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Monday, October 26, 2026

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The Data Center Bridge

Small- and mid-cap data center stocks trade as one despite sharply different funding bridges: 12 of 15 cover fixed costs on signed contracts, but 10 cannot do so today.

FRMI $1.6B
CV's Substack 16 clicks

From X

@calvinblissett 2 clicks

Calvin Blissett on X

Reposting because of the amount of work I put into this and how quality of an opportunity I think it is. A 300bps rate hike affects 9% of NI. I think Wall Street still thinks it’s same old keep every loan or wholesale interest rate sensitive $SLM. Not giving them credit at a LTM 5.8x multiple for the new expanding TAM and Capital light partnership model. Just like it took Wall Street ages to figure out $FNMA in the early 80s when Lynch was accumulating every share he could.
@convequity 8 clicks

Convequity on X

We see Nova ($NVMI) as a potential next-generation KLA ($KLAC), and we are backing it to take a larger share of semiconductor process-control spending. Its wins with leading chipmakers are strengthening that case. A leading global foundry has selected Nova’s materials-measurement tools for production of its next generation of transistors. Another chipmaker has adopted a different Nova platform for the same transition. These wins show Nova securing a place in the manufacturing processes behind more advanced chips. KLA’s broader process-control business has a strong emphasis on finding and analysing manufacturing defects. Nova is more concentrated on measuring chip dimensions, material composition and the chemistry used in production. KLA also competes in these areas, but they are more central to Nova’s business. These measurements help manufacturers understand whether each production step is delivering the intended result and where adjustments are needed. As logic chips and memory stacks become more complex, manufacturers need tighter control over the structures they build and the materials they use. Small variations can hurt performance or reduce the number of usable chips. We expect this to increase demand for Nova’s measurements and create more opportunities for its tools to become essential to production. In our view, the Western semiconductor supply chain badly needs new entrants. Equipment leaders $AMAT, $KLAC, $LRCX and Tokyo Electron, design-software vendors $SNPS, $CDNS and Siemens, and $TSM in manufacturing are too cautious and slow to match the pace of startups and highly driven Chinese challengers. Protecting existing products and the returns on past investments can make these incumbents reluctant to pursue technologies that threaten their established businesses.

Investor Letters

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Molina & Kinsale

Molina Healthcare and Kinsale Capital’s earnings are reassessed through a long-term lens, emphasizing conviction and detachment during…

KNSL $8.1B
Bearstone 7 clicks
WRBY · long

Warby Parker

Warby Parker's $25 valuation does not capture potential upside from smartglasses alongside its core omnichannel eyewear business.

WRBY $3.2B
Value Investors Club 3 clicks

MYR Group q3’26 Earnings Preview

MYR Group’s Q3 2026 preview cites data-center and power transmission demand, with long-term service agreements supporting margin growth and…

MYRG $4B
Monte Independent Investment Research 5 clicks

Mosaic, Part One: The Story

Mosaic’s history traces the 2004 Cargill-IMC merger and the phosphate and potash mines that shaped NYSE: MOS.

MOS $5.5B
Latticework by MOI Global 34 clicks

Mosaic, Part Two: The Deep Dive

Mosaic, NYSE: MOS, is the subject of a second audio program for professional investors analyzing fertilizer producers.

MOS $5.5B
Latticework by MOI Global 5 clicks

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