Wednesday, October 14, 2026

October 2026 Random Ramblings

October 2026 market commentary covers SOLS’s cancelled merger, a hypothetical Starbucks-Chipotle deal, Russell 2000 weakness and AI premiums for Oura and home builders.

SOLS $9.7B

Yet Another Value Podcast Oct 14 84 clicks

Oct 13 CARG $2.6B

CarGurus ($CARG): The Auto Trader of America, Priced Like a Used Car

Substack von Philipp 9 clicks

Oct 12 LYFT $6.5B

The Final Phase of This Bull Market Will Be Massive | Charles Lemonides

The Monetary Matters Network 7 clicks

From X

@LaughingH20Cap 43h ago 5 clicks

Laughing Water Capital on X

@bufetmastermind @secretlyaninja @mbamcnulty maybe i don't. I'd appreciate if you could explain. they had said 50% FCF margin on $1B in sales. $LQDA is still going to get to $1B in sales. Its just going to take longer. Tell me why 50% FCF margins are not in play. Bonus points if you can tell why they won't reduce costs

@BrokenMoats 47h ago 3 clicks

Broken Moats on X

Hottest trade in the past month.....retail stocks Seems odd with rates and oil and diesel moves over the same time frame. And these are not bounces from being oversold these are double digit moves in most cases to new highs while dpz struggled on their print this week, stocks like DKS collapsed around the time this trade started. Bifurcation in retail in recent weeks that seems to be favoring low quality. Something to watch for a reversal soon $KSS $FIGS $URBN $SHOP

@ACapitalLP 47h ago 3 clicks

A Capital on X

$KYIV https://t.co/bGd6IJ4Xl0

@DeepSailCapital Oct 14 1 click

Deep Sail Capital on X

$DJT Downside still 100% from here https://t.co/6YIEeHfC3e

@BrokenMoats Oct 14 3 clicks

Broken Moats on X

Quickly back to very attractive levels to put back on short exposure on the software sector after the manic move in Q3 and digestion in September before the sudden crash up in the past 10 days..... AI wins software is in trouble - faster disruption more competition, pricing pressure AI trade is over, software is going to catch down as the market will tank and this won't sit that out (the are not cheap) Disruption and pricing is the tailwind, now valuation is too. Rates don't hurt either as up until recently these were considered long duration assets Recent results were status quo for most (no real acceleration) and pitch AI cohort growth as growing xx% but its not uplifting the total growth they are just changing what they charge for to show the street what it wants to hear) -- that phase is over, valuations are in many cases at year and multi year highs. SBC still a problem. Now comes renewals in the back of this year and thats where the issues will start to emerge on retention and pricing. An thats day 1 they will snowball overtime for the vast majority of these companies. Plenty of names to choose from: $PAYC $DOCU $TEAM $DDOG $PCTY $GDDY $RNG

@LaughingH20Cap Oct 14 3 clicks

Laughing Water Capital on X

@secretlyaninja @mbamcnulty mkt used to look 18 mos fwd & annualizing Q4 of a growing co would = a conservative look at where the stock should trade. Now unless it is beat & raise next Q nobody cares. Until they do. Whether $3.80 or $4.50 or '27 or '28 any reasonable mult gets a lot of upside for $LQDA

@TimyanBankAlert Oct 14 1 click

Timyan Bank Alert on X

Thank you again for these great $WAL Pr calls, Bill https://t.co/pZo95YXpKI https://t.co/YbY03WulEx

@calvinblissett Oct 14 1 click

Calvin Blissett on X

@ThothCapital @valuedontlie I would love to/can’t wait to read your $calm report

Bristlemoon September 2026 Quarterly Letter

Bristlemoon Global Fund lost 8.4% in the September quarter and added shorts in Campbell’s, REA Group, MasterBrand and Polaris amid narrow…

CPB $6B

Bristlemoon Capital Oct 12 8 clicks

LQDA: finer powder, higher doses

Liquidia’s Yutrepia sales reached $170.4 million in Q2 2026, while a patent ruling threatens its PH-ILD label but leaves PAH sales and a…

LQDA $2.4B

Trade Ideas Flow Oct 12 4 clicks

Jumping On The Robotics Train: Initiating Buy On Cognex

Cognex expects 15% revenue growth this year as its RealSense acquisition expands machine-vision exposure to robotic perception, logistics,…

CGNX $9.6B

Fountainhead Oct 12 2 clicks

Global-e: The Invisible Engine Behind the Brands You Buy From Directly Online! $GLBE

