Friday, October 30, 2026

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TSOH Weekly Roundup (10/30/2026)

Markel spent $315 million repurchasing shares in Q3 as Thrive agreed to buy ADT for $7.6 billion and Hasbro cited rising adult toy demand.

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TOYO Co., Ltd’s $TOYO strategy chief says full output at its Texas panel plant would bring in “about $140 million a year” of U.S. tax credits, 85.6% of its market cap, and $TOYO leaves them out of its forecasts. Regardless of how the four U.S. trade actions on its Ethiopian cells turn out, $TOYO’s answer is to make more in the U.S., which has plenty of panel capacity but few cell plants. The Solar Energy Industries Association’s October update counts 75.3 GW of operating U.S. module capacity, but $TOYO’s deck counts just 3.2 GW of operating U.S. cell capacity, citing SEIA’s September data, so most U.S. panel makers still rely on imported cells. Texas modules qualify for the Section 45X production credit, a U.S. tax credit earned on each unit of solar equipment made in the U.S. For modules, it’s $0.07/W at full value through 2029, then 75%, 50%, and 25% of full value in 2030-2032, and nothing after. $TOYO said on July 21 that its Texas subsidiary expects to be eligible to claim the credits for its 2025 tax year, which covers the plant’s first months of production. But Rhone Resch, $TOYO’s Chief Strategy Officer, said on the Q2 call that $TOYO will quantify the credits only after its tax, legal, and accounting work is done. For the panels themselves, $TOYO announced $185.6M of purchase orders under two master agreements with U.S. developers on June 10, and ~$240M of binding contracts signed “since mid-June” on September 28, with deliveries through H1 2027. The releases don’t say whether the two overlap, so to stay conservative, I only count the ~$240M. If priced like $TOYO’s H1 2026 module sales (~$0.25/W), ~$240M would be ~1 GW of panels, or ~6 months of the Texas plant’s 2 GW nameplate.

Namib Minerals: Research Flash

Namib Minerals’ How Mine mill reached 55,000 tonnes per month, 36% above prior capacity, while a proposed $30 million Ecobank facility…

Bimergen Energy: Research Flash

Bimergen Energy filed for a Texas retail-power license to supply data centers directly and gained eligibility for federal contracts through…

NRGV · long

Energy Vault Holdings INC

Energy Vault (NRGV) is pitched as a long at about $4 per share, with contracted owned-and-operated projects supporting a $10 to $15 target.

NLOP - I'm Buying Again

NLOP’s selloff after a weak KBR property sale has created a high-potential IRR entry point.

Programmatic DSPs

Entravision’s Smadex AdTech unit generated 104% revenue growth and 378% EBIT growth, becoming the main upside driver after Meta ended its…

Obscure Stocks Annual Review

Obscure Stocks reviews 2025 positions, including ELMSQ’s illiquid bankruptcy stock and DallasNews’ Hearst buyout, while setting stricter…

Return of the Power King

China Yuchai (CYD) seeks a 2026 rerating as governance normalization, global expansion, AI data-center power demand, and green-powertrain…

FrontView REIT Investment Update

FrontView REIT remains discounted to estimated NAV after a 25% gain, while 19 asset sales at 6.8% cap rates and 98% occupancy support…

The Priority Technology Situation

Priority Technology received an opportunistic buyout proposal, with its business better suited to remaining public absent a much higher…

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