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Wednesday, October 28, 2026

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@StableBread 4 clicks

Fajasy on X

At CAD$1.98/share (October 23 close), you’re paying US$214-265M for Levack, the flagship restart project of Magna Mining $MGMNF (TSX: $NICU), or 62-76% of the enterprise value. On the 336.57M diluted count, Magna’s market cap is US$476M, and here’s how it breaks down: → Cash, incl. option proceeds: US$130M (CAD$0.54/share) → McCreedy West, the producing mine: US$28-43M (CAD$0.11-0.18/share) → Crean Hill, the permitted nickel mine: US$54-90M (CAD$0.22-0.37/share) → Levack, R2 (a high-grade zone at Levack), and the rest (implied): US$214-265M (CAD$0.89-1.10/share) For McCreedy West, I valued 3-5 years of margin, discounted at 8%. For Crean Hill, I applied 0.3-0.5x the US$179M after-tax NPV in its October 20 pre-feasibility study. To estimate how much Levack has to produce each year to justify the CAD$1.98 share price, I assumed: → Margin: US$1.85/payable lb before taxes. I started with McCreedy West’s Q2 cash margin of US$1.41/lb, subtracted US$0.42/lb of H1 sustaining capital, and added back the US$0.86/lb the precious metals stream took in Q2. CEO Jason Jessup said most of the tons in Levack’s October 7 preliminary economic assessment (PEA) would come from the contact zones, which I assume sit outside the stream, since the PEA release doesn’t say how much ore the stream covers. → Timing: 7.3 years of output starting in mid-2028, per the PEA. → Taxes: 27% of the value, the share Levack’s PEA loses to taxes. → Discount rate: 8%. On these assumptions, US$214-265M requires 32-40M payable lbs/year from Levack before restart capital (the upfront spending to rebuild and reopen the mine). The PEA’s CAD$70.1M of initial capital adds ~7.5M lbs/year to the requirement, but pre-commercial cash flow and tax credits cut the net funding need to CAD$8.6M, or ~1M lbs/year. Jessup had said Levack could produce 2-3x McCreedy West’s output. The PEA plans 36.8M payable lbs/year from mid-2028 to 2035, ~2.2x McCreedy West’s 17M lbs guidance midpoint. So at Q2 margins, CAD$1.98 assumes close to the PEA’s output, which leaves out R2. But 2.1M of the PEA’s 5.75M short tons are inferred resources (from more widely spaced holes), so over a third of the plan rests on less certain tonnes. However, a 10% higher realized price adds US$0.60/lb to the margin and cuts the requirement to 24-30M lbs/year, well below the PEA’s 36.8M. Since Q2, copper is up 8.3% from Magna’s average ($6.54/lb vs. $6.04), while nickel is down 13.5% ($7.12 vs. $8.23). Nickel is 46.0% of the PEA’s revenue and copper 34.8%, so for Levack, nickel’s drop outweighs copper’s gain. In other words, higher copper prices alone won’t lower what Levack has to deliver. Nickel has to recover too.
@StableBread 1 click

Fajasy on X

On EV to year-end ARR, Boost Run $BRUN now trades below CoreWeave $CRWV, Nebius $NBIS, and $IREN. At $8.89/share, $BRUN’s EV is $989.7M. That’s 2.5x its $400M target for year-end ARR, down from 5.4x at the $22.93 price in my August 16 update. EV is market cap plus debt and lease liabilities, less unrestricted cash, using October 16 closes and June 30 balance sheets ($BRUN’s cash is pro forma for the warrant exercises). ARR is the midpoint of each company’s year-end 2026 target, which is $18.5-19.5B for CoreWeave, $7-9B for Nebius, $400M for $BRUN, and more than $4B for $IREN. At 2.5x, $BRUN trades below all three peers, including $IREN at 3.2x. A reasonable range for $BRUN is 2.5-5.0x, from where it trades today to just under the midpoint of CoreWeave’s 4.2x and Nebius’s 5.9x. I use the peers’ median rather than their average, since Nebius’s 5.9x skews the average higher. Nebius also owns more than 75% of its contracted power, while $BRUN owns no data centers (a different model, not a weakness).
@calvinblissett 2 clicks

