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Tuesday, October 27, 2026

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How to Read a 10-K Like a Short Seller

A four-layer 10-K framework tests revenue timing, receivables, reserves and depreciation against cash flow, using Hertz’s 2012-14 accounting as a case study.

HTZ $709M
Jimmy's Journal 69 clicks

From X

@StableBread 1 click

Fajasy on X

A solar manufacturer that grew revenue 141.5% in 2025 now trades at 2.0x TTM earnings, after falling 77.5% from its June peak. U.S. customs (CBP) has been detaining its Ethiopian cells since May, and Commerce is deciding whether they should pay the duties on Chinese cells, with a first ruling due around December 14. That company is TOYO Co., Ltd $TOYO, now at $3.83/share. $TOYO’s closest comps are four other listed solar manufacturers selling into the U.S., and all four are down from their 2026 highs too, as of the October 26 close: → First Solar $FSLR: Down 47.2% to $168.15/share. → Canadian Solar $CSIQ: Down 65.2% to $8.85/share. → JinkoSolar $JKS: Down 72.7% to $8.17/share. → T1 Energy $TE: Down 82.4% to $2.12/share. Only $TE has fallen further from its 2026 high. Besides CBP’s detentions and the Ethiopia inquiry, four more overhangs landed after the June peak: 1) Discounted stock sale: $TOYO sold $50M of stock and warrants at $11.00 on June 24, a 14.9% discount to the prior close, and the stock fell 38.8% that day to $7.91. 2) New tariff: An August 6 proclamation set a 15% U.S. tariff on imported solar cells and panels, including $TOYO’s cells from Ethiopia, starting December 4. 3) Guidance dropped: $TOYO didn’t reaffirm its 2026 targets with its H1 results on August 19, when the stock fell 24.2%, and on September 28 only said it expects positive EBITDA for H2 2026. 4) Parent delisted: The Tokyo Stock Exchange delisted Abalance, the Japanese group that controls $TOYO, on September 26. Still, $TOYO is profitable and has net cash: → Earnings: $156.4M of TTM EBITDA and $80.5M of TTM net income. → Cash flow: $61.4M from operations in H1 2026, less $27.8M of capex, for $33.7M of FCF. → Balance sheet: Went from a going-concern warning to positive working capital in six months, with $26.4M of net cash as of June 30. → Texas: Doubled its Texas module capacity to 2 GW and signed ~$240M of binding module contracts since mid-June. → Tax credits: Management expects $140M/year of U.S. manufacturing tax credits at full Texas output, 85.6% of $TOYO’s market cap, and leaves those credits out of its forecasts. $TOYO’s EV of $137.2M is just 0.9x its TTM EBITDA. So is $TOYO a profitable non-Chinese cell maker on sale, or is the market right that Ethiopia’s U.S. sales won’t last?

Investor Letters

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BMBL 2026-10-21

Bumble is being taken private

Bumble agreed to a $6.05-per-share cash sale to Ithaca Holdings, 136% above its October 2 share price.

BMBL $788M
Modern Value Investing 8 clicks

LXS.DE: a 2028 sale it can force

Lanxess can force Advent to buy at least half its Envalior stake in April 2028, potentially raising about €745 million to reduce net debt.

LPTH $578M
Trade Ideas Flow 21 clicks

Build-A-Bear: A Narrower Path

Build-A-Bear's push into prestuffed toys and broader retail distribution tests brand stretchability, but recent results warrant caution.

BBW $327M
TSOH Investment Research 18 clicks

TSOH Weekly Roundup (10/16/2026)

Bumble agreed to a $1.3 billion take-private deal, while Netflix cut about 1,000 jobs and Meta discussed its Muse superintelligence models.

BMBL $788M
TSOH Investment Research 12 clicks
SRTA · long

Strata Critical Medical INC

Strata Critical Medical, SRTA, supplies organ-transport products tied to U.S. transplant growth.

SRTA $427M
Value Investors Club 3 clicks

Late August 2026 Random Ramblings

Higher rates could compress equity multiples and raise AI data center lease costs, while UWMC and Cogent raise questions about CEO-driven…

CCOI $397M
Yet Another Value Podcast 13 clicks

The Verra Sneerer (NASDAQ:VRRM)

Verra Mobility renewed Hertz tolling management for five years. AutoKinex lets rental customers buy tolling, fuel and protection products…

VRRM $505M
The Oak Bloke 6 clicks

Portillo’s: Strategic Reset

Portillo’s reset follows weak Texas unit economics, cutting next year’s openings to five from roughly 10 annually and shrinking store…

PTLO $338M
TSOH Investment Research

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