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Sunday, October 25, 2026

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@DeepSailCapital

Deep Sail Capital on X

$PNG.V: Kraken is the subsystem prime for AUVs, batteries, sonar and navigation (via Covelya/Sonardyne) so it captures $3–5m of content per hull as Anduril and the navies scale up uncrewed fleets $THEON: Theon is NATO’s night-vision franchise, just got into counter drones. Cheap, and growing +20% $MOD — After the October 1 spin, Modine is a pure-play data center cooling company the market still prices like an auto-parts supplier, at roughly 10x FY28E EBITDA versus Vertiv near 40x, while large chillers and air handlers for Google and Amazon grow 60%+ $TOI.V — Topicus is Constellation’s European vertical-software arm, with 6% recurring organic growth. I think it re-rates once the new CEO puts its €180m+ half-yearly free cash flow back to work on acquisitions.
@StableBread 2 clicks

Fajasy on X

Only part of the $1.0-1.2B Boost Run $BRUN expects to spend on GPUs in 2026 is paid in cash up front. $BRUN plans to pay for the GPUs with (1) customer prepayments and operating revenue and (2) equipment leases that spread the cost over the lease term and generally end with an option to buy the GPUs outright. During H1 2026, lessors (the companies that buy the GPUs and lease them to $BRUN) funded $268.3M of new GPU equipment through finance leases. $BRUN made $39.4M of advance payments to secure those leases and paid $29.6M in cash for equipment it bought outright, so lessors funded 79.5% of its $337.3M of new GPU equipment. The $268.3M came from 34 separate GPU leases with 30- to 36-month terms, and the June 30 lease schedule implies an interest rate of ~7%. Its finance leases as of June 30 call for $103.5M of payments in 2027 and $99.8M in 2028, then just $12.1M in 2029, about when its three-year contracts end. So the lease debt runs off with contracted revenue, not with renewals $BRUN still has to win. Customer deposits, the payments customers make up front on their contracts, were $128.4M as of June 30. New deposits made up $112.9M of H1 2026’s $114.2M of operating cash flow, while $BRUN paid $99.9M on its finance leases over the same six months. Effectively, customers’ prepayments are already paying for the GPUs they rent. Founder and CEO Andrew Karos said on the Q2 call that every deal $BRUN closes comes with a prepayment, averaging 22% of total contract value (TCV). The June and July orders alone carry $93.6M due by their start dates ($37.9M on November 30 and $55.6M in installments through March 2027). Karos also said $BRUN’s TCV-to-capex ratio, its contract value divided by what the GPUs cost, keeps rising to 1.4 and above as contracts get longer. So a three-year contract brings in ~$1.40 for every $1.00 of GPUs, which also has to cover the lease interest, the rent, and the staff. In other words, a three-year contract mostly covers the GPUs and the cost of running them, so how much $BRUN makes on those GPUs depends on renting them out again after the leases end in 2029, without lease payments, at whatever older B300s fetch by then.

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MYR Group q3’26 Earnings Preview

MYR Group’s Q3 2026 preview cites data-center and power transmission demand, with long-term service agreements supporting margin growth and…

MYRG $4B
Monte Independent Investment Research 5 clicks

Mosaic, Part One: The Story

Mosaic’s history traces the 2004 Cargill-IMC merger and the phosphate and potash mines that shaped NYSE: MOS.

MOS $5.5B
Latticework by MOI Global 33 clicks

Mosaic, Part Two: The Deep Dive

Mosaic, NYSE: MOS, is the subject of a second audio program for professional investors analyzing fertilizer producers.

MOS $5.5B
Latticework by MOI Global 4 clicks

Unicycive (UNCY):

Unicycive’s oxylanthanum carbonate NDA earned a March 25, 2027 PDUFA date after two manufacturing-related rejections, with no FDA clinical…

UNCY $108M
Triple S Special Situations Investing 4 clicks
JBFCY · long

Jollibee Foods CORP

Jollibee Foods trades at PHP 144, about 56% below its January 2019 high, framing a long thesis on the Philippine restaurant operator.

JBFCY $2.5B
Value Investors Club 1 click

Moon River Moly: Research Note

Moon River Moly’s updated Davidson PEA lifts after-tax NPV to $1.24 billion as flotation raises tungsten output 350% and cuts molybdenum…

MRIVF $16M
Atrium Research - Equity Research 4 clicks

GLOO, part two

Gloo faces related-party deals, insider-heavy IPO ownership, acquisition losses and $84.5 million of CEO-backed puts as it burns cash and…

GLOO $291M
Guardian Research 4 clicks

Why I sold OB pick for 26 SVM

Silvercorp’s falling Ying grades, prolonged GC suspension, El Domo execution risk and Chaarat funding needs weaken its valuation despite…

SVM $2B
The Oak Bloke 27 clicks

Vicor Update, Part Three

Vicor’s $66.6 million in AI power-delivery royalties generated about $50 million of operating profit, eclipsing its module business as…

VICR $8.1B
CV's Substack 28 clicks

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