New Ask Claude or ChatGPT about any stock, using Bullpen. Bullpen in Claude or ChatGPT. 7 days free
Bullpen.News From Edwin Dorsey
Get Daily Recap Feedback

Wednesday, November 11, 2026

Back to the front page

From X

@StableBread

Fajasy on X

Elmet $ELMT, the U.S. tungsten parts maker, reported a record $347.4M backlog for Q3, with two U.S. defense stockpile awards making up $197.5M (56.9%) of the total. The Defense Logistics Agency (DLA), which runs the National Defense Stockpile, has funded $161.9M so far under its contract to buy up to $2B of tungsten ore and concentrate from $ELMT, already more than the $150M minimum it guaranteed. Each order under the contract can take up to 48 months to deliver, and $ELMT said in its October 1 deck that it doesn't intend to start deliveries "until sufficient incremental new supply is available." I wouldn't expect much of the $161.9M to show up in revenue before 2027. The other $35.6M is a DLA award for mostly molybdenum products that $ELMT's plants already make, and the 10-Q's own chart counts it in the $149.5M of aerospace and defense backlog. Take out both and backlog is $149.9M, up 14.0% from $131.5M as of July 3 and 71.7% from $87.3M as of September 30, 2025. In my August 16 update, I said I wanted to see the first backlog print with the new defense appropriation cycle. Without the two stockpile awards, aerospace and defense backlog grew 15.8% in Q3 to $113.9M, a bit slower than its 16.5% growth in Q1 and 17.8% in Q2. I don't see a step-up from the new appropriation cycle yet, and part of the growth is price: The 10-Q credits "tungsten material price flowing through to our end product pricing" without splitting price from volume.
@StableBread

Fajasy on X

Elmet $ELMT, which makes tungsten and molybdenum parts for U.S. missiles and jets, saw its main division's gross margin rise to 31.8% in Q3 from 20.1% a year earlier, and management credits the jump mainly to how it bought and priced tungsten during Q1 2026's price spike. Revenue rose 55.6% to a record $79.6M, and tungsten products went from 14.8% of $ELMT's shipments in Q3 2025 to 33.6% in Q3 2026, which the 10-Q attributes to (1) price increases tied to higher input costs and (2) more volume from aerospace and defense customers. Meanwhile, $ELMT's microwave products division, which makes radio-frequency systems rather than tungsten parts, grew revenue just 4.4%, and its gross margin fell to 26.1% from 30.7%. $ELMT values its inventory on a first-in, first-out (FIFO) and average-cost basis, so Q3's cost of goods sold still reflected tungsten bought earlier in the run-up, while $ELMT's selling prices had already risen with the market. Its $152.8M of inventory as of October 2, up from $69.7M as of December 31, equals ~8 months of Q3's cost of goods sold, so most of what's on hand was bought after prices took off. Since then, tungsten prices have stalled: European ammonium paratungstate (APT), the traded form of tungsten, was quoted at $2,500-3,100 per metric ton unit (MTU, 10 kg of tungsten trioxide) in the week to November 5, per Shanghai Metals Market, vs. $2,900-3,100 on September 10. Q3's adjusted EBITDA margin was 21.3%, up from 12.0% in H1 2026. Unless tungsten climbs again, I'd treat part of the jump as a timing gain that fades as inventory bought at 2026 prices flows through. In my July 2 write-up, I picked $ELMT as the safest way to own China's tungsten squeeze, since it makes the parts instead of mining the ore. Q3 shows $ELMT's margins still move with the tungsten price, just with a lag. $ELMT's own 2031 plan assumes APT at $1,500/MTU, 40-52% below the November 5 quote.
@StableBread

