Bullpen.News From Edwin Dorsey
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Monday, November 2, 2026

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@BrokenMoats

Broken Moats on X

Anybody see this run in $WNC? crazy, gone from serious balance sheet risk to the fastest trade in the market. Company commented they might get to a replacement market next year (versus years of tough order books) and the commerce ruling on dumping from china that will put tariffs on Chinese suppliers (maybe 20% of the market?) should help those 27' numbers. But issues remain in what is a pretty poor business when the dominant industry player fluctuates on bankruptcy each cycle.
@BrokenMoats

Broken Moats on X

$SLP buyout today ends an ugly few years for the company. The core simulation software business, even in this ai world, still presents lots of value as key models are used by the FDA in drug approval process. But the management team after the founder stepped back destroyed the company with one destructive acquisition after another. Diluted the software with a heavy concentration on commoditized services revenue and less differentiated software assets, all purchased at high multiples to show "revenue growth". Mgmt destroyed the free cash flow, decimated the share price over the tenure but did allow management to rack up steadily increased compensation for themselves by growing the "size" of the company. A good case study in how poor management can take a wide moat business and turn it into a lousy one pretty fast. I imagine the new PE owners can extract out the bad business and excessive costs and generate a good return focusing on the original assets.

Investor Letters

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BMBL 2026-10-21

Bumble is being taken private

Bumble agreed to a $6.05-per-share cash sale to Ithaca Holdings, 136% above its October 2 share price.

BMBL $790M
Modern Value Investing 8 clicks
ONT · long

Onterris INC

Onterris, formerly Montrose Environmental Group, trades at 8.6x next-12-month EBITDA as an environmental consulting and response services…

ONT $553M
Value Investors Club 1 click

LXS.DE: a 2028 sale it can force

Lanxess can force Advent to buy at least half its Envalior stake in April 2028, potentially raising about €745 million to reduce net debt.

LPTH $431M
Trade Ideas Flow 21 clicks

Build-A-Bear: A Narrower Path

Build-A-Bear's push into prestuffed toys and broader retail distribution tests brand stretchability, but recent results warrant caution.

BBW $363M
TSOH Investment Research 18 clicks

TSOH Weekly Roundup (10/16/2026)

Bumble agreed to a $1.3 billion take-private deal, while Netflix cut about 1,000 jobs and Meta discussed its Muse superintelligence models.

BMBL $790M
TSOH Investment Research 12 clicks

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