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Saturday, November 14, 2026

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@ACapitalLP

A Capital on X

On a serious note, $CODI is one of the more glaring mispricings I’ve ever seen. People can argue whether NAV is $25 or $40/share, but I’m convinced that if you liquidated the entire company tomorrow, the assets would be worth at least 2x where the stock trades today. So why does this divergence exist? And more importantly, what closes the gap? Asset sales, replacing management, simplifying the structure, eliminating the governance discount? You don’t even need the stock to trade at 100% of NAV. What gets it to 80%? And at $12/share, how much downside are you really underwriting relative to the potential upside? That’s the asymmetry that interests me. I just don’t think there’s enough eyeballs on this given the size…
@StableBread

Fajasy on X

FORT Robotics, the robot-safety maker going public through the SPAC Newbury Street II $NTWO, grew revenue 53% in the first nine months of 2026 and still ended September with $1.7M of cash. The S-4 (merger filing) out November 13 says FORT's losses and low cash "initially raised substantial doubt" about the company staying in business for the next year. Management says the doubt is gone now that existing investors committed $10.0M of new SAFEs from October 21 to November 6, and FORT drew $1.5M more on its bank loans. Operating expenses grew faster than sales, mostly from hiring and from preparing to go public. After holders redeemed 82% of the public shares on October 28, the S-4 estimates $36.0-54.2M of cash at closing after costs, including the $10.0M of SAFEs. The August investor deck showed $181.8M to FORT after costs, with no redemptions. Estimated deal costs barely moved, from $19.0M in the deck to $17.8M in the S-4, so the deal spends $0.33-0.49 on costs for every $1 FORT keeps. The price stayed the same: FORT's holders still get 50.0M shares and options at $10.00 each ($500M). Newbury's board approved the $500M price without a fairness opinion (an outside adviser's view that the price is fair), and the S-4 says the board "did not receive any financial projections of Fort Robotics." At $10.89/share, the combined company's EV is ~$582M whether or not more holders redeem, or 36.7x FORT's $15.9M of TTM revenue. At the 7.5-11.2x sales multiples I used in my September 16 deep dive, FORT needs $52-78M of revenue to justify ~$582M, 3.3-4.9x its TTM revenue. In my November 8 update, I said I'd wait for the S-4 to show what the cash would fund before considering $FROB (the post-merger ticker). FORT CEO Samuel Reeves pitched the deal's cash on the August 18 investor call for product development, a bigger sales push, and acquisitions. At $36.0-54.2M, the cash looks more like runway: ~3.6-5.5 years at the ~$9.9M/year FORT burned through September.
@ACapitalLP

A Capital on X

The biggest money in public markets is made when perception diverges dramatically from reality. Think of betting on sports on Kalshi/Polymarket. You’re not making a fortune betting on the #1 team to beat the #2 team. You’re making it betting on the 99-to-1 underdog when you realize the odds are completely wrong… A few situations that come to mind: - PSPs ($CIFR, $WULF, $APLD, $RIOT): Financing fears vs. the value of contracted power and development pipelines. - $TLN: PJM regulatory overhang vs. underlying FCF generation. - $FSLR: Fears of losing 45X credits vs. durable domestic manufacturing economics. What other situations fit this framework?

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