Fajasy on X

Quantum $QMCO, the tape library maker, just reported a record backlog of nearly $100M as of September 30, more than double the record $45M as of March 31! $QMCO’s revenue rose 42.9% to $89.6M in the September quarter (fiscal Q2), $5.6M above the top of its $82.0M ±$2M guidance, and adjusted EBITDA of $11.1M beat the top of its $6M ±$1M guidance by $4.1M. Secondary storage, mainly tape systems, grew 126.2% from a year earlier to $44.7M, half of revenue, up from 32%, with hyperscale demand up more than 2.6x. CEO Hugues Meyrath said on the March-quarter call in June that $QMCO “should see a lot more tape drives” from $IBM, its drive supplier, in the September and December quarters, letting it convert its tape library backlog into revenue. Instead, backlog more than doubled, and Meyrath said on the September-quarter call that demand remained ahead of supply, “particularly media and tape.” He said $IBM’s “statement of direction” is to double its tape drive output year-over-year, but “we just don’t know how quickly IBM is going to ramp tape drives.” Chief accounting officer Hiral Patel added that revenue beat guidance “primarily due to price and volume mix,” and that she expects pricing volatility from component shortages “to remain a headwind going forward.” $QMCO guided December-quarter revenue to just $91.0M ±$2M, up 1.5% at the midpoint, and said any upside depends on how many components it can get. It also guided adjusted EBITDA down to $9.1M ±$1M from $11.1M, as operating expenses rise with commissions and R&D hiring. That revenue guidance still runs at $364M/year, above the $360M of FY2028 revenue (year ending March 2028) in the base case of my October 28 update. At $19.70/share after hours, close to the $20.25 in that update, $QMCO’s EV is 2.4x TTM revenue, down from 2.8x. It’s also 21.6x the December quarter’s adjusted EBITDA guidance, annualized, down from 34.4x the September quarter’s. So I read the quarter as $QMCO already running at my base case’s revenue, with the bull case’s $400M still depending on $IBM’s drive supply. What I’d want to see in the December-quarter results: 1) IBM: Meyrath saying $IBM’s tape drive output rose, since my bull case assumes it ramps early in 2027. 2) Backlog: Revenue above the $93M top of guidance and backlog below ~$100M, which would mean $QMCO is shipping orders faster than new ones come in. 3) Gross margin: Holding near the September quarter’s 41.0%, even though the guidance midpoints imply under 40% by my math.
@DOMOCAPITAL

DOMO Capital Management, LLC on X

Disagree. Irrelevant. $ZD sold a single business segment for more than its entire market cap and I'm not even sure it was 20% of total revenues. $CBIZ another example. If $MNRO is selling separate segments to separate entities then even less relevant. In regards to the dividend, that too, makes zero sense. Why would they get financing that carves out (excepts) the December dividend and then go ahead and cancel it? They're telling you they expect to sell the company by the time they report earnings again.

Investor Letters

All letters

Seed Corn

Chiron’s failed $49 million Beaumont sale and $178 million Pinnacle acquisition leave XRN with $70 million of liquidity and medical-office…

XRN $372M
Orphan REITs 3 clicks

Post Q3 EVC Update

EVC's Q3 update cites $30 million for a single station, a broadcast-business sale and stronger positioning for 2027.

EVC $832M
Nat Stewart - Stock Picking Newsletter 26 clicks

Entravision Q3 Update

Entravision’s Q3 ad-tech revenue reached $177.2 million, up 133% year over year, while total revenue rose 88% to $226.3 million and diluted…

EVC $832M
The Value Road 4 clicks

GREAT DEC-TECTIVE WORK

Diversified Energy reported $255.6 million of “true” nine-month free cash flow, while its $1.8 billion Birch acquisition would shift…

DEC $900M
The Oak Bloke 4 clicks

Verra veerer

Verra Mobility’s Avis termination threatens 2027 earnings, while Government Solutions profit rose 25% and implied fourth-quarter guidance…

VRRM $333M
The Oak Bloke 3 clicks
SRTA · long

Strata Critical Medical INC

Strata Critical Medical, SRTA, supplies organ-transport products tied to U.S. transplant growth.

SRTA $498M
Value Investors Club 3 clicks

Stranded Indium-Phosphide

Aeva’s high-power InP SOA design could supply NPO/CPO optical modules at roughly 17% gross margins, versus 51% for eight discrete DFB…

AEVA $835M
Irrational Analysis

Clear the DEC?

Diversified Energy (DEC) has paid $21.84 per share in dividends since June 2017 and trades at $13.35 amid a bullish U.S.

DEC $900M
The Oak Bloke 3 clicks

Groupon Built a Brain

Groupon is building an AI “Brain” to personalize its app for each user, turning its turnaround plan into a product initiative.

GRPN $488M
Mispriced Assets

Quick Value #322 - FuboTV (FUBO)

Fubo's Hulu Live merger leaves Disney with 70% ownership and resets its 2028 EBITDA target to $300 million; at $10, it trades at 4.2 times…

FUBO $840M
Value Don't Lie

What Amazon Can't Buy

Betterware de Mexico sells locally designed home organizers through direct sellers in informal neighborhoods, generating 67% gross margins;…

BWMX $673M
Phynvesting 1 click

Matan on Stitch Fix

Stitch Fix’s rushed Freestyle pivot cannibalized its profitable Fix business, driving active clients below 3.4 million, quarterly revenue…

SFIX $348M
MBI Deep Dives 2 clicks

Publications we follow

Every publication on this site, hand-picked.

130 publications

Newsletters 110

YouTube 4

Blogs 15

Seeking Alpha 82 of 282

Nominate a publication

X accounts we follow

Every account on this site, hand-picked.

91 accounts
Nominate an account

Investor letters we follow

369 firms

Sectors

Ordered by how often our editor reaches for them.