Thursday, October 8, 2026

Boyz in the Hood

Robinhood’s AI agents, 24/7 equity trading and 10:1 crypto perpetual futures encourage higher retail trading velocity, leverage and momentum.

HOOD $98B

WHAT ARE WE DOING? “Contrarians At The Gate” Oct 8

Oct 8 CCJ $39B

The Uranium Cycle Is Turning Up: In Conversation with YCA & Cameco

Aurelion Research 1 click

Oct 8 STZ $20B

This Week in Special Situations: Constellation Brands, GEO Group, Under Armour, CITIC Resources

Latticework by MOI Global 2 clicks

From X

@leevalueroach Oct 5 1 click

Lee Roach on X

Prison stocks about to limit up $GEO. https://t.co/GZmGa3E8jh

@John_Hempton Oct 5 4 clicks

John_Hempton on X

@FedexSTi $NU back to the price it was three weeks ago.

@StableBread Oct 5

Fajasy on X

Seems I quite underestimated mgmt's turnaround abilities at $QMCO back in late April, despite my deep dive. +370% since! 🤔 https://t.co/TaFgHG1Jke

@John_Hempton Oct 4 2 clicks

John_Hempton on X

@DavidWeinetayg @TidefallCapital Debt covenants matter. It won't however be the first or last company to buy itself back into ch11. I mean look at last quarter's buy backs in $FICO.

@leevalueroach Oct 4 3 clicks

Lee Roach on X

Looks like we got 13.5 million shares trading of $GME tonight. Not sure what’s going on. Besides the heavy insider buys. https://t.co/cU9aBeRwRR

@StableBread Oct 4

Fajasy on X

Elmet $ELMT expects Masan High-Tech Materials, its Vietnamese tungsten supplier, to stay its key refiner even after a U.S.-funded plant in Nevada comes online, and it bought 4.99% of the company for $124.75M on October 1. Masan High-Tech Materials (UPCoM: MSR) mines tungsten at Nui Phao in Vietnam, refines the concentrate into APT (ammonium paratungstate, the traded form of tungsten) and oxides, and calls itself the largest producer of processed tungsten outside China. Elmet, which turns tungsten into parts for U.S. missiles and jets, has bought from MSR for 12+ years, and the deal values MSR at $2.5B. The 55.1M shares came from a Masan Group (HOSE: MSN) subsidiary, so the $124.75M goes to MSR's parent, not into MSR. Along with the stake come (1) an MSR board seat, (2) an 18-month lockup on Elmet's MSR shares, and (3) 8+ years of supply that MSR puts at ~1,250 tonnes of WO₃ (tungsten trioxide, the standard measure of contained tungsten) a year, ~$1.5B of revenue to MSR at today's prices. That's ~$187.5M a year of spend with MSR ($1.5B / 8), equal to 82% of Elmet's $228.5M of TTM revenue. On September 14, Elmet's deck labeled ~$100M of the U.S. Department of War's (DoW) $450M "Strategic Investments in Elmet Refining & Trading," its new tungsten buying and trading division, to build a "diversified feedstock portfolio." The October 1 deck relabels the same ~$100M "Strategic Investment in Masan," and the stake cost $124.75M. At $2.5B, Elmet paid 10.7x the ~$233M of net profit MSR expects for 2026 ($2.5B / $233M). For context, APT was $3,040/MTU (metric ton unit, 10 kg of WO₃) on May 29, up from $330 in January 2025 per Elmet's deck, and Elmet's own 2031 targets assume $1,500/MTU. Elmet's 8-K also says it won't participate in MSR's 2026 interim dividends. On October 1, the day the shares traded, MSR's board proposed a second 2026 interim dividend of VND 5,000/share (Vietnamese dong). VND 5,000 is 8.5% of the VND 58,760/share Elmet paid, or ~$10.6M on its 55.1M shares. In September I wrote that Springer, the Nevada APT plant, gives Elmet the one step it didn't own: Turning tungsten concentrate into the oxide its powder line starts from. Elmet's deck calls MSR a "long-time supplier and processor of blue tungsten oxide (BTO)," so MSR already handles the conversion for Elmet. So the step Elmet didn't own in July stays with MSR, and Elmet paid 10.7x MSR's expected 2026 profit for its 4.99% while its own 2031 plan assumes APT at under half the May price.

@BarbarianCap Oct 4 1 click

Barbarian Capital on X

$ONON so in vogue, it made it to the WSJ The Sneaker Taking Over America Was Inspired by iPhones and a Vacuum Cleaner https://t.co/rNjjRCEEnb

@Adam_Wyden Oct 4 1 click

Adam D. Wyden on X

@At50w50882 @310Value @ctfn_news All of their existing debt is portable… this was by design and both mgmt / IR call this out regularly. Only need to raise the new debt….dovigi haters are always gonna hate. That’s why it needs to go private $GFL

The Story Millrose Told Wall Street About Lennar Purchases Doesn’t Match The Evidence

Millrose told Goldman its Lennar purchases had rent-to-own tenants lined up, but most analyzed homes were advertised for rent and showed…

