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Sunday, October 25, 2026

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@kevin__mak 4 clicks

Kevin Mak on X

I believe there's a high % chance $QURE gets its approval. Stuff like this from the FDA, in my eyes, further strengthens that belief. They want to generally make the review criteria more clear, more patient (advocacy) focused, and more flexible about what evidence is reasonably attainable. Not lenient for the sake of being reckless, but because there are situations that warrant different criteria. I think it would be quite incongruent to be vocally advocating for these new policies (which are suspiciously similar to the QURE debacle), while simultaneously crushing a high-profile drug approval like AMT-130. Incongruent doesn't mean it can't happen, just that it seems like the tail outcome. "The new framework is intended to enable patient input at earlier stages and at milestones throughout the development and review process. It also aims to provide greater clarity and consistency to drug developers on regulatory decision making. The agency said in a statement that it should take into account what evidence is reasonably attainable, given the nature of rare diseases." To be clear, FDA officials denied that the initiative was motivated by the earlier controversies. The connection to AMT-130, and the positive read-through, is my interpretation. "In an interview, senior officials at the agency denied that the initiative had anything to do with the earlier controversies" --- Disclosure: Creek Drive and its affiliated funds holds positions in QURE. Views expressed are current opinions for information only, subject to change and are not investment advice or a recommendation to buy or sell any security. Investing involves the risk of loss and past performance is not indicative of future performance. See the disclosures link in my bio for more important information.
@AsifSuria 1 click

Asif Suria on X

Now that the Bumble $BMBL deal is confirmed, the key question is: when will this deal close? Usually we get an indication of that in the press release announcing the deal but that was not the case here. There is also something called the "outside date" that is specified in the merger agreement filed with the SEC and this is the drop dead date by which both parties expect to close the deal. Like most things in life, there are exceptions and outside dates often have extensions. In the case of Bumble, the outside date is July 12, 2027. Ithaca has also indicated that they don't plan to close before November 26, 2026. So we land somewhere between November 26, 2026 and July 12, 2027. The average time it takes deals to close based on about 15 years of our internal data tracking M&A is 120 days. Biotech deals generally tend to close much faster and the average there is closer to 90 days. Considering there doesn't appear to be shareholder, financing or antitrust risk here, I would not be surprised if this one closed in less than 90 days. Personally I would prefer that it close in 2027, so I don't have to think about short-term gains this year. Another situation I was involved in last year (the narcolepsy drug company Avadel), ended up closing just days before it would have turned into a long-term position for me and we ended up paying short-term capital gains on it. This is one of the issues with all cash deals that force a tax event for long-term shareholders.
@DOMOCAPITAL 8 clicks

DOMO Capital Management, LLC on X

Fantastic article on $PESI here: https://t.co/7CoHjY2fcZ Extremely undervalued stock and market is putting way too much emphasis on whether or not Washington Ecology approves grouting at 200 East sooner vs later. It's going to happen and the West is already approved. $100+ stock moving forward. This is a $4.4 BILLION dollar project and $PESI has a market cap of just $276M. I expect them to be free cash flow positive by Q4 of this year and then (as you can see in article) the volumes really ramp-up whether grouting is approved or not (and it will be as soon as Ecology can approve without it bolstering Republicans in the mid-terms by giving Trump credit for accelerating a project no other administration cared to accelerate - a huge win for the people of Washington). PESI is the ONLY vendor listed on the official DOE. The facility is only one mile away plus it's a huge benefit to the local unions whose workers get to benefit from a local problem. Governor's of states with competitors have already said there's no way they'd allow the liquid nuclear waste to be transported through their state in order to be treated. There is no competitor for PESI. The market is completely sleeping on this. PESI has line of sight towards potentially $500M of annual, incremental revenue in the coming years with a revenue stream that will last DECADES yet trades at $277M. Not many opportunities like this come along and there is practically zero exposure to any sort of market or economic downturn. This is a court mandated clean-up project that will accelerate no matter what the economy does. Not a recommendation - do your own due diligence - but this is now a significant position for our clients.
@StableBread

