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Tuesday, October 13, 2026

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Convequity on X

Software multiples have fallen further since our January report. As of 7 Oct 2026, 238 companies in our all-software watchlist have EV/Sales (NTM) data on Koyfin. The median is 3.1x, down from 3.7x in January. The average is 5.4x, down from 6.2x. The 25th percentile is 1.8x, down from 1.9x. The 75th percentile is 5.5x, down from 6.1x. 191 of the 238 (80%) trade below our 6.7x private equity floor. 113 trade below 3x. The Bessemer Cloud Index shows the same pattern. Its median is 4.7x, down from 5.1x in January. 46 of its 68 companies (68%) trade below 6.7x. The cheapest are $CXM at 0.9x, $SPT at 1.1x, $MNDY at 1.7x and $WIX at 1.8x. In our watchlist, only 21 companies trade above 10x. The most expensive are $PLTR at 44.5x, $CRWD at 42.4x, $NET at 38.6x, $PANW at 24.2x, $DDOG at 19.5x and $SNOW at 16.3x. Growth still earns a higher multiple. The 44 names expected to grow revenue 20%+ a year over 3 years have a median of 5.2x. The 85 names expected to grow under 10% have a median of 2.6x. Even for the faster growers, the 5.2x median is below the floor. The market is paying up for very few names. We think that is right. Many software companies have slowing growth, high costs and no clear AI strategy. We would not buy the sector, or a cloud index, on valuation alone. In software, we focus on the few companies rebuilding their products around AI, and our SaaS Survival Scorecard tests key SaaS names against the pressure from AI agents.
@StableBread

Fajasy on X

How did a boiler maker founded in 1867 become the Navy’s reactor supplier? BWX Technologies’ $BWXT history runs through two spin-offs and a decade of acquisitions: → 1867: George Babcock and Stephen Wilcox found Babcock & Wilcox (B&W) to make steam boilers. → 1953-1955: B&W builds components for the USS Nautilus, the first nuclear-powered submarine. → 1978: J. Ray McDermott, an offshore engineering firm, buys B&W. → 2008: B&W buys Nuclear Fuel Services, the Erwin, Tennessee plant behind the Navy’s fuel. → 2010: B&W spins off from McDermott as a standalone public company. → 2015: B&W spins off its boiler business as Babcock & Wilcox Enterprises $BW and renames itself BWX Technologies, keeping the naval and other nuclear businesses. → 2016-2020: Buys GE Hitachi Nuclear Energy Canada (fuel for CANDU, Canada’s heavy-water reactor design, 2016), Nordion’s medical isotope business (2018), and nuclear parts maker Laker Energy (2020), building out the Canadian commercial business. → 2022: Wins Project Pele, the Pentagon’s prototype transportable microreactor. → 2025: Buys the Aerojet Ordnance Tennessee (A.O.T.) unit of L3Harris $LHX for ~$100M in January and closes the Kinectrics deal (a Toronto-based nuclear engineering and testing firm, ~US$525M including assumed liabilities) in May. → 2026: Closes its purchase of Precision Components Group (PCG), a U.S. maker of heat exchangers and other heavy components, for ~$200M on July 1. Most recently, on August 3, Nordic Capital, a private equity firm, agreed to buy just over 80% of $BWXT’s medical isotope business for $750M plus up to $50M more. $BWXT wasn’t looking to sell until Nordic reached out, CEO Rex Geveden said on the Q2 call the same day. CFO Mike Fitzgerald said on the same call that the medical business should bring in $130M of 2026 revenue, at a margin “modestly accretive” to the 13% $BWXT expects from its commercial segment. Nordic’s $750M for just over 80% implies ~$0.9B for 100%, or ~7x revenue. At a ~14% margin, that’s ~50x EBITDA, more than double the 22.5x EBITDA $BWXT trades at. So $BWXT is selling a small side business at a premium to focus on what it calls its core businesses, nuclear national security and nuclear power.

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Namib Minerals: Research Note

Namib Minerals posted H1 adjusted EBITDA of $19.0 million, up 76%, as higher gold prices offset lower production.

NAMM $55M
Atrium Research - Equity Research 1 click

What I’ve Been Up To

Cogent Communications and AI data-center bottlenecks feature in a newsletter update on recruiting, financial media and conference takeaways.

CCOI $430M
Stock Thoughts 3 clicks
BW · short

Babcock & Wilcox

Babcock & Wilcox is priced for AI power demand despite a one-time related-party project, with FY2028 EBITDA 35% below consensus implying…

BW $748M
Value Investors Club 2 clicks

Solid Power Still Has Promise

Solid Power reported a $0.11 Q2 loss and $419.3 million of cash, with its electrolyte pilot line and BMW and SK On validation central to…

SLDP $518M
Quad 7 Capital 2 clicks

Not So Fast

Entravision, the portfolio’s largest position, fell more than 40% from its highs as Q3 returns dropped to 37.8% YTD.

EVC $598M
The Mikro Kap 3 clicks

Zentek Research Note

Zentek shipped its first ZenGUARD air-filter order to a Canadian federal facility as its Albany graphite PEA confirmed a US$3.85 billion…

ZTEKF $58M
Atrium Research - Equity Research 1 click

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