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Wednesday, October 14, 2026

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Archimedes Tech SPAC Partners II $ATII, the SPAC taking atomic-scale coatings maker Forge Nano public, amended the $100M lead commitment in its PIPE on October 13, three days before the October 16 merger vote. Alyeska, the Chicago hedge fund behind that $100M, will now take 7,031,175 of its 10M shares as pre-funded warrants, up from the 3M planned as of September 24. Those warrants cost $0.0001/share to exercise and never expire, but they don't vote until exercised, and Alyeska can cap its ownership at 4.9%, 9.9%, or 19.9% of the shares. ATII and its sponsor, with the consent of BTIG (the bank that ran ATII's IPO), also waived the transfer restrictions on the 3M founder shares the sponsor hands Alyeska for free at close. Counting the founder share transfer, Alyeska's effective cost is $7.69/share, and the S-4 (the merger filing) says so directly. So the $100M still lands at close, but the fund providing it got more flexible terms the day before ATII holders had to decide whether to redeem.
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Asif Suria on X

Now that the Bumble $BMBL deal is confirmed, the key question is: when will this deal close? Usually we get an indication of that in the press release announcing the deal but that was not the case here. There is also something called the "outside date" that is specified in the merger agreement filed with the SEC and this is the drop dead date by which both parties expect to close the deal. Like most things in life, there are exceptions and outside dates often have extensions. In the case of Bumble, the outside date is July 12, 2027. Ithaca has also indicated that they don't plan to close before November 26, 2026. So we land somewhere between November 26, 2026 and July 12, 2027. The average time it takes deals to close based on about 15 years of our internal data tracking M&A is 120 days. Biotech deals generally tend to close much faster and the average there is closer to 90 days. Considering there doesn't appear to be shareholder, financing or antitrust risk here, I would not be surprised if this one closed in less than 90 days. Personally I would prefer that it close in 2027, so I don't have to think about short-term gains this year. Another situation I was involved in last year (the narcolepsy drug company Avadel), ended up closing just days before it would have turned into a long-term position for me and we ended up paying short-term capital gains on it. This is one of the issues with all cash deals that force a tax event for long-term shareholders.

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Namib Minerals: Research Note

Namib Minerals posted H1 adjusted EBITDA of $19.0 million, up 76%, as higher gold prices offset lower production.

NAMM $55M
Atrium Research - Equity Research 3 clicks

What I’ve Been Up To

Cogent Communications and AI data-center bottlenecks feature in a newsletter update on recruiting, financial media and conference takeaways.

CCOI $428M
Stock Thoughts 3 clicks

JBG Smith

JBG Smith trades at an estimated 40% discount to NAV, backed by National Landing multifamily assets, Amazon HQ demand and $1.3 billion of…

JBGS $813M
Raging Bull Investments

IOFNF- Iofina (buy)

Iofina’s IO10 iodine plant is due in Q3 2024, adding 100 to 150 metric tons of capacity while higher brine costs pressure earnings.

IOFNF $107M
Sylence Capital

A Mexican Blue Chip Bargain

Grupo Herdez, a MXN 15.2 billion Mexican food company, pairs dominant grocery brands with McCormick, Barilla and Hormel joint ventures.

GUZOF $954M
Exploring with Alluvial Capital

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