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Sunday, November 15, 2026

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From X

@aleabitoreddit

Serenity on X

My thesis is very narrow. It's also no longer speculation when it shows up in reported earnings. HBM is a very large component cost in an AI server and not what I'm arguing. There's also many bottlenecks outside of memory. An obvious example is $AXTI InP substrates, where not securing enough capacity (where cost is in hundreds of millions) would trigger ceilings to competitor optical programs. And we'd likely see accelerated procurement patterns into 2027 where capacity is hard to scale.
@StableBread

Fajasy on X

Where tf did all those crap accounts and "analysts" who pitched buying $CCXI (now $AGLT), pumpers, and degens go? I thought I was regarded for not buying the only humanoid listed company in the U.S!!! ... At least according the 4-5 accounts that blocked me for calling out their sh*t DD or simply disagreeing w/their thesis. Thought it was supposed to run up 500% post SPAC like FinTwit claimed??! Thought I was completely missing the point?? "99% of households haven't heard of the stock. Imagine when they do." That was another one of the "arguments" I heard quite often. 😅 Even offered my full deep dive for completely free to read. 🤷‍♂️
@ACapitalLP 1 click

A Capital on X

On a serious note, $CODI is one of the more glaring mispricings I’ve ever seen. People can argue whether NAV is $25 or $40/share, but I’m convinced that if you liquidated the entire company tomorrow, the assets would be worth at least 2x where the stock trades today. So why does this divergence exist? And more importantly, what closes the gap? Asset sales, replacing management, simplifying the structure, eliminating the governance discount? You don’t even need the stock to trade at 100% of NAV. What gets it to 80%? And at $12/share, how much downside are you really underwriting relative to the potential upside? That’s the asymmetry that interests me. I just don’t think there’s enough eyeballs on this given the size…
@ACapitalLP

A Capital on X

The biggest money in public markets is made when perception diverges dramatically from reality. Think of betting on sports on Kalshi/Polymarket. You’re not making a fortune betting on the #1 team to beat the #2 team. You’re making it betting on the 99-to-1 underdog when you realize the odds are completely wrong… A few situations that come to mind: - PSPs ($CIFR, $WULF, $APLD, $RIOT): Financing fears vs. the value of contracted power and development pipelines. - $TLN: PJM regulatory overhang vs. underlying FCF generation. - $FSLR: Fears of losing 45X credits vs. durable domestic manufacturing economics. What other situations fit this framework?

Investor Letters

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Q3 Earnings Updates

Q3 updates cover Crocs, Entravision and Fiserv beats, coal and oil weakness, and Xerox’s sharp decline, testing the underlying cases for…

CROX $7.5BEVC $874M
Hidden Rock Capital's Newsletter 3 clicks

TSOH Weekly Roundup (11/13/2026)

Tripadvisor’s CEO and CFO will depart after weak Q3 results, while Roblox’s CEO discusses AI and Berkshire repurchases $9.6 billion of…

TRIP $853M
TSOH Investment Research 3 clicks

Qure Anniversary Update

UniQure’s Huntington’s disease BLA has a May 1, 2027 priority-review date, with an FDA advisory committee expected in late first quarter.

QURE $1.7B
Triple S Special Situations Investing 2 clicks
BW · short

Babcock & Wilcox

Babcock & Wilcox is priced for AI power demand despite a one-time related-party project, with FY2028 EBITDA 35% below consensus implying…

BW $635M
Value Investors Club 2 clicks

Portillo’s: Strategic Reset

Portillo’s reset follows weak Texas unit economics, cutting next year’s openings to five from roughly 10 annually and shrinking store…

PTLO $486M
TSOH Investment Research

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