Fajasy on X

I listened to the CEO of Nubeva Technologies $NBVAF (TSXV: $NBVA), a ransomware recovery company, explain why AI data labeling companies came to his team. Data labeling companies (firms that turn experts’ knowledge into training data for AI labs) have asked Nubeva whether it could help them label what each malware binary does, like whether it’s secretly encrypting files. Malware often arrives as a binary, a compiled program in machine code, and many are obfuscated, or scrambled to hide their purpose. CEO Randy Chou said in an October 5, 2026 interview on Nubeva’s YouTube channel that Nubeva has spent the last 7-8 years learning to spot homemade encryption, meaning encryption that ransomware authors write themselves instead of using a standard method. Homemade encryption is harder to catch, since it doesn’t match any of the standard methods security tools know. Here’s how Chou described what frontier models (the most advanced models from labs like OpenAI and Anthropic) can figure out today: “Frontier labs out there with their cybersecurity fully enabled, when they do full automation, they can approximately figure out 30% of the malware binaries. That’s the published numbers that are out today.” That claim is in line with GPT-5.6-sol’s 30.5% score on SRE-Bench, a Columbia University-led test of AI models on 262 binaries, but OpenAI’s GPT-6 Astra has since reached 56.9%. Chou said that for the other ~70%, a model might flag a binary as weird but can’t say what it does. He mentioned that some malware arrives compressed and obfuscated, then checks whether someone opened five apps, like a browser and Microsoft Office, in the past 72 hours, a known sandbox-evasion technique. If not, the malware assumes it’s inside a sandbox (an isolated computer analysts use to test suspicious programs) and does nothing. Today, Chou said, a small group of specialist cybersecurity labs takes malware apart by hand, and analyzing a new ransomware family typically takes weeks or months. He added that Nubeva has tested binaries written by its own engineers that frontier models couldn’t explain. That’s why Nubeva is now training its own model, which has no internet access, with “hundreds and thousands of AI agents.” The training only just started, but Chou said the timeline Nubeva is working to is “days and weeks,” not the 6-12 months he’d have quoted before AI agents. “I’m putting all my focus on this now,” he said.

Investor Letters

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MYR Group q3’26 Earnings Preview

MYR Group’s Q3 2026 preview cites data-center and power transmission demand, with long-term service agreements supporting margin growth and…

MYRG $4B
Monte Independent Investment Research 5 clicks

Mosaic, Part One: The Story

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MOS $5.5B
Latticework by MOI Global 34 clicks

Mosaic, Part Two: The Deep Dive

Mosaic, NYSE: MOS, is the subject of a second audio program for professional investors analyzing fertilizer producers.

MOS $5.5B
Latticework by MOI Global 5 clicks

Unicycive (UNCY):

Unicycive’s oxylanthanum carbonate NDA earned a March 25, 2027 PDUFA date after two manufacturing-related rejections, with no FDA clinical…

UNCY $104M
Triple S Special Situations Investing 4 clicks
JBFCY · long

Jollibee Foods CORP

Jollibee Foods trades at PHP 144, about 56% below its January 2019 high, framing a long thesis on the Philippine restaurant operator.

JBFCY $2.5B
Value Investors Club 1 click

Moon River Moly: Research Note

Moon River Moly’s updated Davidson PEA lifts after-tax NPV to $1.24 billion as flotation raises tungsten output 350% and cuts molybdenum…

MRIVF $16M
Atrium Research - Equity Research 4 clicks

GLOO, part two

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GLOO $269M
Guardian Research 4 clicks

Why I sold OB pick for 26 SVM

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SVM $2B
The Oak Bloke 27 clicks

Vicor Update, Part Three

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CV's Substack 28 clicks

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