Sunday, August 16, 2026

Will Hubspot go the way of the Dodo?

HubSpot trades near its 2020 share price despite quadrupled revenue and $750 million in free cash flow, with Breeze AI upside weighed against SEO-driven SMB churn risk.

HUBS $11B

The Oak Bloke Aug 16 9 clicks

Aug 14 DNOW $2.8B

$DNOW: the boring distributor that could double on 2029 numbers | Firebird Management

Yet Another Value Podcast 9 clicks

Aug 14 CRWV $47B

The AI Compute Squeeze

MBI Deep Dives 8 clicks

From X

@orrdavid Aug 16 3 clicks

David Orr on X

@keisan_15 Yes that is why I liked $MEDP

@orrdavid Aug 16 3 clicks

David Orr on X

I privately told a few fund managers I respect these investing themes/theses privately: "AI is going to drive far more medical/biotech research in pursuit of age reversal technologies than we had before. In fact, at least a couple of these are reasonably likely to be the most valuable companies on the planet in 10-20 years." and related, "Many of the old medical research companies are dinosaurs, since their tech will not keep up with the new age of AI driven medical research." I told them this at the start of 2025, and for example mentioned they avoid shorting $ARKG type stocks. I could tell they thought I was completely retarded, out of my mind, etc. A couple thoughts: 1. I bet those people don't think the idea is stupid at all today. and 2. Having a thesis that seems insane but is often wrong is *awesome*. It's a heads you win, tails you lose nothing situation. Besides $MEDP long, I didn't really know how to play the idea other than avoiding a bunch of shorts. These are theses I still very much believe today, and still today I don't see people talking about them.

@orrdavid Aug 16 2 clicks

David Orr on X

@olliejmorgan $MEDP was like this.

@irbezek Aug 16 2 clicks

Ian Bezek on X

@MoodyWriter13 I think $NBIS is as viable of a business as $OKLO is -- that is to say, a clear stock promote as opposed to a for-profit business. But little reason to post about it. The bulls have their view and reality will come for them in due time. I'm not going to change their mind.

@AltayCapital Aug 16 2 clicks

AltayCap on X

New writeup on the 'Stack. MegaChips (TYO 6875). After-tax stake in $SITM in the U.S. + NCAV is ¥19,842 vs ¥11,250 stock price. Operating biz is capital light and management aims for ¥10bn in OP in FY30. There's other financial assets too. mcap: ¥158.3 billion ($1 bn USD) https://t.co/gPhHG8P5nY

@irbezek Aug 15 4 clicks

Ian Bezek on X

@boujee_banker @Nobilis_Capital @HettyGreen2020 $FMX reports Bara data, it's growing double digits as well, albeit slower than $TBBB. https://t.co/hlJy1GhSnZ

@irbezek Aug 15 3 clicks

Ian Bezek on X

@sadvalueinvestr Anthropic buying Pacifico Airports $PAC at 25x EBITDA would be accretive to their earnings, and I'd be a willing seller at that price. Let's make a deal!

@irbezek Aug 14 2 clicks

Ian Bezek on X

@WaterworldCapi1 $jets Bad industry, oil might go up again, consumer spending may roll over, and the new "capacity discipline" is more lucky accident than strategic. Somebody, probably $aal will start dumping capacity on routes again and margins back to zero

Are Department Stores Finally Shortable?

Macy’s and Kohl’s face renewed short cases as their recent reratings ignore fading store-refresh gains, credit-card earnings exposure and…

M $5.8BKSS $1.9B

Bristlemoon Capital Aug 13 9 clicks

[scuttleslops] ZTS, APO, FISV, TTD, RELY

Zoetis’s U.S. companion-animal revenue fell 6% as dermatology competition drove rebates and discounts, pushing full-year net pricing to…

ZTS $30B

scuttleblurb Aug 13 9 clicks

The Impact of Autonomous Vehicles on Copart, A Timeline-Based Assessment - ($CPRT)

Copart faces a near-term lift from pricier AV repairs and total losses, but shrinking accident volumes could eventually force its…

CPRT $27B

Bearhold Research Aug 13 9 clicks

Permian Basin Q2 Update – Power, Water, Solid Waste, and Data Centers

GFL’s proposed acquisition of Secure follows 19% revenue growth at Secure and 14.8% EBITDA growth at GFL, with Permian produced-water and…

GFL $15B

310 Value’s Newsletter Aug 12 11 clicks

Entravision Q2 Notes

Entravision’s ATS revenue rose 230% to $182.8 million in Q2, but shares fell from above $14 to about $8 after management forecast…

EVC $727M

The Value Road Aug 11 13 clicks

$UWMC lost $600m hedging a deal they'd already lost

UWMC booked a roughly $600 million Q2 hedging loss tied to TWO months after the deal collapsed, contributing to an expensive capital raise.

