Bullpen.News From Edwin Dorsey
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Tuesday, October 20, 2026

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LXS.DE: a 2028 sale it can force

Lanxess can force Advent to buy at least half its Envalior stake in April 2028, potentially raising about €745 million to reduce net debt.

LPTH $525M
Trade Ideas Flow 19 clicks

From X

@KEDM_COM 1 click

KEDM.com on X

Four Tree Island Advisory is once again pushing against DoubleU Games’ $11.25 per ADS bid for DoubleDown Interactive $DDI, calling it far too low given DDI’s recent performance. DDI has since delivered two strong quarters, with cash per ADS rising to over $11.18. Using Playtika’s ~4.3x EBITDA multiple (despite Playtika’s weaker balance sheet, higher leverage, and declining EBITDA), this would imply roughly $26.40 per ADS (more than double today’s price), which Four Tree Island still frames as a conservative floor.
@StableBread 2 clicks

Fajasy on X

I went through every Boost Run $BRUN contract with disclosed terms to see how much of its $2.6B+ of total contract value (TCV) they cover. Cohere, the Canadian developer of AI models for businesses and governments, agreed on September 30, 2026, to pay $BRUN $525.6M over the agreement’s term for $NVDA’s GB300 NVL72 racks, each with 72 Blackwell Ultra GPUs. Part of the $525.6M is a prepayment $BRUN hasn’t disclosed. But if we follow the 22% average $BRUN says its prepayments run, the prepayment would be ~$116M. Each rack’s term runs 60 months, and the first racks should start in Q2 2027. Cohere can terminate and get back everything it prepaid if it hasn’t accepted a minimum number of racks by July 15, 2027. $BRUN has disclosed terms for seven contracts, and the two largest are with Cohere and Thinking Machines Lab, the AI startup founded by former OpenAI CTO Mira Murati: → Fluidstack (November 6, 2025): $63.6M over 24 months, or $31.8M/year. → 1,280 B300s, Charlotte (March 15, 2026): $116.1M over 36 months, or $38.7M/year. → 256 H200s, Raleigh (March 16, 2026): $3.7M over 12 months, or $3.7M/year. → Thinking Machines Lab (May 21, 2026): $471.7M over 36 months, or $157.2M/year. → June order, 240 GPU servers (June 8, 2026): $207.6M over 36 months, or $69.2M/year. → July order, 1,536 B300s (July 9, 2026): $222.5M over 48 months, or $55.6M/year. → Cohere (September 30, 2026): $525.6M over 60 months, or $105.1M/year. --- → Total: $1.61B, or $461.3M/year. Unnamed customers are labeled by what they rent, including $NVDA’s current B300 (Blackwell Ultra) and older H200 GPUs. $BRUN’s TCV is over $2.6B, so the other $989M+ is in deals without disclosed terms. The October 6 release calls the $2.6B “total revenue customers have committed to pay,” but the August 14 Q2 deck also counted renewal options and LOIs in TCV, and $BRUN hasn’t said whether the definition changed. So the conservative read counts only the seven contracts with disclosed terms, worth $1.61B, not the $2.6B headline.

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TSOH Weekly Roundup (10/16/2026)

Bumble agreed to a $1.3 billion take-private deal, while Netflix cut about 1,000 jobs and Meta discussed its Muse superintelligence models.

BMBL $783M
TSOH Investment Research 12 clicks
SFIX · long

Stitch Fix INC

Stitch Fix’s 2017 IPO rested on overly ambitious long-term growth expectations and an unrealistic definition of its addressable market.

SFIX $371M
Value Investors Club 1 click

Stranded Indium-Phosphide

Aeva’s high-power InP SOA design could supply NPO/CPO optical modules at roughly 17% gross margins, versus 51% for eight discrete DFB…

AEVA $699M
Irrational Analysis

Groupon Built a Brain

Groupon is building an AI “Brain” to personalize its app for each user, turning its turnaround plan into a product initiative.

GRPN $674M
Mispriced Assets

Quick Value #322 - FuboTV (FUBO)

Fubo's Hulu Live merger leaves Disney with 70% ownership and resets its 2028 EBITDA target to $300 million; at $10, it trades at 4.2 times…

FUBO $914M
Value Don't Lie

What Amazon Can't Buy

Betterware de Mexico sells locally designed home organizers through direct sellers in informal neighborhoods, generating 67% gross margins;…

BWMX $644M
Phynvesting 1 click

Matan on Stitch Fix

Stitch Fix’s rushed Freestyle pivot cannibalized its profitable Fix business, driving active clients below 3.4 million, quarterly revenue…

SFIX $371M
MBI Deep Dives 2 clicks

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