Calvin Blissett on X

$RNGR: $14.71, ~$345M mkt cap, ~$395M EV after the STEP deal. Q2 adj EBITDA $28.6M, so ~3.5x run-rate EBITDA. Ranger runs well-service rigs, wireline and coiled tubing in the Permian and Bakken: the crews that keep old oil wells producing. Unsexy, but maintenance work holds up better than drilling. Capital allocation is the pitch. They've bought back ~4.6M shares since 2023 at ~$11 avg, pay a dividend, and just bought STEP's US coiled tubing assets for $27.5M, ~2.5x expected 2027 EBITDA. Chevron gave them 3 more hybrid ECHO rigs in July. Mgmt is targeting $100M+ of EBITDA against a ~$395M EV. Risk: H1 FCF was negative because customers paid slow (receivables went from $78M to $124M). When that cash comes home, FCF jumps.
@StableBread

Fajasy on X

Can Boost Run $BRUN borrow the $527-686M it needs for H2 2026 without selling stock? CFO Erik Guckel said on the Q2 call that $BRUN is working on new ways to finance the build: “We continue to innovate on financing structures beyond the equipment financing approach used to date and expect to provide additional color and progress on this over the next quarter.” The October 8 prospectus amendment names asset-backed securitizations (bonds backed by its GPUs and customer contracts) and rated parent-level debt as new forms of financing $BRUN expects to access. But I found no new facility, lender, or term sheet in its filings or press releases from August 14 to October 16. Founder and CEO Andrew Karos acknowledged on the Q2 call that there’s “a big gap in the market right now” in financing for customers without investment-grade credit. $BRUN’s named customers are private AI startups without investment-grade ratings, so its contracts are harder to borrow against. For comparison, $NBIS’s first secured loan on July 17, $775M at 2.50 points over SOFR (a short-term benchmark rate), was backed by GPUs running under a contract with an investment-grade customer. Thinking Machines Lab, the AI startup founded by former OpenAI CTO Mira Murati, alone accounts for $157.2M/year, 52.3% of what $BRUN’s disclosed contracts should bring in by year-end, and was still in talks to raise $5-6B as of early September. I found no announcement that it closed the round through October 16, so lenders financing its GPUs are also betting that the round closes. Karos also mentioned $NVDA’s AI Compute Partnership (AICP), a program NVIDIA launched in July to backstop GPU clouds’ clusters with its investment-grade credit, for a share of their revenue. However, NVIDIA paused some of its AICP deals over antitrust concerns, the Wall Street Journal reported on August 27. NVIDIA said the program is still in place, but The Information, a tech news site, reported on October 5 that NVIDIA is rethinking its revenue-sharing deals with GPU clouds. Still, lessors funded 79.5% of the H1 2026 build for GPUs already rented out on contracts worth ~1.4x their cost, so I believe $BRUN most likely borrows the $527-686M without selling stock. The Q3 report (mid-November) will show how much $BRUN leased in Q3. If lessors funded 70% of the H2 2026 build instead of 79.5%, $BRUN would need $199-259M of its own cash for the build, more than its $191.8M of pro forma cash. Covering the ~$7-67M gap and keeping three months of the ~$221M of 2027 payments in cash would take a $62-122M stock sale. At $8.89/share, the sale would mean 7.0-13.8M new shares, 8.4-16.4% of the 83.8M outstanding. So the stock at $8.89 depends less on demand or the book $BRUN has signed than on whether it can finance the next ~$1B of GPUs without selling shares at beaten-down prices.

Investor Letters

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BMBL 2026-10-21

Bumble is being taken private

Bumble agreed to a $6.05-per-share cash sale to Ithaca Holdings, 136% above its October 2 share price.

BMBL $788M
Modern Value Investing 8 clicks

LXS.DE: a 2028 sale it can force

Lanxess can force Advent to buy at least half its Envalior stake in April 2028, potentially raising about €745 million to reduce net debt.

LPTH $578M
Trade Ideas Flow 21 clicks

Build-A-Bear: A Narrower Path

Build-A-Bear's push into prestuffed toys and broader retail distribution tests brand stretchability, but recent results warrant caution.

BBW $327M
TSOH Investment Research 18 clicks

TSOH Weekly Roundup (10/16/2026)

Bumble agreed to a $1.3 billion take-private deal, while Netflix cut about 1,000 jobs and Meta discussed its Muse superintelligence models.

BMBL $788M
TSOH Investment Research 12 clicks
EVC · long

Entravision Communications

Entravision Communications, up fourfold year to date, is pitched as an undervalued growth business emerging from a troubled parent…

EVC $588M
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