Global-e provides cross-border merchant-of-record, payments, tax and fulfillment services to more than 1,500 brands, including Shopify…

GLBE $6.4B

Substack von Philipp Oct 12 6 clicks

Penguin Solutions: Explosive AI Growth At A Surprisingly Low Valuation

Penguin Solutions grew FY2026 revenue 26% as AI data-center and memory demand expanded, while negative free cash flow and cyclical memory…

PENG $3.5B

Investor Overview Oct 12 5 clicks

Fannie Mae, Freddie Mac, Hong Kong stocks Value Stocks late in a Bull Market, and Consolidating a Big Short

Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac common shareholders face at least 90% dilution if Treasury converts its growing senior preferred stakes into…

FNMA $4.2B

Cassandra Unchained Oct 11 5 clicks

Deep Dive: Inter & Co

Inter & Co, Brazil’s second-largest neobank, grew over 20% with controlled delinquencies and 15% book-value compounding while trading at…

INTR $3B

Capitalist Letters Oct 11 7 clicks

Glaukos: Steep Premium For New Therapies And Growth

Glaukos is expanding from glaucoma devices into sustained drug delivery and corneal cross-linking, but GKOS's premium valuation leaves…

GKOS $9.8B

Myriam Alvarez Oct 11 4 clicks

You Understand Now, Why You Came This Way

Brazil’s October 25 runoff puts Bolsonaro’s likely victory at the center of a bullish regional-stock case; Golar LNG (GLNG) also reports…

GLNG $4.7B

WHAT ARE WE DOING? “Contrarians At The Gate” Oct 9 3 clicks

Research & Analysis: Legence Corp. (NASDAQ: LGN)

Legence trades at 10.4x EV/aEBITDA with a $5.7 billion backlog, as AI data center installations drive growth and expand its maintenance…

LGN $5B

Monte Independent Investment Research Oct 9 3 clicks

NCNO · long

Ncino INC

NCino is a commercial-lending system of record for banks and credit unions, trading at roughly 3x enterprise value to sales.

NCNO $2.1B

Value Investors Club Jun 1 3 clicks

AAON

AAON shares have fallen 45% from November 2024 highs as core HVAC bookings weaken, while BASX supplies hyperscale data-center growth.

AAON $7B

Kairos Research Jul 16

Quiet Compounders, a Hidden Moat and an 18% FCF Yield at Pitney Bowes (PBI)

Pitney Bowes trades at an 18% FCF yield, with 25% operating margins, 30%-plus ROIC and plans to return free cash flow mostly through…

PBI $2.3B

Base Hit Investing Jul 11

BSR REIT (TSX:HOM.U)

BSR REIT’s $618.5 million sale to AvalonBay valued Texas apartments near a 5% cap rate and removed consent rights that had constrained…

RETDF $4.1B

Real Assets, Real Value Jul 8

Alta Fox NATL Presentation

Alta Fox values NCR Atleos at $100 a share, citing ATM-as-a-Service growth, deleveraging and buybacks.

NATL $3.4B

Research - Alta Fox Capital Jul 1

Pt III: A High Quality Tech Provider with an Emerging Event-Angle

IMAX China, Hong Kong-listed 1970, is IMAX’s exclusive Greater China licensee, earning box-office-linked fees from premium large-format…

IMAX $2.8B

Raging Bull Investments Jun 29

Envista (NVST)

Envista, Danaher’s dental spin-off, is pitched as a de-risked long-term opportunity after U.S.

NVST $3.6B

Healthy Stock Picks May 22

When extend and pretend is a virtue

Upstart says longer repayment terms lifted Q1 debt-settlement acceptances 50%, but does not disclose delinquency changes or the number of…

UPST $2.2B

John Hempton's Newsletter May 6 2 clicks

FrontView REIT (NYSE: FVR)

FrontView REIT’s 35% selloff after tenant credit problems and a lock-up expiry leaves its net-lease portfolio at a 9.5% cap rate and 10.5x…

FCPT $2.7B

Real Assets, Real Value Apr 7

ILMN: Activism! Part Deux

Illumina appointed activist Keith Meister to its board as an SEC investigation into the Grail acquisition raises questions over 122.5…

GRAL $6B

Nongaap Investing Apr 2

Wednesday, October 14, 2026

Laughing Water Capital on X

Broken Moats on X

A Capital on X

Deep Sail Capital on X

Broken Moats on X

Laughing Water Capital on X

Timyan Bank Alert on X

Calvin Blissett on X

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