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Monday, October 26, 2026

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The Data Center Bridge

Small- and mid-cap data center stocks trade as one despite sharply different funding bridges: 12 of 15 cover fixed costs on signed contracts, but 10 cannot do so today.

FRMI $1.6B
CV's Substack 16 clicks

From X

@StableBread 1 click

Fajasy on X

Boost Run $BRUN said on October 26 that it has closed "more than $600 million in non-dilutive project financing" so far in 2026. In my October 19 update, I said the stock depends less on demand than on whether $BRUN can finance the next ~$1B of GPUs without selling shares at beaten-down prices. The release also says: → $BRUN has established "a fully funded runway to accelerate customer deployments through the fourth quarter of 2026," with additional financing "proceeding as planned." → $BRUN delivered the first phase of a multi-phase project to "a leading AI research and product company," which matches its $471.7M May 2026 contract with Thinking Machines Lab (Mira Murati's AI startup). → Several more projects are "nearing hand-off in the coming weeks." → Founder and CEO Andrew Karos: "Customer payments exceed our debt payments every month." The $600M+ is YTD, and lessors funded $268.3M of new GPU leases in H1 2026 alone. So if those leases count toward the $600M+, $BRUN has closed more than $331.7M since June 30, about half to almost two-thirds of the $527-686M of new leases I estimated its H2 2026 build needs. The release doesn't say what the financing costs or how much of it closed since June 30. However, the Q3 10-Q, expected in mid-November, should disclose how much $BRUN leased in Q3 and at what rate. If the 10-Q confirms the $600M+, I'd drop the $62.2M stock sale from my bear case, and the question shifts from whether $BRUN can fund its build to what the new debt costs.
@KEDM_COM

KEDM.com on X

Merion Road and Blue Hill are going activist at United Bancorporation of Alabama $UBAB, looking for board seats. They see UBAB at a key moment, needing better capital allocation, tighter expenses, and a clearer strategy. Still, the board hasn't acted on their proposals despite years of engagement. They're also looking for a $40m tender (~17% of the market cap). These guys hold just 2%, so UBAB basically replied, 'yeah, that's not going to happen,' but this ECIP winner could indeed do more.

Investor Letters

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Molina & Kinsale

Molina Healthcare and Kinsale Capital’s earnings are reassessed through a long-term lens, emphasizing conviction and detachment during…

KNSL $8.1B
Bearstone 8 clicks
NINE · long

Nine Energy Service

Nine Energy Service (NINE) is a domestic onshore oilfield-services consolidation play as U.S. rig counts show early signs of recovery.

NINE $107M
Value Investors Club 1 click

Short LUMN

Lumen Technologies faces a fading boost from its PCF-related sugar high.

LUMN $4.6B
Shallow Dives

Nomad Foods - The Yield Machine

Nomad Foods combines leading European frozen-food brands with a high dividend yield, buybacks and decade-low valuation, while private-label…

NOMD $1.7B
D Invests

Solitron Devices (SODI)

Solitron Devices' $27.5 million backlog rose 124% year over year as its sole-source military semiconductors support AMRAAM and HIMARS,…

SODI $82M
Underlying Value

TIC Solutions: Thesis Check

TIC Solutions' NV5 merger lifted consulting and geospatial growth and margins, while its 52%-of-revenue inspection unit stayed flat after…

TIC $2.2B
Kairos Research

NFE Bond Update

New Fortress Energy’s restructuring cancels its 12% 2029 notes for 94.3% of BrazilCo, $974 million of New NFE preferred and 25.8% of New…

NFE $57M
Triple S Special Situations Investing 2 clicks

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