Monday, October 26, 2026

@stockgutter Oct 17 3 clicks

SG on X

@MeadowsPoppa @finviz_com definitely worth pulling up the "down 25% in a month" list and see what is getting hit: - a lot of biotech - data centers/HPC computing - entertainment ($SPHR / $MGM / $FUN ) - junior materials (lithium, uranium, rare earth, precious metals) https://t.co/X0XPLzILUX

@partners_road Oct 17 6 clicks

RiverRoadPartners on X

Excellent post. Explains why $ARE shares are down 44% over the past 12 months (and 79% over the past 5 years). https://t.co/kJbaNHubJh

@convequity Oct 17 8 clicks

Convequity on X

We see Nova ($NVMI) as a potential next-generation KLA ($KLAC), and we are backing it to take a larger share of semiconductor process-control spending. Its wins with leading chipmakers are strengthening that case. A leading global foundry has selected Nova’s materials-measurement tools for production of its next generation of transistors. Another chipmaker has adopted a different Nova platform for the same transition. These wins show Nova securing a place in the manufacturing processes behind more advanced chips. KLA’s broader process-control business has a strong emphasis on finding and analysing manufacturing defects. Nova is more concentrated on measuring chip dimensions, material composition and the chemistry used in production. KLA also competes in these areas, but they are more central to Nova’s business. These measurements help manufacturers understand whether each production step is delivering the intended result and where adjustments are needed. As logic chips and memory stacks become more complex, manufacturers need tighter control over the structures they build and the materials they use. Small variations can hurt performance or reduce the number of usable chips. We expect this to increase demand for Nova’s measurements and create more opportunities for its tools to become essential to production. In our view, the Western semiconductor supply chain badly needs new entrants. Equipment leaders $AMAT, $KLAC, $LRCX and Tokyo Electron, design-software vendors $SNPS, $CDNS and Siemens, and $TSM in manufacturing are too cautious and slow to match the pace of startups and highly driven Chinese challengers. Protecting existing products and the returns on past investments can make these incumbents reluctant to pursue technologies that threaten their established businesses.

@BarbarianCap Oct 16 2 clicks

Barbarian Capital on X

E.l.f. Beauty CFO Mandy Fields on consumers, pricing and building a foundation in cosmetics $ELF https://t.co/VYtj1rP3T7

@finphysnerd Oct 16 1 click

Myles on X

Continuing to add Biotech long short exposure aggressively here. Just longing anything smart people/funds are long and shorting anything with high short interest that's a bit squeezy as a basket, plus shorting some $XBI. Nearing 10% gross exposure.

@ACapitalLP Oct 16 1 click

A Capital on X

@edge_of_power Sounds like cope. Smart money says $CIFR is a 🍩

@SowingAlphaSeed Oct 16 1 click

Farmer on X

Bought some $ABVX calls instead.

@convequity Oct 16

Convequity on X

Our least-favoured bet on next-generation nuclear: light-water SMRs. Smaller does not automatically mean cheaper. A 50–300 MW small modular reactor produces far less power than a 1 GW plant, but containment, site infrastructure and other costs may not shrink proportionately. Factory production and simpler safety systems can help, but those savings must outweigh the loss of scale. The result could be a higher cost per installed kilowatt, not a lower one. Advanced alternatives offer higher temperatures and more industrial uses. But we think many face a bigger obstacle than licensing: securing enough fuel. To understand the investment trade-offs, separate two questions: what cools the reactor, and what fuels it? Light water → Proven technology, established fuel supply. Uses ordinary water and fuel typically enriched below 5% uranium-235. Runs at around 300°C under pressure, producing electricity and lower-temperature heat. Its advantage is maturity; its limitation is that it cannot directly supply the hottest industrial processes. Shrinking it does not necessarily improve its economics. Sodium → Higher temperatures without high pressure. Transfers heat efficiently and operates near atmospheric pressure, reducing the need for heavy pressure-containing equipment. The catch: sodium burns in air and reacts violently with water, requiring strict separation and additional safeguards. Helium → High-temperature heat without a chemically reactive coolant. Can reach roughly 750°C or more, supporting more efficient electricity generation and industrial heat. Helium does not burn or react chemically, but the system operates under pressure and must stay leak-tight. Leading designs also require specialised TRISO fuel. Fluoride salts → High-temperature heat at low pressure, without sodium’s fire risk. The challenges are corrosion, suitable materials and preventing the salt from freezing. Some designs, such as Kairos Power’s, use salt to cool solid TRISO fuel. Others dissolve the fuel in the salt itself. These are different designs with different fuel requirements. Then come two separate fuel bottlenecks: HALEU is about uranium enrichment. It contains more than 5% but less than 20% uranium-235. Many leading sodium-, helium- and fluoride-salt-cooled designs need it, although not every advanced reactor does. Western production remains limited. Centrus Energy ($LEU) has produced small quantities with demonstration equipment and targets new enrichment capacity in 2029. We do not expect sufficient supply for broad deployment before the late 2020s at the earliest. TRISO is about fuel manufacturing — not a type of coolant. Tiny uranium-bearing particles are wrapped in carbon and ceramic layers designed to retain radioactive fission products even at roughly 1,600°C. That is a major safety advantage, but manufacturing and quality control are demanding. US production already exists, but capacity needs to expand substantially. X-energy’s ( $XE) larger TX-1 facility is still under construction. Helium-cooled and some salt-cooled designs therefore face both bottlenecks: getting HALEU, then turning it into finished TRISO fuel. For investors, a reactor licence is not a fuel supply chain. And a smaller reactor is not automatically a better investment.