UWMC $2BTWO $1.3B

Yet Another Value Blog Aug 11 11 clicks

Private Credit's Clock is Ticking w/ Glenn Schorr & Ken Worthington | The Real Eisman Playbook Ep 72

Glenn Schorr and Ken Worthington discuss risks in private-credit software loans, agentic AI at retail brokers, crypto use cases and bank…

SCHW $173BLPLA $26B

Steve Eisman Aug 10 13 clicks

Figma 2Q'26: Near-Term Re-acceleration vs. Long-Term Durability

Figma raised its 2026 revenue growth guide to 39%, but a roughly 1% sequential 3Q outlook and unchanged $125-135 million operating-income…

FIG $12B

MBI Deep Dives Aug 10 10 clicks

[V, MA] The more things change, the more they stay the same

Visa and Mastercard have absorbed digital wallets and BNPL into their networks, using global merchant acceptance to turn supposed…

MA $487B

scuttleblurb Aug 10 9 clicks

40 Stock Pitches (3rd-9th August)

Navient trades near 40% of tangible book as Gator Financial Partners argues private student-loan growth and restructuring can reverse its…

NAVI $855M

Capital Employed Aug 10 9 clicks

RSI · long

Rush Street Interactive INC

Rush Street Interactive (RSI) is presented as a long investment idea.

RSI $2.5B

Value Investors Club May 5

CYD and H22 Results First Take:

CYD’s FY24 earnings miss reflected ¥200m of one-offs; adjusted net income reached roughly ¥430m and operating cash flow rose 40%.

CYD $1.3B

Maius Partners Feb 27 2 clicks

Insureco w/ Potential Strat Alts Announcement Soon + 100% Upside on Buyout ($TIPT)

Tiptree ($TIPT) is positioned around a potential Fortegra sale announcement; Fortegra generates substantially all revenue.

TIPT $651M

Multibagger Monitor Feb 25 7 clicks

Portfolio Updates

CYD was sold near $21 versus an $11 entry after exceeding a $19.50 target; proceeds moved to H22.SI, whose CYD stake implies $1.30 NAV and…

CYD $1.3B

Maius Partners Feb 24 4 clicks

Hong Leong Asia: Unveiling Undervalued Gems in CYD’s Parent Company

Hong Leong Asia (SGX: H22) has 40% base-case upside, driven by its CYD stake’s data-center opportunity and Singapore-Malaysia…

CYD $1.3B

Maius Partners Feb 11 1 click

Unpacking eDreams' Capital Markets Day

EDreams nears 7.25 million Prime members and €180 million of Cash EBITDA, marking its shift from an online travel agency to a…

EDDRF $520M

310 Value’s Newsletter Feb 6 1 click

Industrial and Commercial Bank of China

ICBC’s chairman describes embedding Chinese Communist Party leadership, anti-corruption campaigns and Xi Jinping Thought into governance at…

IDCBF $410B

John Hempton's Newsletter Nov 16

The Strategic Value of eDreams

EDreams’ Prime travel subscription model makes the €3.6 billion European OTA a potential Uber, Airbnb or Amazon acquisition target.

EDDRF $520M

310 Value’s Newsletter Oct 28 2 clicks

Inflecting Drone Company w/ Near-Term (+300% vs. -30%) Binary Event ($RCAT)

Red Cat’s Teal Drones is one of two remaining candidates for a $600 million to $1 billion-plus U.S.

RCAT $1.1B

Multibagger Monitor Jul 10 3 clicks

Sarepta Risk and the FDA

Sarepta’s Exondys 51 approval despite a 12-patient trial frames FDA regulatory risk and a call to remove Commissioner Robert Califf.

SRPT $2.2B

John Hempton's Newsletter Oct 31 1 click

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