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October 2026 Random Ramblings

October 2026 market commentary covers SOLS’s cancelled merger, a hypothetical Starbucks-Chipotle deal, Russell 2000 weakness and AI premiums for Oura and home builders.

SOLS $9.7B

Yet Another Value Podcast 18h ago 65 clicks

Oct 13 CARG $2.6B

CarGurus ($CARG): The Auto Trader of America, Priced Like a Used Car

Substack von Philipp 7 clicks

Oct 12 LYFT $6.2B

The Final Phase of This Bull Market Will Be Massive | Charles Lemonides

The Monetary Matters Network 6 clicks

From X

@finphysnerd 2h ago 2 clicks

Myles on X

I wanna short $SNAP so bad. I think for now I'll hold off until after earnings. https://t.co/TpKqIn7GjC

@kab604 4h ago

kab60 on X

$VTU.L raises guidance https://t.co/0Jb8yOedr1, Lithia also improved results in '25 https://t.co/9f3NNV1z5k - $GPI should improve as well https://t.co/NnYS2bSQy8

@LaughingH20Cap 7h ago

Laughing Water Capital on X

@bufetmastermind @secretlyaninja @mbamcnulty maybe i don't. I'd appreciate if you could explain. they had said 50% FCF margin on $1B in sales. $LQDA is still going to get to $1B in sales. Its just going to take longer. Tell me why 50% FCF margins are not in play. Bonus points if you can tell why they won't reduce costs

@BrokenMoats 11h ago 1 click

Broken Moats on X

Hottest trade in the past month.....retail stocks Seems odd with rates and oil and diesel moves over the same time frame. And these are not bounces from being oversold these are double digit moves in most cases to new highs while dpz struggled on their print this week, stocks like DKS collapsed around the time this trade started. Bifurcation in retail in recent weeks that seems to be favoring low quality. Something to watch for a reversal soon $KSS $FIGS $URBN $SHOP

@BlueDuckCap 11h ago 3 clicks

BDC on X

It's been 189 days since @evanspiegel had a confirmed sale. The longest sales void ever, per what we can discern from filings. He's in a blackout window now. If the sales do not resume post Q3 window opening then that would seem bullish. We would love an insider buy, too. Evan buys stock here we would think $SNAP is +10% on that day. At least. Not advice. Just pointing out the cadence of form 4's and lack of historical insider buying.

@ACapitalLP 11h ago 3 clicks

A Capital on X

$KYIV https://t.co/bGd6IJ4Xl0

@DeepSailCapital 13h ago 1 click

Deep Sail Capital on X

$DJT Downside still 100% from here https://t.co/6YIEeHfC3e

@BrokenMoats 13h ago 3 clicks

Broken Moats on X

Quickly back to very attractive levels to put back on short exposure on the software sector after the manic move in Q3 and digestion in September before the sudden crash up in the past 10 days..... AI wins software is in trouble - faster disruption more competition, pricing pressure AI trade is over, software is going to catch down as the market will tank and this won't sit that out (the are not cheap) Disruption and pricing is the tailwind, now valuation is too. Rates don't hurt either as up until recently these were considered long duration assets Recent results were status quo for most (no real acceleration) and pitch AI cohort growth as growing xx% but its not uplifting the total growth they are just changing what they charge for to show the street what it wants to hear) -- that phase is over, valuations are in many cases at year and multi year highs. SBC still a problem. Now comes renewals in the back of this year and thats where the issues will start to emerge on retention and pricing. An thats day 1 they will snowball overtime for the vast majority of these companies. Plenty of names to choose from: $PAYC $DOCU $TEAM $DDOG $PCTY $GDDY $RNG

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Bristlemoon September 2026 Quarterly Letter

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Substack von Philipp Oct 12 6 clicks

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You Understand Now, Why You Came This Way

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An open letter to Senator Elizabeth Warren

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