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Tuesday, November 10, 2026

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The AutoNation Story

AutoNation shed rentals and megastores, focused on dealerships, and retired 91.1% of its shares through buybacks after its 1990s roll-up collapse.

AN $6.1B
Cannibal Stocks 1 click

From X

@StableBread

Fajasy on X

Elmet $ELMT, which turns tungsten into parts for U.S. missiles and jets, has raised $325.4M in 2026, including its April IPO and $200M from the U.S. Department of War (DoW), and ~$81M of cash was left after it paid for stakes in two tungsten miners in October. $124.7M bought 4.99% of Masan High-Tech Materials (UPCoM: MSR), $ELMT's longtime Vietnamese supplier, and $24.7M bought 3.5M shares, plus warrants, of Blue Moon Metals $BMM, owner of the Springer tungsten mine in Nevada. Operations used another $60.7M through October 2 ($53.1M in Q3 alone), mostly to build inventory, which more than doubled to $152.8M from $69.7M as of December 31. Counting the $124.7M set aside for Masan as cash, net cash went from the $60.5M I calculated after the DoW deal in my September 17 update to ~$0 as of October 2. At $21.99, $ELMT is 4.4% below the $23 I used in September, but its EV rose to ~$811M from $784M, mostly because of the Q3 inventory build. The DoW's remaining $250M can't arrive before March 2027, comes in at most $50M per six-month window, and each draw has to name its use and meet the DoW's conditions. $ELMT's plan for the DoW money still has more than $290M to fund: (1) $165M+ to upgrade and expand its three U.S. plants, (2) $75M for its 70% of the joint venture restarting Springer's processing plant, and (3) a $50M advance to Blue Moon against future Springer tungsten. So until the first DoW draw lands, any spending on Springer, the plant upgrades, or more inventory comes from the ~$81M of cash, $18.1M of unused credit lines, and whatever cash the business generates.
@majgeoinvesting

Maj Soueidan on X

Almost got super excited about $AEYE Q3 inflection to profitability that they reported. There’s also been some major insider buying and they’re buying back a good deal of stock. However, these fuckers use EBITDA as their adjusted EPS - a little sneaky. I’m still watching, but not nearly as excited as I was. I mean, it’s still a potential breakout because the company reported a GAAP profit for the first time in its recent history. So, you can potentially value the company on price or EV to revenue, which is looks to be around 4x, which seems about fair. EV/EBITDA is around 13x. They sells software and services that help businesses make websites accessible to people with disabilities and just launched “Agentic Audits and tools” that integrate accessibility intelligence into AI coding workflows Need to figure out where revenue has to get to in order to get to profitability on a real adjusted income basis and if analyst estimates are GAAP or adjusted EPS and not EBITDA. Shame on analysts if they’re using EBITDA. @MicrocapDr It appears that they are - looks like they’re just using the company’s adjusted EBITDA guidance.😂 lazy If you look at the GAAP history, they’ve been losing a ton of money, but the estimates (in green) are much higher. Financial matrix source: @InfoArbMonitor
@aleabitoreddit

Serenity on X

If you look at CW laser ASPs for AI data centers, the pricing differences are pretty substantial: 70mW: ~$3–4 100mW: ~$4–6 (Source Photonics channel checks). With some premiums apparently going up to $7-$9 range with the recent shortage for pluggables. 120–150mW NPO: ~$15–20 350mW UHP CW: ~$40 (Nomura) 400mW UHP CW for NPO/CPO: ~$50–75 (Mizuho) With former communication laser chips going from 20-50 cents. The pricing and gross margins of these players go up with each architectural shift (60%+ for CPO lasers). And go up even more depending how far down the stack you go (selling ELSFP was ~2.5x revenue content) In terms of how I see the landscape now: - $COHR is probably the best risk adjusted laser player now, for people who don't like uncertainty. Their new $20B LTA is very substantial. - $LITE pretty negative now given the valuation overhang from $MRVL acquisition. Operationally very opsitive. - $AAOI has extreme demand visibility (likely $6-$9B in new LTAs from just 1 quarter), but credible execution uncertainty. They've also been focusing on pluggables + bottlenecked by DSPs, rather focusing on UHP CPO laser merchant markets. But I think if markets see a new $5B-$7B LTA that they're in late stage discussion for... and see the $4.4B MC. Pretty sure that's a catalyst for recovery. The demand doesn't disappear but timeline shifts back a few months. AOI also signaled DSP as the main bottleneck, last quarter it was TIAs, so other different component players that are interesting. - $SIVE has extreme capacity expansion (300m laser capacity targeted in total). The economic implications that they won't disclose are likely enormous relative to their MC, even if they sell $3 70mW lasers to China pluggable players. But there's a qualification uncertainty to fill the gap, that markets have punished the company for. Especially when management communication amplifies uncertainty, despite the ongoing shortage. Right now entire AI trade is going up and down together though.

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Lion Copper: Initiation Report

Lion Copper targets 2030 Nevada copper production at Yerington, with Rio Tinto’s Nuton funding its 2027 feasibility study under a 65%…

LCU $96M
Atrium Research - Equity Research 2 clicks

Quick Value #337 - Dana Inc (DAN)

Dana is combining with Eaton’s Mobility unit via a 1Q27 Reverse Morris Trust after selling a division, delevering and accelerating buybacks.

DAN $2.1B
Value Don't Lie 2 clicks

Seed Corn

Chiron’s failed $49 million Beaumont sale and $178 million Pinnacle acquisition leave XRN with $70 million of liquidity and medical-office…

XRN $372M
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STRL: 80 new electricians a week

Sterling’s $4.1 billion backlog faces Texas permitting risk after a governor proposed a moratorium, while Connexion, Capital Asset Planning…

STRL $7.6B
Trade Ideas Flow 1 click
PTRN · short

Pattern Group INC

Pattern Group is a fragile consumer business targeted on the short side.

PTRN $3.4B
Value Investors Club 3 clicks

WillScot Q2'26: The Streak Is Over

WillScot Mobile Mini returned to revenue growth in Q2 2026, raised full-year targets and invested $114 million in fleet capacity for data…

WSC $3.5B
Monte Independent Investment Research

Entravision Q2 Notes

Entravision’s ATS revenue rose 230% to $182.8 million in Q2, but shares fell from above $14 to about $8 after management forecast…

EVC $832M
The Value Road 13 clicks

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