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Thursday, October 29, 2026

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@david_katunaric

Mikro Kap David on X

I have no horse in the race, but I don't get why $MNRO bulls are so surprised by the market's reaction to a quarter as shitty as this one, especially after Monro brought in a “turnaround specialist” and closed a bunch of underperforming stores. By now, I don't think anyone disputes that the company is in play, with Icahn and Gabelli pushing for a sale. That said, I'd guess Mavis is still digesting the Pep Boys acquisition, and there aren't all that many buyers willing and able to pay up for a deal like this. With interest expenses set to rise further in 2027, net debt rising, and operating performance this poor, it seems potential buyers can afford to wait a lot longer than Monro can. And that's hardly the position you want to be negotiating from. Lastly, correct me if I'm wrong, but I don't buy the hard-asset downside protection argument either. Sure, they own some of their store real estate, but its value doesn't come close to covering what the market is valuing the company at today. I think there's a decent chance a transaction happens, which is why I'm following the situation. But until there's some sign of an operational turnaround, the bet seems pretty binary to me. So I wanted to see if there's something I'm overlooking, or if you're simply more willing than I am to take the risk of "no deal."
@StableBread

Fajasy on X

The first thing I said I’d watch on Quantum $QMCO in my August 16 update was $IBM’s tape drive supply, since CEO Hugues Meyrath said on the June-quarter call that “customers’ demand remains stronger than our ability to fulfill it.” The LTO Program, the group of $HPE, $IBM, and $QMCO that sets the LTO tape standard, reported on September 1, 2026 that tape capacity shipped in Q1 2026 rose 57% from Q1 2025. The 57% measures data capacity, and each new LTO generation holds more data per cartridge, so capacity shipped can grow faster than the number of cartridges sold. Meyrath said on the June-quarter call that $QMCO’s $82.0M ±$2M revenue guidance for the September quarter is only “mildly up” because tape drive supply had stayed “flat for the past handful of months.” $IBM, which supplies the drives, had told $QMCO it would increase production toward the back half of the year, but Meyrath said the increase still hadn’t shown up as of August. So by Meyrath’s account, $IBM’s drive supply, not demand, limits how much $QMCO can sell for now. $QMCO’s quarterly revenue has risen from $62.7M in the September 2025 quarter to $80.8M in the June quarter. Secondary storage, which $QMCO’s 10-K describes as “primarily tape storage systems,” drove the growth. It doubled from a year earlier to $37.0M in the June quarter, 46% of total revenue, up from 29%. That $18.5M increase was more than the $16.5M rise in total revenue, since primary storage, $QMCO’s file and object storage systems, fell to $8.5M from $12.5M.

Investor Letters

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BMBL 2026-10-21

Bumble is being taken private

Bumble agreed to a $6.05-per-share cash sale to Ithaca Holdings, 136% above its October 2 share price.

BMBL $788M
Modern Value Investing 8 clicks

LXS.DE: a 2028 sale it can force

Lanxess can force Advent to buy at least half its Envalior stake in April 2028, potentially raising about €745 million to reduce net debt.

LPTH $578M
Trade Ideas Flow 21 clicks

Build-A-Bear: A Narrower Path

Build-A-Bear's push into prestuffed toys and broader retail distribution tests brand stretchability, but recent results warrant caution.

BBW $327M
TSOH Investment Research 18 clicks
SFIX · long

Stitch Fix INC

Stitch Fix’s 2017 IPO rested on overly ambitious long-term growth expectations and an unrealistic definition of its addressable market.

SFIX $380M
Value Investors Club 1 click

[OTCM] Listings for the rest of us

OTC Markets gives smaller, distressed, and lightly disclosed companies a trading venue outside NYSE and Nasdaq, with lower listing barriers…

OTCM $626M
scuttleblurb 3 clicks

Stranded Indium-Phosphide

Aeva’s high-power InP SOA design could supply NPO/CPO optical modules at roughly 17% gross margins, versus 51% for eight discrete DFB…

AEVA $638M
Irrational Analysis

Groupon Built a Brain

Groupon is building an AI “Brain” to personalize its app for each user, turning its turnaround plan into a product initiative.

GRPN $639M
Mispriced Assets

Quick Value #322 - FuboTV (FUBO)

Fubo's Hulu Live merger leaves Disney with 70% ownership and resets its 2028 EBITDA target to $300 million; at $10, it trades at 4.2 times…

FUBO $853M
Value Don't Lie

What Amazon Can't Buy

Betterware de Mexico sells locally designed home organizers through direct sellers in informal neighborhoods, generating 67% gross margins;…

BWMX $675M
Phynvesting 1 click

Matan on Stitch Fix

Stitch Fix’s rushed Freestyle pivot cannibalized its profitable Fix business, driving active clients below 3.4 million, quarterly revenue…

SFIX $380M
MBI Deep Dives 2 clicks

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