Friday, October 30, 2026

TSOH Weekly Roundup (10/30/2026)

Markel spent $315 million repurchasing shares in Q3 as Thrive agreed to buy ADT for $7.6 billion and Hasbro cited rising adult toy demand.

BBW $327M

TSOH Investment Research Oct 30 1 click

Oct 29 BBW $327M

Build-A-Bear (BBW) Part II: The Scion Capital Analyst Tempate and the All Map

Cassandra Unchained 1 click

Oct 29 WGO $842M

This Week in Special Situations: Mattel, Winnebago, PayPal

Latticework by MOI Global 2 clicks

From X

@StableBread Oct 30

Fajasy on X

Id say the cash has to cover building v5 too, not just getting it to work. Hurst told the Portland Business Journal in August that RoboFab is making fewer than 100 a year and should reach triple digits in 2027. The S-4 also admits they don't have the capacity, staff or equipment for high volume yet. free $CCXI writeup: https://t.co/DsEJ2d9TkU

@StableBread Oct 30 1 click

Fajasy on X

@Teo_Sinamin And $ELMT isn't betting on Vietnam alone. It holds 23.7M shares of $EQR.AX, which runs Mt. Carbine in Australia and Barruecopardo in Spain, and takes 70% of the JV restarting the Springer APT plant in Nevada, 4,000 tonnes a year in phase one.

@StableBread Oct 30 1 click

Fajasy on X

That $465M is more than the $395.8M of gross equity Agility raised in its whole history through 2025. And it'll need it, the S-4 says all $300M of v5 orders are RaaS, so Agility carries every one of those robots on its own balance sheet. free $CCXI writeup: https://t.co/DsEJ2d9TkU

@StableBread Oct 30

Fajasy on X

Continue reading here for my updated valuation of $QMCO: https://t.co/GXzV3AQBgs

@StableBread Oct 30

Fajasy on X

Quantum $QMCO ran to $34.50 on October 2, 2026, and has fallen 41.3% since, to $20.25/share. No $QMCO insider has bought or sold shares in the open market since my August 16 update, including Dialectic, the activist fund managed by director John Fichthorn. Dialectic received 14.1M shares in June when it settled its convertible notes, 35.8% of the 39.4M shares outstanding, which makes it $QMCO’s largest shareholder. Its lockup, which also covered $QMCO’s officers and directors, ended on August 23, 30 days after the PIPE shares were registered for resale. So Dialectic could’ve sold into the run to $34.50, and it hasn’t reported a sale. On October 1, $QMCO granted options to buy shares at $31.885, that day’s close, to three executives: → Hugues Meyrath (CEO): 500,000 options. → James Clancy (COO): 400,000 options plus 150,000 RSUs. → Anthony Craythorne (Chief Revenue Officer): 200,000 options. The options vest monthly over four years and only pay off above $31.885, 57.5% above $20.25. CFO William White, fired eight days later, got no grant. So the largest holder hasn’t sold, and management’s new options only pay off above $31.885. But no insider bought during the drop either.

@DeepSailCapital Oct 30

Deep Sail Capital on X

$HTZ - Borrow still incredibly tight. Moving a bit this morning.

@StableBread Oct 30

Fajasy on X

On October 2, 2026, Seagate $STX and Western Digital $WDC each fell 10.2%, while Quantum $QMCO rose 8.2% to its $34.50 peak. $QMCO’s drop started the week before it fired its CFO on October 9, along with a selloff in hard drive stocks. Toshiba, which makes hard drives like $STX and $WDC, said on October 2 that its Philippine plant is “aiming to nearly double its annual production capacity” of data center hard drives by its fiscal year starting April 2027. More hard drive supply could (1) hurt $QMCO by easing the disk shortage that helped push customers toward tape, as I covered in my April 22 tape primer, and (2) help $QMCO by easing the constraints on “certain disk drives” that CEO Hugues Meyrath mentioned on the June-quarter call. From October 2 to October 9, $QMCO fell 11.8%, vs. 4.3-8.0% for SanDisk $SNDK, $STX, and $WDC. Then, from the October 9 close, before the firing was disclosed, to October 27, $QMCO fell another 33.4%, vs. 4.1-17.5% for the three storage stocks. So the storage selloff explains part of the drop from $34.50, but most of it came after the firing, which is specific to $QMCO.

@DOMOCAPITAL Oct 30

DOMO Capital Management, LLC on X

One of the reasons that Brazil started to take a lot of the ethanol export volume was a sharp appreciation in the Brazilian Real which leads Brazilian producers to favor ethanol vs sugar production. The sharp depreciation in the Real following the election will reverse this and lead to greater sugar production moving forward. Very bullish for $ALTO and $GPRE.

