Sunday, August 16, 2026

Will Hubspot go the way of the Dodo?

HubSpot trades near its 2020 share price despite quadrupled revenue and $750 million in free cash flow, with Breeze AI upside weighed against SEO-driven SMB churn risk.

HUBS $11B

The Oak Bloke Aug 16 9 clicks

Aug 14 DNOW $2.8B

$DNOW: the boring distributor that could double on 2029 numbers | Firebird Management

Yet Another Value Podcast 9 clicks

Aug 14 CRWV $47B

The AI Compute Squeeze

MBI Deep Dives 8 clicks

From X

@orrdavid Aug 16 3 clicks

David Orr on X

@keisan_15 Yes that is why I liked $MEDP

@orrdavid Aug 16 3 clicks

David Orr on X

I privately told a few fund managers I respect these investing themes/theses privately: "AI is going to drive far more medical/biotech research in pursuit of age reversal technologies than we had before. In fact, at least a couple of these are reasonably likely to be the most valuable companies on the planet in 10-20 years." and related, "Many of the old medical research companies are dinosaurs, since their tech will not keep up with the new age of AI driven medical research." I told them this at the start of 2025, and for example mentioned they avoid shorting $ARKG type stocks. I could tell they thought I was completely retarded, out of my mind, etc. A couple thoughts: 1. I bet those people don't think the idea is stupid at all today. and 2. Having a thesis that seems insane but is often wrong is *awesome*. It's a heads you win, tails you lose nothing situation. Besides $MEDP long, I didn't really know how to play the idea other than avoiding a bunch of shorts. These are theses I still very much believe today, and still today I don't see people talking about them.

@orrdavid Aug 16 2 clicks

David Orr on X

@olliejmorgan $MEDP was like this.

@irbezek Aug 16 2 clicks

Ian Bezek on X

@MoodyWriter13 I think $NBIS is as viable of a business as $OKLO is -- that is to say, a clear stock promote as opposed to a for-profit business. But little reason to post about it. The bulls have their view and reality will come for them in due time. I'm not going to change their mind.

@AltayCapital Aug 16 2 clicks

AltayCap on X

New writeup on the 'Stack. MegaChips (TYO 6875). After-tax stake in $SITM in the U.S. + NCAV is ¥19,842 vs ¥11,250 stock price. Operating biz is capital light and management aims for ¥10bn in OP in FY30. There's other financial assets too. mcap: ¥158.3 billion ($1 bn USD) https://t.co/gPhHG8P5nY

@irbezek Aug 15 4 clicks

Ian Bezek on X

@boujee_banker @Nobilis_Capital @HettyGreen2020 $FMX reports Bara data, it's growing double digits as well, albeit slower than $TBBB. https://t.co/hlJy1GhSnZ

@irbezek Aug 15 3 clicks

Ian Bezek on X

@sadvalueinvestr Anthropic buying Pacifico Airports $PAC at 25x EBITDA would be accretive to their earnings, and I'd be a willing seller at that price. Let's make a deal!

@irbezek Aug 14 2 clicks

Ian Bezek on X

@WaterworldCapi1 $jets Bad industry, oil might go up again, consumer spending may roll over, and the new "capacity discipline" is more lucky accident than strategic. Somebody, probably $aal will start dumping capacity on routes again and margins back to zero

Are Department Stores Finally Shortable?

Macy’s and Kohl’s face renewed short cases as their recent reratings ignore fading store-refresh gains, credit-card earnings exposure and…

M $5.8BKSS $1.9B

Bristlemoon Capital Aug 13 9 clicks

[scuttleslops] ZTS, APO, FISV, TTD, RELY

Zoetis’s U.S. companion-animal revenue fell 6% as dermatology competition drove rebates and discounts, pushing full-year net pricing to…

ZTS $30B

scuttleblurb Aug 13 9 clicks

The Impact of Autonomous Vehicles on Copart, A Timeline-Based Assessment - ($CPRT)

Copart faces a near-term lift from pricier AV repairs and total losses, but shrinking accident volumes could eventually force its…

CPRT $27B

Bearhold Research Aug 13 9 clicks

Permian Basin Q2 Update – Power, Water, Solid Waste, and Data Centers

GFL’s proposed acquisition of Secure follows 19% revenue growth at Secure and 14.8% EBITDA growth at GFL, with Permian produced-water and…

GFL $15B

310 Value’s Newsletter Aug 12 11 clicks

Entravision Q2 Notes

Entravision’s ATS revenue rose 230% to $182.8 million in Q2, but shares fell from above $14 to about $8 after management forecast…

EVC $727M

The Value Road Aug 11 13 clicks

$UWMC lost $600m hedging a deal they'd already lost

UWMC booked a roughly $600 million Q2 hedging loss tied to TWO months after the deal collapsed, contributing to an expensive capital raise.

