBEerYi
catechwilliams on X
$NX Just acquired peer Tyman. >3x leverage, never done a deal before, commodity business, customers all cutting numbers w deteriorating resi remodel activity ($AMWD yesterday, $MBC, $OC, $JELD). Stock is trading at close to 14x EPS. Seen this movie before. Earnings next week.
catechwilliams on X
$PLUS Earnings on 8/5, expectations & stock disconnected from reality. Suppliers ($CSCO – 50% of product sales), competitors & customers all reporting sharp sales declines. Non-event PR today re a service they’ve been offering for 3 yrs is pumping stock; suggests mgmt is grasping
Investor Letters
All letters- Palm Harbour Capital July 2026 064850 $164M082920 $946M
- Protean Funds July 2026 DVYSR $91MSTOR-B $1.7B
- First Eagle Investments second quarter 2026 NE $7.1B
- RGA Investment Advisors Q2 2026 GTLB $8.2BMIPS $1B
- Royce Investment Partners Year-to-Date Through 6/30/26 ACA $7.2BADMA $2.1B
- Southeastern Asset Management 2Q26 ACI $5.9BCNX $4.9B
- Horizon Kinetics 2nd Quarter 2026 INFL LB $6.8B
- Ariel Investments Quarter Ended June 30, 2026 CLB $502MHAE $4.9B
Stock Trade Compilation Diez
E.W. Scripps, Team Internet, Monro, doValue and Inter & Co feature as special-situation trades involving mergers, asset sales, leverage and…
$DNOW: the boring distributor that could double on 2029 numbers | Firebird Management
DNOW’s MRC Global merger targets $75 million of synergies, with a 2029 bull case of $30 to $32 per share driven by cash flow and rerating.
Are Department Stores Finally Shortable?
Macy’s and Kohl’s face renewed short cases as their recent reratings ignore fading store-refresh gains, credit-card earnings exposure and…
Entravision Q2 Notes
Entravision’s ATS revenue rose 230% to $182.8 million in Q2, but shares fell from above $14 to about $8 after management forecast…
$UWMC lost $600m hedging a deal they'd already lost
UWMC booked a roughly $600 million Q2 hedging loss tied to TWO months after the deal collapsed, contributing to an expensive capital raise.
40 Stock Pitches (3rd-9th August)
Navient trades near 40% of tangible book as Gator Financial Partners argues private student-loan growth and restructuring can reverse its…
$HIMS: Paul Cerro wouldn't trust the CEO to walk his dog. He's still long. Why? | Cedar Grove
Hims & Hers investor Paul Cerro is long again on lab and patient data driving retention and LTV, despite management concerns, GLP-1…
These Power Stocks (Not Semis) Are The Real AI Beneficiaries, Say Investing Brother Duo Up 1,300%
Pernas Research names Capstone Energy and Stabilis Solutions as AI data-center power beneficiaries, alongside Tenable, Upwork, Wise and…
My Pitch Deck Slide Show from the MS Microcaps Summer Virtual Conference
Butler National Corporation is the subject of a stock pitch presented at the MS Microcaps Summer Virtual Conference.
DEC-laration of independence
Diversified Energy cut $233 million of debt in 1H26, repurchased $93 million of stock and sold $273 million of land and assets while…
LEEEF · long Leef Brands INC
LEEF Brands, California’s largest cannabis extract manufacturer, supplies distillate, live resin and rosin to leading California brands.