LEN $18BMRP $3.8B

Hunterbrook Oct 8 4 clicks

Nike Taught Me A Dividend Lesson And A China Lesson (Rating Downgrade)

Nike's 4.8% dividend yield masks payout ratios above 100% of forward EPS and inadequate free cash flow coverage, while China sales declines…

NKE $51B

Sensor Unlimited Oct 8

Golar LNG q2’26 Operational Update

Golar LNG ordered a $2.45 billion fourth FLNG vessel, targeting 3.5MTPA of capacity and $400 million in annual EBITDA under a 20-year…

GLNG $4.9B

Monte Independent Investment Research Oct 8

Ex-Goldman MD: "Credit Markets Move in Step Functions"

Geoffrey Williams explains CMBS underwriting, post-GFC securitized-credit risk transfer and why credit markets reprice in step functions.

GS $257B

Odds on Open Oct 8 2 clicks

Top Rebound Stocks for Oct’26

Intuitive Surgical, down 32% from its January 2025 peak, faces slower US procedure growth and new robotic-surgery rivals despite $10.1…

ISRG $147B

Rebound Capital Oct 8 1 click

Credo: The Market Is Wrong About Optics, And That's Creating A Buying Opportunity

Credo expects optical revenue to reach $600 million in FY27 after Q1 revenue grew 114.7% year over year, expanding from AEC cables into AI…

CRDO $40B

Analysis Fundamental Oct 8 4 clicks

Vertiv Holdings Co. (VRT)

Vertiv's 33% stock decline followed a 2026 forecast increase, despite a $15 billion backlog and rising AI data-center demand for power and…

VRT $94B

SixSigmaCapital: Navigating the Financial Markets Oct 8

Lesaka: A $4.69 Stock With a $20–30 Case

Lesaka CEO Ali Mazanderani has bought more than $10 million of stock while pursuing a $20 to $30 valuation case through targeted…

LSAK $405M

Mispriced Assets Oct 8 5 clicks

What I’ve Been Up To

Cogent Communications and AI data-center bottlenecks feature in a newsletter update on recruiting, financial media and conference takeaways.

CCOI $515M

Stock Thoughts Oct 7 2 clicks

Undercovered Dozen: Brookfield Renewable, Annaly Capital, Seagate, And More

Undercovered Dozen spotlights 12 lesser-covered stocks, including Brookfield Renewable, Annaly Capital and Seagate.

BEP $8.8BNLY $14B

The Undercovered Dozen Oct 7

POST · long

Post Holdings INC

Post Holdings remains a large position after the stock's recent decline.

POST $3.3B

Value Investors Club Jul 10

Lesaka: Why He's Betting Big | Ali Mazanderani | Ep. 5

Lesaka’s executive chairman has invested more than $10 million personally and targets EPS compounding above 40% through consumer, merchant…

LSAK $405M

Mispriced Assets Oct 7 2 clicks

A Qualitative Primer on the Nicotine Pouch Space

Nicotine pouches show low brand loyalty and sharply varied preferences, with U.S.

BTI $120B

Sylence Capital Oct 7 4 clicks

ezCater and the Other Half of Uber's FCF

Uber’s $2.3 billion cash purchase of ezCater extends its buy-versus-build strategy and raises questions about the price and capital…

UBER $140BDASH $83B

MBI Deep Dives Oct 7 1 click

L3Harris Technologies (NYSE: LHX) Upgraded Rating: Accumulate

L3Harris upgraded to Accumulate after a 38% stock decline, backed by 8% Q2 revenue growth, a $42 billion backlog and planned Missile…

LHX $44B

Cestrian Capital Research Oct 7 1 click

Cerebras: OpenAI's Nvidia Move Doesn't Break The 750 MW Deal

Cerebras retains its 750 MW commitment despite OpenAI's Nvidia move, but TSMC supply, owned capacity and gross-margin recovery remain the…

CBRS $39B

Deep Value Investing Oct 7

💥New Chapter 11 Bankruptcy Filing - And Go Concepts, LLC (Salad and Go)💥

Salad and Go filed Chapter 11 after its Texas and Oklahoma expansion failed, seeking to sell 65 leases to Dutch Bros for $105 million as 7…

BROS $5.5B

PETITION Oct 7 3 clicks

West Pharma: Still A Buy, But Expectations Are Rising

West Pharmaceutical Services’ GLP-1 demand, HVP upgrades and Annex 1 conversions support double-digit growth, but its premium valuation…

WST $26B

Petri Dish Reports Oct 7

Research Roundup Vol. LV

OpenAI’s enterprise privacy push and Synopsys’s Factory 2 royalty model anchor a technology roundup, alongside oil above $100 and Bitcoin’s…

SNPS $97B

Monte Independent Investment Research Oct 7

Adobe (NASDAQ: ADBE) Stock Rating: Accumulate After Q3 FY11/26 Earnings

Adobe rates Accumulate at $189-$266 after Q3 FY26 revenue grew 12.9%, while management guided slower growth and RPO growth decelerated.

ADBE $90B

Cestrian Capital Research Oct 7 2 clicks

Thursday, October 8, 2026

Lee Roach on X

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Fajasy on X

John_Hempton on X

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