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Saturday, November 14, 2026

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@StableBread

Fajasy on X

Agility Robotics $AGLT, the maker of the Digit humanoid robot, now expects early access to Digit 5, its next-generation model, to begin in H1 2027. Digit 5 would reach early customers in December, President Daniel Diez told Forbes in August. In my September 6 deep dive, I called the December date the one to watch. Agility gave the new timeline in its Q3 financials, filed November 13 alongside the final 10-Q of Churchill Capital Corp XI, the SPAC it merged with on November 4. Holders of 61.5% of the SPAC's public shares redeemed them for ~$10.29/share, taking ~$261.8M out of the trust. So Agility netted ~$334.1M from the deal, plus the $100M of SAFEs it raised in July. In the S-4 (the merger filing), the no-redemption case came to ~$576M. The Q3 financials also show: → Cash: $64.9M as of September 30, down from $103.0M at the end of 2025, even after the $100M of SAFEs. → Burn: $131.6M of operating cash outflow in the first nine months, up 87% y/y, plus $6.8M of capex. → Revenue: $0.36M in the first nine months, down 79% y/y, since 2025's one-time robot sales didn't repeat. Add the deal's ~$334.1M to September 30 cash, and Agility has ~$399M. At the first nine months' pace of ~$184M/year, including capex, the ~$399M lasts a little over two years, with Digit 5's rollout now running through 2027. The closing release did add two customer updates: $GXO, the logistics company, will deploy Digit at two more U.S. sites starting in early 2027, and $AGCO, the farm equipment maker, will pilot Digit in 2027, with no order sizes given. At $7.36/share, $AGLT's market cap is ~$2.26B on ~307M shares, counting ~61.0M options and RSUs and 4.2M warrants. My deep dive valued the 1,000-robot Digit 5 order book alone at $4.69-7.66/share, at 10-20x its ~$100M of yearly revenue plus cash. Redone with the actual cash and share count, the range is closer to $4.55-7.81/share, and $AGLT now trades inside the range. $AGLT also trades 28% below the ~$10.29/share redeeming holders received, and below the ~$7.72/share the July SAFE investors paid. My deep dive said I'd only consider buying after the post-close washout, once the lock-up supply clears and Digit 5's ramp is clearer. The washout came, but the other two conditions haven't: 1) Lock-up supply: Agility's existing holders and the sponsor stay locked up until early May 2027, and the PIPE's 20.1M shares, more than the ~16M public shares left after redemptions, are being registered for resale. 2) Digit 5: Early access now starts in H1 2027 instead of December, with wider availability over the following 6-9 months.
@ACapitalLP

A Capital on X

Moves like this $ADIG should not happen absent some genuinely unforeseen event or force majeure. If a public company is even remotely transparent with investors, expectations shouldn’t be so far removed from reality that a single earnings report wipes out 40–50% of its market cap. Granted, this is probably more common in smaller companies with limited analyst coverage, but if I were a public company CEO and this happened on my watch, I’d consider it a serious failure of investor communication and expectation management…
@StableBread

Fajasy on X

Reviva Pharmaceuticals $RVPH now plans to apply to relist on Nasdaq in H1 2027, and its December 18 annual meeting asks shareholders to approve a reverse split of up to 1-for-100 to get there, nine months after its last one. Nasdaq suspended $RVPH on May 14 for trading below its $1.00 minimum bid price, and the stock has traded on the OTC since. At $0.35/share, $RVPH's market cap is ~$4.6M against $17.5M of cash as of September 30, or ~26% of its ~$1.33/share of cash. In my August 20 update, I wrote that steady ATM dilution looked paused, since Reviva said it doesn't expect to use its $50M ATM (selling new shares straight into the market) while it's quoted on the OTC. $RVPH's Q3 10-Q, filed November 13, says the same, and adds that the shelf registration behind the ATM expires February 13, 2027. And a company Reviva's size (under $75M of public float) needs an exchange listing to file a new shelf. RECOVER-2, the second Phase 3 trial of Reviva's schizophrenia drug brilaroxazine, plus the approval filing will cost $50-55M, CEO Laxminarayan Bhat said on an April fireside chat, about 3x Reviva's cash. The 10-Q says Reviva has no committed external sources of capital, and the Q3 earnings release still lists partnering as "pursuing partnership opportunities." So I read the reverse split and the relisting as the end of the pause in dilution: Back on Nasdaq, Reviva could sell stock again, through a new shelf or a public offering, to cover most of the $50-55M before RECOVER-2 starts. Cash fell $2.4M in Q3, and Reviva still says the $17.5M covers outlays "into the third quarter of 2027," close to the "into July 2027" it gave in August. The U.S. patent office also granted Track One priority examination to the patent application on a new formulation of brilaroxazine, which could extend the drug's protection to 2046. Track One aims for a final decision within ~12 months, and the decision can be a rejection.
@StableBread

Fajasy on X

108.4m @ 25.2g/t indium from drill hole WD26-01 is still the best assayed result of 2026 at American West Metals’ $AWMLF West Desert zinc-indium deposit in Utah. At West Desert, $AWMLF has finished five more holes (WD26-04 to WD26-08) since my August write-up. WD26-07, the westernmost so far, hit a combined 140m of visual copper and zinc sulfides and 219m of visual molybdenite, while WD26-05 and WD26-06 hit visual zinc, molybdenite, and copper oxides. Those are geologists’ visual estimates, and the October 30 quarterly report expected assays for WD26-06 and WD26-07 within 1-2 weeks, and for WD26-08 within 4-6 weeks. I found no assays for WD26-03 in $AWMLF’s releases through November 9, even though the July 31 quarterly expected them within weeks. So the 2026 program’s assayed results are still the June and July ones. $AWMLF also hired GreenMet, a Washington advisory group led by former U.S. critical minerals official Drew Horn, to pursue U.S. government funding and offtake (the right to buy its output) for West Desert. GreenMet is $AWMLF’s second Washington advisor in 2026, after Ervin Graves Strategy Group in February, and the company still hasn’t disclosed any U.S. government funding. Meanwhile, the Defense Logistics Agency (DLA), which buys for the U.S. stockpile, cancelled its July request for 400+ tonnes of indium on September 30 without an award, since traders said the request was more than the market could supply. So the stockpile’s indium purchase is off for now, and the failed request showed how thin supply is outside China (~400 tonnes/year, by one trader’s estimate). Thin supply is still the argument for funding a U.S. source like West Desert, but no agency has funded one yet. Metallurgical samples from West Desert’s historical waste dumps, one of the two extra sources of metal I flagged in August, have been shipped for test work, with no results yet. So I still don’t attach any value to West Desert in my base case. Its value in my bull case depends on the WD26-06 and WD26-07 assays confirming what geologists logged in the core.

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