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Friday, October 30, 2026

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TSOH Weekly Roundup (10/30/2026)

Markel spent $315 million repurchasing shares in Q3 as Thrive agreed to buy ADT for $7.6 billion and Hasbro cited rising adult toy demand.

BBW $327M
TSOH Investment Research 1 click

From X

@StableBread

Fajasy on X

Quantum $QMCO ran to $34.50 on October 2, 2026, and has fallen 41.3% since, to $20.25/share. No $QMCO insider has bought or sold shares in the open market since my August 16 update, including Dialectic, the activist fund managed by director John Fichthorn. Dialectic received 14.1M shares in June when it settled its convertible notes, 35.8% of the 39.4M shares outstanding, which makes it $QMCO’s largest shareholder. Its lockup, which also covered $QMCO’s officers and directors, ended on August 23, 30 days after the PIPE shares were registered for resale. So Dialectic could’ve sold into the run to $34.50, and it hasn’t reported a sale. On October 1, $QMCO granted options to buy shares at $31.885, that day’s close, to three executives: → Hugues Meyrath (CEO): 500,000 options. → James Clancy (COO): 400,000 options plus 150,000 RSUs. → Anthony Craythorne (Chief Revenue Officer): 200,000 options. The options vest monthly over four years and only pay off above $31.885, 57.5% above $20.25. CFO William White, fired eight days later, got no grant. So the largest holder hasn’t sold, and management’s new options only pay off above $31.885. But no insider bought during the drop either.
@StableBread

Fajasy on X

On October 2, 2026, Seagate $STX and Western Digital $WDC each fell 10.2%, while Quantum $QMCO rose 8.2% to its $34.50 peak. $QMCO’s drop started the week before it fired its CFO on October 9, along with a selloff in hard drive stocks. Toshiba, which makes hard drives like $STX and $WDC, said on October 2 that its Philippine plant is “aiming to nearly double its annual production capacity” of data center hard drives by its fiscal year starting April 2027. More hard drive supply could (1) hurt $QMCO by easing the disk shortage that helped push customers toward tape, as I covered in my April 22 tape primer, and (2) help $QMCO by easing the constraints on “certain disk drives” that CEO Hugues Meyrath mentioned on the June-quarter call. From October 2 to October 9, $QMCO fell 11.8%, vs. 4.3-8.0% for SanDisk $SNDK, $STX, and $WDC. Then, from the October 9 close, before the firing was disclosed, to October 27, $QMCO fell another 33.4%, vs. 4.1-17.5% for the three storage stocks. So the storage selloff explains part of the drop from $34.50, but most of it came after the firing, which is specific to $QMCO.

Investor Letters

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BMBL 2026-10-21

Bumble is being taken private

Bumble agreed to a $6.05-per-share cash sale to Ithaca Holdings, 136% above its October 2 share price.

BMBL $788M
Modern Value Investing 8 clicks

LXS.DE: a 2028 sale it can force

Lanxess can force Advent to buy at least half its Envalior stake in April 2028, potentially raising about €745 million to reduce net debt.

LPTH $578M
Trade Ideas Flow 21 clicks

Build-A-Bear: A Narrower Path

Build-A-Bear's push into prestuffed toys and broader retail distribution tests brand stretchability, but recent results warrant caution.

BBW $327M
TSOH Investment Research 18 clicks
BNTC · long

Benitec Biopharma INC

Benitec Biopharma's BB-301 gene therapy is in a Phase 1b/2a trial for an ultra-rare muscular dystrophy.

BNTC $307M
Value Investors Club

ContextLogic

ContextLogic’s US Salt holds about 23% of the US and Canadian pharmaceutical-grade salt market, one of only two suppliers, supporting…

LOGC $691M
Kairos Research

Jumia

Jumia’s January 2028 $7/$15 call spread risks $1.15 for up to $6.85 if cost cuts and marketplace growth deliver adjusted EBITDA and…

JMIA $690M
Triple S Special Situations Investing 13 clicks

Performance Review: H1 2026

REIT holdings outperformed in H1 2026, with Veris Residential sold in a $19-per-share take-private and FrontView REIT trimmed after a 78%…

FVR $446M
Real Assets, Real Value 1 click

Stock Trade Compilation Diez

E.W. Scripps, Team Internet, Monro, doValue and Inter & Co feature as special-situation trades involving mergers, asset sales, leverage and…

MNRO $380M
Triple S Special Situations Investing 9 clicks

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