Perimeter Solutions: 2Q26 Business Recap
Perimeter Solutions’ 2Q26 revenue rose 31%, while operating income fell 11% as USDA pricing and DLA delivery timing hurt Fire Safety; it…
Floor & Decor: 2Q26 Business Update
Floor & Decor’s same-store sales improved to minus 2%, while $45 million of tariff refunds lifted second-quarter gross profit and operating…
A Venezuela Lottery Ticket for 41 Cents
Lionheart Holdings’ 41-cent CUBWW warrants hinge on a SPAC merger valuing KEO Energy’s Venezuelan PetroUrdaneta stake at $1 billion, versus…
[scuttleslops] BLDR, RYAN, APG, GFL, FND
Builders FirstSource reported Q2 2026 sales down 9% to $3.9 billion as weak housing demand and aggressive competitor pricing cut EBITDA…
Floor & Decor 2Q'26: Tentative Green Shoots
Floor & Decor held 2026 guidance after a 2Q beat, with comps improving through June; tariff refunds lifted margins and may fund pricing…
Vistance Networks (NASDAQ: VISN)
Vistance Networks plans a large post-Ruckus-sale dividend, leaving Aurora Networks valued below 4x guided EBITDA after $1.88 billion of…
Cematrix Corp ($CEMX.TO) FINS Review
Cematrix posted record Q2 revenue of $18.7 million, up 76%, and $3.5 million of net income, while backlog fell 9% from year-end.
[OTCM] Listings for the rest of us
OTC Markets gives smaller, distressed, and lightly disclosed companies a trading venue outside NYSE and Nasdaq, with lower listing barriers…
This Stock Just Got Cheaper on Better Numbers
A debt-free American manufacturer now trades at roughly 7x annualized Q2 EBITDA, with $7.35 per share in net cash and a tender floor 18.5%…
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A Capital
AltayCap
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catechwilliams
Charles Frischer
Chris Camillo
Clark Square Capital
Cluseau Investments
Colin King
Connor Haley
Conor Maguire | Value Situations
Convequity
David Orr
Deep Sail Capital
Devin LaSarre
DOMO Capital Management, LLC
Edwin Dorsey
Evan Tindell
Farmer
Fierce_beast
Fred Liu
Gavin Baker
Ian Bezek
Idea Brunch
JabroniCoin.USD
John_Hempton
junkbondinvestor
kab60
KEDM.com
Laughing Water Capital
Lee Roach
Little Owl Research
Maius
Maj Soueidan
marginofdanger
mavix
Mike
Mikro Kap David
Multiples Capital
Myles
Nat Stewart
Negligible Capital
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Odd Lot Arbitrageur
PAA Research
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RiverRoadPartners
Rusholme Capital
Sahil Khetpal
SG
Tim Eriksen
Timyan Bank Alert
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ToffCap
Trevor Scott
Voss Capital
Yaron Naymark
Investor letters we follow
- 1851 Capital
- Aikya Investment Management
- Akre Capital Management, LLC
- Alluvial Capital Management
- Alpinum Investment Management AG
- Ariel Investments
- Artisan Partners
- Askeladden Capital
- Asset Value Investors Ltd
- Baron Funds
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- Biglari Holdings
- Bireme Capital
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- Broyhill Asset Management
- Cantor Fitzgerald Asset Management
- Cedar Creek Partners
- Choice Equities
- Confluence Investment Management
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- Distillate Capital
- Dodge & Cox Stock Fund
- Donville Kent Asset Management Inc.
- FPA Crescent Fund
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- Forager Funds Management
- Fred Alger Management, LLC
- Giverny Capital
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- Invenomic Capital Management
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- Laughing Water Capital
- Lindsell Train Limited
- Macro Ops
- Maran Capital Management
- Markel Group
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- McIntyre Partnerships
- Merion Road Capital
- Myrmikan Capital, LLC
- O'Keefe Stevens Advisory
- Oakmark Funds
- Palm Harbour Capital
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- Patient Capital Management
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- PenderFund Capital Management Ltd.
- Pershing Square Holdings
- Polaris Capital Management
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- Polen Capital U.S. Opportunistic High Yield
- Praetorian Capital
- Protean Funds
- RGA Investment Advisors
- Rowan Street Capital
- Royce Investment Partners
- Sequoia Fund
- Southeastern Asset Management
- Third Avenue Management
- Tweedy, Browne
- Upslope Capital Management
- Vulcan Value Partners
- Wedgewood Partners
- Weitz Investment Management
- White Falcon Capital Management
Sectors
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