$DNOW: the boring distributor that could double on 2029 numbers | Firebird Management
DNOW’s MRC Global merger targets $75 million of synergies, with a 2029 bull case of $30 to $32 per share driven by cash flow and rerating.
Tuesday, August 18, 2026
Back to today 
From X
Ian Bezek on X
@House_Stark12 Think again. Arguably the only thing $OPEN is good at is issuing new stock. https://t.co/oUX7I8I2kY
Ian Bezek on X
Embarrassing press release. $OPEN Revenues fell 44% year-over-year. And they are still budgeting $110 million for SBC in Q3 alone. Absolutely shameful behavior. https://t.co/7vZtlVVy2j
Timyan Bank Alert on X
Conference Chatter: NBT Bancorp $NBTB eyes bank M&A; Community Financial seeks insurance opportunities | S&P Global Market Intelligence https://t.co/L1NY5yUkBc
JabroniCoin.USD on X
Timna on $CENX “early innings of broader FCF rebound.” “Hugely undervalued” at 1.5x their ‘27 EBITDA. $83 PT at 4x! Direction of numbers up, delta to street up, and lots of multiple rerate room imho https://t.co/8wkrmh5S83
JabroniCoin.USD on X
GS on $ACMR beat and 2026 raise. PT $164 2027 numbers and memory contribution (CXMT matter more) imho https://t.co/XXKNyhL8Gg
JabroniCoin.USD on X
“for the first time in over a decade, all Century assets should be operating at full capacity. I'm very proud to report today that our team has delivered” As expected, Q3 & Q4 will be when the real earnings power of $CENX is demonstrated. Still under-earning. Still bottleneck. https://t.co/Buw6H87Sed https://t.co/KyfyjMcJhq
Ian Bezek on X
@MoodyWriter13 Agreed, good quarter, excellent longer-term trajectory. Very happy to have a chunky position here. $INTR
JabroniCoin.USD on X
$ACMR https://t.co/iEnipv5cD6
Investor Letters
All letters- Royce Investment Partners Year-to-Date Through 6/30/26 ACA $7.2BADMA $2.1B
- First Eagle Investments second quarter 2026 CENX $3.9BCOHU $2.7B
- Southeastern Asset Management 2Q26 ACI $5.9BCNX $4.9B
- Horizon Kinetics 2nd Quarter 2026 LB $6.8BMIAX $3.8B
- Ariel Investments Quarter Ended June 30, 2026 HAE $4.9BMSGE $3.7B
- White Falcon Capital Management Q2 2026 EPAM $5.8BTOI $5.4B
- O'Keefe Stevens Advisory Q2 2026 SHC $5.3BCALY $2.6B
- Polaris Capital Management SECOND QUARTER 2026 CYTK $9.4BLNTH $6.5B
$HIMS: Paul Cerro wouldn't trust the CEO to walk his dog. He's still long. Why? | Cedar Grove
Hims & Hers investor Paul Cerro is long again on lab and patient data driving retention and LTV, despite management concerns, GLP-1…
Perimeter Solutions: 2Q26 Business Recap
Perimeter Solutions’ 2Q26 revenue rose 31%, while operating income fell 11% as USDA pricing and DLA delivery timing hurt Fire Safety; it…
Floor & Decor: 2Q26 Business Update
Floor & Decor’s same-store sales improved to minus 2%, while $45 million of tariff refunds lifted second-quarter gross profit and operating…
[scuttleslops] BLDR, RYAN, APG, GFL, FND
Builders FirstSource reported Q2 2026 sales down 9% to $3.9 billion as weak housing demand and aggressive competitor pricing cut EBITDA…
Floor & Decor 2Q'26: Tentative Green Shoots
Floor & Decor held 2026 guidance after a 2Q beat, with comps improving through June; tariff refunds lifted margins and may fund pricing…
$CBZ: stop the buybacks and restart the M&A flywheel? | Reference Equity
CBIZ activist Ryan Bunn urges ending buybacks, issuing equity and resuming bolt-on acquisitions to delever after the $2.3 billion Marcum…
Under The Hood - Sprouts Farmers Market, Inc.
Sprouts Farmers Market’s 483-store fresh-food format combines dedicated distribution, curated assortments and long-built site selection,…
$VEON: a busted EM telecom hiding a 4x? | Samit Umatiya, UIG Funds
VEON’s 84% Kyivstar stake and JazzCash underpin a sum-of-the-parts case for 4x upside, despite its sanctioned shareholder, capital…
Pershing Square Challenge 2026 finalists on MSA Safety: a hidden quality compounder? $MSA
MSA Safety’s Pershing Square Challenge finalists pitch gas-detection subscriptions, mandated SCBA replacement cycles and a 2023 liability…
Under The Hood, Wingstop Inc. ($WING)
Wingstop generates most of its $697 million revenue from franchise royalties across a 3,153-restaurant, 98%-franchised system while…
TDC · short Teradata CORP
Teradata is a short as its on-premises analytics business declines while enterprises shift workloads to cloud-native platforms.
A Hardware Multiple on a Software Powerhouse
A software powerhouse posts a record quarter while trading at a 52-week low, raising a valuation disconnect between its business model and…
Vidrala
Vidrala has grown from a Spanish glass-container maker into a multi-country packaging platform with expanding Latin American exposure.
Under The Hood: Domino's Pizza - $DPZ
Domino’s 99%-franchised model converts global retail sales into royalties and supply-chain revenue, but $4.8 billion of debt and mature…
Under The Hood, Pool Corporation - $POOL
Pool Corporation controls roughly 40% of US pool-product distribution, with maintenance representing 64% of sales as new-pool construction…
AXT’s Tongmei Problem: Great Asset, Fragile Economics
AXT’s 85.5%-owned Tongmei depends on offshore pricing, export approvals and transfer-pricing economics despite AI-optics demand.
Water and Power: The Dual Engines Driving LandBridge’s Explosive Growth
LandBridge outlined $300 million in pore-space free cash flow within five years; its Permian data-center project remains proof of concept.
Shift4 Company Podcast Episode Released!
Shift4 built its payments business by acquiring gateway nodes and migrating merchants to its processing platform; revenue has compounded…
The Great Rotation: Long Live the Old Economy — Weekly Treasure Hunt #04
Vaca Muerta’s $36–45-per-barrel breakevens, Milei reforms and $17 billion infrastructure buildout underpin the bullish case for Vista…
My Biggest Position: A Monopoly Priced for Failure
A former value-investor darling, down 50%, pairs a monopoly with a recurring-revenue razor-and-blade business; debt paydown, margin…
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Conor Maguire | Value Situations
Convequity
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DOMO Capital Management, LLC
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Ian Bezek
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JabroniCoin.USD
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mavix
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SG
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Timyan Bank Alert
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Investor letters we follow
- 1851 Capital
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- Akre Capital Management, LLC
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