UWMC $2BTWO $1.3B

Yet Another Value Blog Aug 11 11 clicks

Private Credit's Clock is Ticking w/ Glenn Schorr & Ken Worthington | The Real Eisman Playbook Ep 72

Glenn Schorr and Ken Worthington discuss risks in private-credit software loans, agentic AI at retail brokers, crypto use cases and bank…

SCHW $173BLPLA $26B

Steve Eisman Aug 10 13 clicks

Figma 2Q'26: Near-Term Re-acceleration vs. Long-Term Durability

Figma raised its 2026 revenue growth guide to 39%, but a roughly 1% sequential 3Q outlook and unchanged $125-135 million operating-income…

FIG $12B

MBI Deep Dives Aug 10 10 clicks

[V, MA] The more things change, the more they stay the same

Visa and Mastercard have absorbed digital wallets and BNPL into their networks, using global merchant acceptance to turn supposed…

MA $487B

scuttleblurb Aug 10 9 clicks

40 Stock Pitches (3rd-9th August)

Navient trades near 40% of tangible book as Gator Financial Partners argues private student-loan growth and restructuring can reverse its…

NAVI $855M

Capital Employed Aug 10 9 clicks

MIDD · long

Middleby CORP

Middleby trades at about 11 times EBITDA, below its history and peers, as a sharper management focus is expected to address the commercial…

MIDD $5B

Value Investors Club May 6

Uber Stock Breakdown (Five Minute Money)

Uber’s $50 billion revenue and $4.5 billion operating profit reflect a turnaround from years of subsidy-heavy growth, with autonomous…

UBER $145B

Speedwell Memos Jan 16 2 clicks

Hemnet – Broken Moat or Misunderstood Monopoly?

Hemnet’s Swedish listings monopoly has fallen from SEK420 to about SEK160 as growth slows, leaving investors to judge whether its 90% share…

HMNTY $669M

Bristlemoon Capital Dec 8

National Beverage Update

National Beverage’s rare share repurchase is framed as a buy signal, with 50% upside projected.

FIZZ $2.9B

Nat Stewart - Stock Picking Newsletter Nov 25 3 clicks

The Priority Technology Situation

Priority Technology received an opportunistic buyout proposal, with its business better suited to remaining public absent a much higher…

PRTH $643M

Nat Stewart - Stock Picking Newsletter Nov 11 5 clicks

Tis The (Earnings) Season

Argentine banks, tariff-exposed stocks and Customer’s Bancorp anchor an earnings-season watchlist after Milei’s election victory,…

CUBI $2.7B

Cluseau Research Oct 27 3 clicks

Drilling Down on Disposal: Parallels Between Produced Water and Municipal Waste Disposal

WaterBridge and Secure trade at 10–11x 2025 EBITDA despite produced-water disposal economics resembling higher-multiple municipal waste…

WBI $1.7B

310 Value’s Newsletter Oct 21 2 clicks

Fair Isaac Corporation (FICO) – Pricing Power Impaired?

Fair Isaac raised FICO Score royalties from roughly $0.50–$0.60 in 2022 to $4.95 in 2025, drawing regulatory scrutiny over its…

FICO $21B

Bristlemoon Capital Sep 11

Braemar Hotels & Resort: Gross Asset Management Contract, Initiated Sales Process

Braemar Hotels & Resorts initiated a sales process and faces a gross asset management contract.

BHR $124M

Clark Street Value Sep 5 3 clicks

Bristlemoon Capital on Business Breakdowns – MercadoLibre (MELI)

MercadoLibre’s Daniel Wu discusses MELI’s Latin American e-commerce operations, fintech business model, growth opportunities and risks on…

MELI $92B

Bristlemoon Capital Sep 5

David Orr on X

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