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Tuesday, November 10, 2026

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Fajasy on X

On EV to year-end ARR, Boost Run $BRUN now trades below CoreWeave $CRWV, Nebius $NBIS, and $IREN. At $8.89/share, $BRUN’s EV is $989.7M. That’s 2.5x its $400M target for year-end ARR, down from 5.4x at the $22.93 price in my August 16 update. EV is market cap plus debt and lease liabilities, less unrestricted cash, using October 16 closes and June 30 balance sheets ($BRUN’s cash is pro forma for the warrant exercises). ARR is the midpoint of each company’s year-end 2026 target, which is $18.5-19.5B for CoreWeave, $7-9B for Nebius, $400M for $BRUN, and more than $4B for $IREN. At 2.5x, $BRUN trades below all three peers, including $IREN at 3.2x. A reasonable range for $BRUN is 2.5-5.0x, from where it trades today to just under the midpoint of CoreWeave’s 4.2x and Nebius’s 5.9x. I use the peers’ median rather than their average, since Nebius’s 5.9x skews the average higher. Nebius also owns more than 75% of its contracted power, while $BRUN owns no data centers (a different model, not a weakness).

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SpaceX’s $24 billion Starbase power plant, Microsoft’s Oracle capacity cuts, Riot’s $72 billion AI lease and Quanta’s sell-off frame…

RIOT $5.8B
Monte Independent Investment Research 1 click

Quick Value #337 - Dana Inc (DAN)

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DAN $2.1B
Value Don't Lie 2 clicks

Seed Corn

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XRN $372M
Orphan REITs 2 clicks

STRL: 80 new electricians a week

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STRL $7.6B
Trade Ideas Flow 1 click
AUTLF · long

Austal Limited

Austal is a naval and commercial shipbuilder operating in the U.S., Australia and Asia.

AUTLF $1.3B
Value Investors Club

Diamond Estates: Research Note

Diamond Estates converts $4.7 million of Lassonde debentures at a 69% premium, cutting debt to $10.9 million and raising Lassonde ownership…

LSDAF $1.2B
Atrium Research - Equity Research 3 clicks

Vicor Update, Part Four

Vicor’s Federal Circuit hearing put Foxconn’s disputed patent license under pressure, reinforcing its AI server royalty model and licensing…

VICR $6.8B
CV's Substack 3 clicks

Floor & Decor 3Q26: Business Update

Floor & Decor’s 3Q26 sales rose 3% while comparable sales fell 1.4%; it cut 2027 openings to 10-15 as high mortgage rates pressure…

FND $5B
Speedwell Memos 1 click

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