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Wednesday, October 21, 2026

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@convequity 3 clicks

Convequity on X

$CRWV 5-year CDS hit a record ~1,195bp on 15 Oct and the whole neocloud group sold off with it. Our ABBX tracker suggests the market is pricing contagion into the wrong names. The balance sheet first. At 30 June CoreWeave had $35.6B of debt against $5.5B of cash, and its ~$33B market cap now sits below its debt. $4.4B falls due in the rest of 2026 and $6.2B in 2027, mostly loan amortisation; no bond matures before 2030. Its 9.625% notes sold at par in June now yield ~14.9%. Add $16.3B of lease liabilities and $35.5B of leases not yet started. CoreWeave's Q2 operating cash flow: Net loss: −$0.63B + Depreciation & amortisation: +$1.39B + Stock-based comp: +$0.17B + Other non-cash items: +$0.28B − Working capital (payables, receivables, prepaids): −$1.32B + Customer prepayments: +$0.79B = Operating cash flow: $0.68B The core business makes cash, but working capital ate it. Without the prepayments OCF was −$0.11B. That OCF is already after ~$0.44B of cash interest, equal to 65% of it, and capex ran 9.5x OCF. Funding is where the group splits. CoreWeave builds with borrowed money: GPU-backed loans, 8.5–9.75% bonds and vendor credit, with ~$9.8B of H1 equipment supplier-financed outside the cash-flow statement. Prepayments covered 12% of its Q2 capex. $NBIS builds with convertibles (~$9B this year) and prepayments that covered 21% of Q2 capex; at 30 June it held $8.5B of debt against $8.0B of cash. $IREN builds with equity, a $3B 1% convertible and prepayments that covered 87% of its latest quarter's capex; net debt is ~$1.7B and cash interest equalled ~1% of OCF. The exposure that matters is its landlords. CoreWeave is ~77% of $CORZ revenue, the tenant at Galaxy's Helios campus and leases 400MW from $APLD. Yet since 2 Oct Core Scientific is down 17%, while Microsoft-anchored IREN is down 34% and Nebius 30%. Our view: the risk is CoreWeave's debt-funded build, not the neocloud model. If CoreWeave stumbles, the hit lands on the landlords that depend on its rent. Nebius and IREN share the model, not the funding.
@StableBread 1 click

Fajasy on X

Between July 10 and August 20, Boost Run’s $BRUN float more than tripled, a problem the larger GPU clouds didn’t have. When I wrote my June 3 update, its float was only ~17.5M shares (12.65M public shares plus 10% of insider and sponsor shares that were never locked up). In my May 17 post, I expected most insider and sponsor shares to stay locked up until mid-November, based on an S-4 (merger filing) sentence that read as if only 10% could be released early. But the July 2 S-1 (its resale registration filing) shows the lockup ended for all of those shares once the stock closed at or above $12.00 on 20 of 30 trading days after the closing, which by my count happened on June 8, 2026. The resale registration for 58.7M shares then went effective on July 10, and after $BRUN called its warrants on July 21, exercises added 11.45M new shares by August 20. That took $BRUN’s float from ~17.5M shares to all 54.3M Class A shares, ~3.1x as many, between July 10 and August 20, while the stock fell from $28.44 to $19.40. So I’d blame the drop from $39.20 on two causes that have nothing to do with $BRUN’s core operations: (1) higher rates and borrowing costs, and (2) $BRUN’s float growing ~3.1x, which was expected once its lockup ended and its warrants were called.

Investor Letters

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LXS.DE: a 2028 sale it can force

Lanxess can force Advent to buy at least half its Envalior stake in April 2028, potentially raising about €745 million to reduce net debt.

LPTH $525M
Trade Ideas Flow 21 clicks

Build-A-Bear: A Narrower Path

Build-A-Bear's push into prestuffed toys and broader retail distribution tests brand stretchability, but recent results warrant caution.

BBW $303M
TSOH Investment Research 18 clicks
FINV · long

Finvolution Group

FinVolution, a China and ASEAN unsecured consumer lender, trades at 4x earnings and 0.5x book value.

FINV $698M
Value Investors Club 5 clicks

TSOH Weekly Roundup (10/16/2026)

Bumble agreed to a $1.3 billion take-private deal, while Netflix cut about 1,000 jobs and Meta discussed its Muse superintelligence models.

BMBL $783M
TSOH Investment Research 12 clicks

PesoRama: Research Flash

PesoRama will reach 54 JOi Dollar Plus stores by November after raising C$28.4 million, funding more than 50 additional Mexican store…

TBBB $7.2B
Atrium Research - Equity Research 7 clicks

Modine Deep Dive

Modine, soon Modexus Solutions, has a $4 billion hyperscaler cooling contract but must ramp factory output and restore margins as data…

MOD $7.9B
CV's Substack 20 clicks

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