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Thursday, November 5, 2026

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@david_katunaric

Mikro Kap David on X

I have no horse in the race, but I don't get why $MNRO bulls are so surprised by the market's reaction to a quarter as shitty as this one, especially after Monro brought in a “turnaround specialist” and closed a bunch of underperforming stores. By now, I don't think anyone disputes that the company is in play, with Icahn and Gabelli pushing for a sale. That said, I'd guess Mavis is still digesting the Pep Boys acquisition, and there aren't all that many buyers willing and able to pay up for a deal like this. With interest expenses set to rise further in 2027, net debt rising, and operating performance this poor, it seems potential buyers can afford to wait a lot longer than Monro can. And that's hardly the position you want to be negotiating from. Lastly, correct me if I'm wrong, but I don't buy the hard-asset downside protection argument either. Sure, they own some of their store real estate, but its value doesn't come close to covering what the market is valuing the company at today. I think there's a decent chance a transaction happens, which is why I'm following the situation. But until there's some sign of an operational turnaround, the bet seems pretty binary to me. So I wanted to see if there's something I'm overlooking, or if you're simply more willing than I am to take the risk of "no deal."
@StableBread

Fajasy on X

The first thing I said I’d watch on Quantum $QMCO in my August 16 update was $IBM’s tape drive supply, since CEO Hugues Meyrath said on the June-quarter call that “customers’ demand remains stronger than our ability to fulfill it.” The LTO Program, the group of $HPE, $IBM, and $QMCO that sets the LTO tape standard, reported on September 1, 2026 that tape capacity shipped in Q1 2026 rose 57% from Q1 2025. The 57% measures data capacity, and each new LTO generation holds more data per cartridge, so capacity shipped can grow faster than the number of cartridges sold. Meyrath said on the June-quarter call that $QMCO’s $82.0M ±$2M revenue guidance for the September quarter is only “mildly up” because tape drive supply had stayed “flat for the past handful of months.” $IBM, which supplies the drives, had told $QMCO it would increase production toward the back half of the year, but Meyrath said the increase still hadn’t shown up as of August. So by Meyrath’s account, $IBM’s drive supply, not demand, limits how much $QMCO can sell for now. $QMCO’s quarterly revenue has risen from $62.7M in the September 2025 quarter to $80.8M in the June quarter. Secondary storage, which $QMCO’s 10-K describes as “primarily tape storage systems,” drove the growth. It doubled from a year earlier to $37.0M in the June quarter, 46% of total revenue, up from 29%. That $18.5M increase was more than the $16.5M rise in total revenue, since primary storage, $QMCO’s file and object storage systems, fell to $8.5M from $12.5M.

Investor Letters

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Research Note

Nine Mile Metals is the subject of a research note.

VMSXF $14M
Atrium Research - Equity Research 4 clicks

Namib Minerals: Research Flash

Namib Minerals accelerates Redwing’s restart, targeting first gold this month and a ramp from 338 ounces monthly to 835 ounces by Q2 2027.

NAMM $46M
Atrium Research - Equity Research 6 clicks

Mammoth Energy: Fly Like An Eagle

Mammoth Energy's aviation unit derives 85% of revenue from engine and APU leases, earning 18% yields while Surf Air's going concern warning…

TUSK $151M
Naples Investor 2 clicks

Initiation Report

Nine Mile Metals is initiated under research coverage.

VMSXF $14M
Atrium Research - Equity Research 2 clicks

Verra veerer

Verra Mobility’s Avis termination threatens 2027 earnings, while Government Solutions profit rose 25% and implied fourth-quarter guidance…

VRRM $333M
The Oak Bloke 3 clicks
SILC · long

Silicom LTD

Silicom (SILC) is pitched as inexpensive on its existing hardware business, with upside framed as a cheap call option.

SILC $183M
Value Investors Club 4 clicks

TSOH Weekly Roundup (10/30/2026)

Markel spent $315 million repurchasing shares in Q3 as Thrive agreed to buy ADT for $7.6 billion and Hasbro cited rising adult toy demand.

BBW $371M
TSOH Investment Research 1 click

OSS Q3 FY12/26 Earnings Analysis

One Stop Systems grew Q3 continuing-operations revenue 36% to $12.6 million, raised FY2026 revenue guidance to $45 million, and used $11.8…

OSS $117M
Cestrian Capital Research 1 click

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