Daktronics (DAKT): Dominant Leader | Deep Dive

Daktronics, the leader in U.S. sports video boards, targets 10-12% EBIT margins after shifting production to China and Mexico and exiting…

DAKT $913M

Hidden Gems Investing Oct 28 6 clicks

How to Read a 10-K Like a Short Seller

A four-layer 10-K framework tests revenue timing, receivables, reserves and depreciation against cash flow, using Hertz’s 2012-14…

HTZ $709M

Jimmy's Journal Oct 26 69 clicks

Avalo Therapeutics: Contrarian 'Buy' Ahead Of Abdakibart's Phase 3

Avalo Therapeutics' Abdakibart enters a pivotal hidradenitis suppurativa trial after positive LOTUS data, with monthly dosing and…

AVTX $383M

Myriam Alvarez Oct 25 3 clicks

I went through all 142 companies in Value Line this morning. Here are the 6 that made it

Six Value Line small caps including Blackbaud, Marqeta, Ranger Energy and Definitive Healthcare trade on net cash, buybacks, low multiples…

RNGR $357M

Calvin Blissett Oct 24 81 clicks

Research & Analysis: ERock, Inc. (NYSE: EROC)

ERock’s modular microgrids bridge data-center power gaps years before grid interconnects, with Meta and Anthropic projects filling capacity…

EROC $444M

Monte Independent Investment Research Oct 23 10 clicks

BMBL 2026-10-21

Bumble is being taken private

Bumble agreed to a $6.05-per-share cash sale to Ithaca Holdings, 136% above its October 2 share price.

BMBL $788M

Modern Value Investing Oct 21 8 clicks

Sagimet Biosciences: The U.S. Acne Trial Is A Replication Exercise, Not A Discovery Bet

Sagimet Biosciences' denifanstat enters a fully funded U.S. acne registration trial after Phase 3 results, with SGMT trading below cash and…

SGMT $741M

Equity Eagle Oct 21 3 clicks

LXS.DE: a 2028 sale it can force

Lanxess can force Advent to buy at least half its Envalior stake in April 2028, potentially raising about €745 million to reduce net debt.

LPTH $578M

Trade Ideas Flow Oct 19 21 clicks

Sell Eagle Point Credit Now - Match The Loss With Portfolio Gains To Lower Income Taxes

Eagle Point Credit's NAV is down 25% YTD and shares nearly 50%, while its expense ratio climbed to 9.21% despite a 25% yield.

ECC $348M

Anthony Cataldo Oct 19 5 clicks

Build-A-Bear: A Narrower Path

Build-A-Bear's push into prestuffed toys and broader retail distribution tests brand stretchability, but recent results warrant caution.

BBW $327M

TSOH Investment Research Oct 19 18 clicks

TPLKF · long

PVA Tepla

PVA TePla (XTRA:TPE) is presented as a long position.

TPLKF $752M

Value Investors Club Jun 22 2 clicks

New REIT position: GO Residential (TSX: GO.U)

GO Residential, a TSX-listed Manhattan luxury-apartment REIT, raised about $400 million in Canada’s largest REIT IPO and trades at a wide…

GONYF $499M

Nugget Capital Partner's Substack Jan 31

Programmatic DSPs

Entravision’s Smadex AdTech unit generated 104% revenue growth and 378% EBIT growth, becoming the main upside driver after Meta ended its…

EVC $588M

The Mikro Kap Jan 25 1 click

Green Dot: Creating a Standalone BaaS Bank

Green Dot creates a standalone banking-as-a-service bank.

GDOT $703M

Clark Street Value Jan 13 2 clicks

Return of the Power King

China Yuchai (CYD) seeks a 2026 rerating as governance normalization, global expansion, AI data-center power demand, and green-powertrain…

CYD $878M

Maius Partners Jan 4 6 clicks

Hemnet – Broken Moat or Misunderstood Monopoly?

Hemnet’s Swedish listings monopoly has fallen from SEK420 to about SEK160 as growth slows, leaving investors to judge whether its 90% share…

HMNTY $651M

Bristlemoon Capital Dec 8

FrontView REIT Investment Update

FrontView REIT remains discounted to estimated NAV after a 25% gain, while 19 asset sales at 6.8% cap rates and 98% occupancy support…

FVR $446M

Real Assets, Real Value Nov 19

The Priority Technology Situation

Priority Technology received an opportunistic buyout proposal, with its business better suited to remaining public absent a much higher…

PRTH $647M

Nat Stewart - Stock Picking Newsletter Nov 11 5 clicks

(MGGA) Make Guns Great Again

Ruger trades at a $468 million enterprise value, about 7 times normalized free cash flow, with $101 million cash and no debt as gun demand…

RGR $723M

XIX Value Sep 11

Boston Omaha Corporation ($BOC)

Boston Omaha trades at $13.31 versus a $23-$30 intrinsic-value estimate, with billboard, broadband, hangar and surety businesses valued at…

BOC $382M

Calvin Blissett Sep 4

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Friday, October 30, 2026

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