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Market Cracks Under AI Debt Burden | The Weekly Wrap

Steve Eisman examines AI data-center debt, CoreWeave's tech correction and agentic AI's effect on banks as earnings season begins.

CRWV $34BBAC $377B

Steve Eisman 2h ago 1 click

26h ago CRWV $34B

Is The Market Turning The Page?

WHAT ARE WE DOING? “Contrarians At The Gate” 47 clicks

22h ago TBBB $6.8B

PesoRama: Research Flash

Atrium Research - Equity Research 2 clicks

From X

@BarbarianCap Oct 1

Barbarian Capital on X

Raytheon Gets $24.4 Billion Navy Contract for Standard Missile-6 Interceptors $RTX https://t.co/uNGS51L1bU

@BarbarianCap Oct 1

Barbarian Capital on X

ON Semicondcutor to Buy Synaptics for Cash, Not Stock, in Downsized Deal $ON $SYNA https://t.co/ZBg5wXAYaX

@SowingAlphaSeed Oct 1 3 clicks

Farmer on X

Would be more interesting if it was $QQQ, but something like this seems good for hedging the market melt up possibility. I'm curious to see if the margin requirement turns out to be the standard 15% on IBKR. https://t.co/3hvxvkfJ1H

@DOMOCAPITAL Oct 1

DOMO Capital Management, LLC on X

Is this bullish $PBI?? 🤣 https://t.co/mtBoKcxR8m

@leevalueroach Oct 1

Lee Roach on X

Good god $WY is getting low here. My guess is rates keep going up and assets like this trade down as people pour into yields. But eventually these become a load the boat up buy. Massive inflation hedges and owning large swaths of land creates multigenerational wealth. https://t.co/KvWmv9gBog

@calvinblissett Oct 1

Calvin Blissett on X

@JordanBoekel I have skimmed over $FINV, $LX made good money in $YUMC, looked at $PDD. I think management is even more important given regulatory risk and China and that is partly why I like $YB

@convequity Oct 1 3 clicks

Convequity on X

Renting AI capacity protects Microsoft ($MSFT) if the AI buildout busts. It leaves Microsoft exposed if compute gets scarce. On Q2 2026 data, Microsoft's implicit and off-balance-sheet infrastructure commitments were 17 times its headline borrowings according to our AI Bubble Barometer. 1. Microsoft signs a multi-year deal to rent capacity. The partner, a specialist AI cloud such as $IREN or Nebius ($NBIS), typically raises the capital, builds the site, buys the chips and owns the assets. 2. Construction risk, the risk that the GPUs lose value, and most of the financing sit with that partner and its lenders. 3. Microsoft swaps capital spending today for rental payments later. Compare Alphabet ($GOOGL) at 10.2 times. Almost all of its off-book commitments are purchase orders, $811bn of them, for chips and equipment Google will own. We read Microsoft's choice as less than full confidence in the buildout, and Google's as the opposite. In our view the market underweights the risk that compute gets scarce. The partners own any capacity beyond their Microsoft contracts and can sell it to whoever pays more. Microsoft would then have to wait or pay up, as it owns fewer of the data centres and chips it uses. That means higher compute costs and tighter margins. On our reading, Microsoft wins if AI demand falls short, because its partners carry most of the asset risk. If compute gets scarce, Microsoft loses, because renting gives it less control of supply, and Google wins because it will own the chips it ordered.

@P_Remarks Oct 1

Prepared Remarks on X

First $Orcl insider buy of >$1m since 2022 $3.5m from board member Stephen Rusckowski https://t.co/cmll9Lko4p

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Modine Deep Dive

Modine, soon Modexus Solutions, has a $4 billion hyperscaler cooling contract but must ramp factory output and restore margins as data…

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CV's Substack 26h ago 13 clicks

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CoreWeave’s 2032 notes yield over 15%, signaling a 54% default probability as borrowing costs exceed rental yields on AI infrastructure…

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Dustin Quasney 26h ago 19 clicks

AppLovin Deep Dive

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Speedwell Research 28h ago 20 clicks

Brookfield Asset Management: What If The AI Boom Backfires?

Brookfield Asset Management's fee revenue rose 16.2% and distributable earnings 15.8%, but its 18% five-year target relies on AI-led growth…

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Daniel Schönberger 32h ago 3 clicks

[scuttleslops] MRVL, APP, AMZN, Chips

Marvell is positioning networking, optical connectivity and server-management chips as AI data centers link GPUs, custom accelerators and…

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scuttleblurb 34h ago 9 clicks

AeroVironment: The Value Is There, Growth Will Force The Market To Notice

AeroVironment's $465M LOCUST laser award and earnings beat support its 2027 growth outlook despite government budget uncertainty.

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Melissa Tucker 34h ago 6 clicks

Constellation: Stars Aligning?

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TSOH Investment Research 35h ago 25 clicks

Breaking: The Offshore Monopoly Is Legal Now!

Transocean’s Valaris merger clears regulators, creating a 68-rig offshore driller controlling four in 10 global drillships.

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Cannibal Stocks 36h ago 36 clicks

October 2026 Random Ramblings

October 2026 market commentary covers SOLS’s cancelled merger, a hypothetical Starbucks-Chipotle deal, Russell 2000 weakness and AI…

SOLS $9.7BSBUX $109B

Yet Another Value Podcast Oct 14 84 clicks

Everyone wants to defend CoreWeave but who really knows

CoreWeave faces fresh skepticism as another AI trade selloff collides with bullish defenses of the company.

CRWV $34B

The Technology Letter 46h ago 4 clicks

SPHR · long

Sphere Entertainment CO

Sphere Entertainment is shifting from construction and startup spending to a high-margin, cash-generative venue-operator model, with…

SPHR $3.7B

Value Investors Club Jul 17 1 click

A Conversation With Ari Emanuel About Entertainment and AI

Ari Emanuel discusses AI’s impact on Hollywood, live events, social networks and the future of advertising.

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Stratechery by Ben Thompson – On the business, strategy, and impact of technology. 46h ago 6 clicks

RTX Q3 Preview: Two Growth Engines Make This Aerospace And Defense Leader A 'Buy'

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Blake Winiecki Oct 14 3 clicks

Coherent | Management Call

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P Equity Research Oct 14 17 clicks

Peabody Energy: The Recovery Case Depends On Centurion

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CAN Analyst Oct 14 1 click

Deep Dive: Applied Materials ($AMAT)

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Rebound Capital Oct 14 29 clicks

Research Roundup Vol. LVI

Howmet Aerospace is framed as a beneficiary of turbine and aircraft-engine demand, while J.B.

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Monte Independent Investment Research Oct 14 12 clicks

Palantir Is Not C3.Ai, But C3.Ai Wrote Its Watch List - Downgrade Palantir To Hold, Sell C3.Ai

Palantir is cut to Hold after a 35% multiple-driven rally, while C3.ai is rated Sell on stalled revenue, expensive valuation and weak…

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The Alpha Analyst Oct 14 8 clicks

Lennar: The Misstep Is Temporary, the Operating Machine Is Not

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Latticework by MOI Global Oct 14 13 clicks

Lennar, Part One: The Story

Lennar grew from a Miami builder into one of America’s two largest homebuilders, controlling land largely through options and land banks…

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Latticework by MOI Global Oct 14 13 clicks

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