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Saturday, November 7, 2026

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Post Q3 EVC Update

EVC's Q3 update cites $30 million for a single station, a broadcast-business sale and stronger positioning for 2027.

EVC $832M
Nat Stewart - Stock Picking Newsletter 16 clicks

From X

@MaiusPartners 1 click

Maius on X

$PSIX Q3 results and recent power sector thoughts: The company delivered an exceptional Q3 clean “beat and raise” by any measure — even better than the record Q2 2025, when the stock peaked at over $100, with a much better story today. Yet the stock trades at a fraction of the valuation, Why? Long-term followers know we turned constructive on $PSIX only recently after an extensive amount of fundamental work and have not been afraid to be critical in the past. It was a meaningful position heading into the print. Given broader sector risks, we also held several related short positions as a factor hedge. However, after analysing $ANT S1 filings and election results, we think the narrative has shifted materially over the past week and when the facts change, it’s always important to reassess one’s central beliefs and have opted to close the majority of the long positions in $PSIX (retaining an OTM call option), while keeping all the shorts. The high level math: ~30 GW of behind-the-meter power capacity is scheduled to become available in 2027, scaling to >100 GW by 2030 if the dozen suppliers deliver on announced expansions (many won’t). Absent major changes in U.S. politics or AI model diffusion rates to support far higher collective monetisation rates across the entire industry, rapid buildout of new data centres on American soil can neither be justified economically, nor politically, a view held by the credit markets for some time, but only just beginning to be priced in by equity investors. The behind the meter power industry risks moving quickly into excess in such a scenario, with incremental suppliers at especially high risk. $PSIX has been one of the top-performing behind-the-meter power plays we track since our recent full note. Its unfortunate market conditions changed so quickly, substantially reducing the probability of developing into the multi-bagger we envisioned. Congrats to everyone who made money in this sector the past few months, it certainly hasn’t been easy (especially on the long side!) — and have a great weekend! DMs always open for those wanting to discuss further.
@Mr_Neutral_Man 1 click

Mr Neutral Man aka "Howard Marks of REITs” on X

Not denying nor confirming my VIC identity and I generally would refrain from doxxxing That write up had zero mention of tax analysis which is why funds can't own it. Buying $1mm of $ARI could result in $520k to $833k of cap gain in 2026 before you get any distribution. IMO, whoever ranted against that write up is doing all the members a tremendous service. I personally did a week worth of work on it and talked to some of the smartest folks about REIT liquidations and taxes. I finally found a solution that I feel comfortable with. I didn't buy it in the fund I manage due to the 2026 cap gains. But I found a bespoken solution that I think works for me
Mr Neutral Man aka "Howard Marks of REITs” ARI $310M
@AsifSuria 1 click

Asif Suria on X

Exactly! I've been long $LION for a while and violated my rule of never averaging down after @garyHeff made me see that this was one of those cases where an exception made a lot of sense. That was when LGF was trading at around $6. I should have held on to the $STRZ spinoff but I didn't see it the same way you did and that was a mistake. Hoping the deal for $LION is in the high teens or over $20 so Jon can get a wonderful payout based on his new incentive plan.

Investor Letters

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GREAT DEC-TECTIVE WORK

Diversified Energy reported $255.6 million of “true” nine-month free cash flow, while its $1.8 billion Birch acquisition would shift…

DEC $900M
The Oak Bloke 2 clicks

Verra veerer

Verra Mobility’s Avis termination threatens 2027 earnings, while Government Solutions profit rose 25% and implied fourth-quarter guidance…

VRRM $333M
The Oak Bloke 3 clicks

TSOH Weekly Roundup (10/30/2026)

Markel spent $315 million repurchasing shares in Q3 as Thrive agreed to buy ADT for $7.6 billion and Hasbro cited rising adult toy demand.

BBW $371M
TSOH Investment Research 1 click
BW · short

Babcock & Wilcox

Babcock & Wilcox is priced for AI power demand despite a one-time related-party project, with FY2028 EBITDA 35% below consensus implying…

BW $486M
Value Investors Club 2 clicks

Entravision Q2 Notes

Entravision’s ATS revenue rose 230% to $182.8 million in Q2, but shares fell from above $14 to about $8 after management forecast…

EVC $832M
The Value Road 13 clicks

40 Stock Pitches (3rd-9th August)

Navient trades near 40% of tangible book as Gator Financial Partners argues private student-loan growth and restructuring can reverse its…

NAVI $817M
Capital Employed 9 clicks

The Mispriced Assets Super Bowl

Groupon, Corsair and StepStone report within 15 minutes, setting up volatility between Groupon’s after-hours release and its Friday morning…

GRPN $704M
Mispriced Assets

DEC-laration of independence

Diversified Energy cut $233 million of debt in 1H26, repurchased $93 million of stock and sold $273 million of land and assets while…

DEC $900M
The Oak Bloke 7 clicks

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