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Wednesday, October 7, 2026

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@StableBread

Fajasy on X

Read skeptically, Nubeva Technologies $NBVAF (TSXV: $NBVA) is a shrinking software company living off its cash, with an AI decryptor builder that keeps slipping and a license customer that may not have renewed. Read another way, Nubeva is being prepared for a buyer. Here’s what supports the second read: → In March 2024, Netskope $NTSK, now a ~$7.6B company, bought Nubeva’s TLS (web-traffic decryption) technology and five patents for $1M. Greig Bannister, the CTO who co-invented the key-capture patents, followed the technology to Netskope. → In an August 2024 video, CEO Randy Chou said “partnering and M&A groups” from companies worth $20-30B had reached out after the July 2024 CrowdStrike $CRWD outage. → Chou wants all four AI patents granted before any partnership or sale, and two are still pending. → The FY2026 MD&A says Nubeva is “selectively engaging with lighthouse accounts,” meaning “large, high-profile organizations that serve as validation points for the technology,” to make its offering “more attractive for either future expansion or strategic partnership/M&A.” In a June 2025 video, Chou said lighthouse accounts “matter 100%” in a partnership or M&A talk. → Sales and marketing spend was $14,951 for all of FY2026, with $2.49M of cash on hand. In the same June 2025 video, Chou said Nubeva is “really not marketing” until “the patents and everything else comes in.” → The most recent investor deck is from July 2023, and since then Nubeva has communicated mostly through filings, press releases, and the occasional YouTube interview. In other words, it isn’t pitching investors either, which fits a company waiting on a buyer. A longtime investor I spoke with described Chou as reluctant to spend money, PR included, and called a sale to a larger security company the clear end goal. I’d add that Chou, who makes the call, also owns a quarter of the company.
@convequity

Convequity on X

$SITM supplies timing devices used in optical modules in NVIDIA-based AI data centers. In an AI data center, a clock exists to keep parts synchronized. Training and inference run across thousands of chips in parallel, and each step depends on data arriving at the right moment. When timing slips, GPUs wait, networks stall, and expensive compute goes unused. The move from 800G to 1.6T optical modules shows how this becomes demand for timing parts. Bandwidth does not simply double. The link is split into more lanes running at higher baud rates. Each lane has a tighter jitter budget, and it often adds clock domains for the DSPs, SerDes groups and laser drivers. So each module carries more timing components, and each component has to meet a higher performance requirement. That pushes average selling prices up alongside unit volumes. The same pattern appears in the switches inside that cluster. A high-radix switch multiplies SerDes lanes as bandwidth scales. When the switch increases radix and speed at the same time, it drives more clock domains across the fabric, the ports, and the control logic. Timing content in the switch therefore multiplies rather than rising in step with the size of the cluster. This is why we see continued hypergrowth for SiTime. In NVIDIA-based data centers, SiTime's parts are discrete devices, separate from the GPU and switch ASICs, allowing timing performance to improve independently as system requirements change, and demand for them rises in several places in the rack at once.
@BrokenMoats 1 click

Broken Moats on X

Secular theme of increasing competition in the coffee space, no issue taking a position against SBUX which still carries a premium valuation largely on that premise. My flip side to that, is why also be long Dutch $BROS? Trades worked against you for almost the same reasons - intensifying competition from direct copy cat 7 Brew. But there are many regional players that are aggressively scaling - Summermoon, Foxtail, Lala land, Merrit, etc and those are the ones just geographically close to me but it's a countrywide phenomenon. Turns out yes coffee is habitual and generates good cash returns, but barriers to entry are low. The bidding war for the Salads real estate was insane, and shows how deep pocketed 7 Brew is in their expansion, and being PE backed and not public means they might be less disciplined...... So why Bros? There might still be potential there, the model is efficient and a cult service culture, but even at current levels I find the valuation difficult to digest not to mention overhangs from GLP1s, affordability/gas prices

Investor Letters

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Research Roundup Vol. LV

OpenAI’s enterprise privacy push and Synopsys’s Factory 2 royalty model anchor a technology roundup, alongside oil above $100 and Bitcoin’s…

SNPS $97B
Monte Independent Investment Research

New Position (ONON): Game is On

On Holding (ONON) is gaining sportswear share, expanding store space and launching soccer with Kylian Mbappé as investors debate U.S.

ONON $11B
Aurelion Research 3 clicks

Deep Dive: Intuit ($INTU)

Intuit’s $21.4 billion software franchise faces AI-driven pricing pressure in tax and accounting, even as QuickBooks and TurboTax retain…

INTU $79B
Rebound Capital 4 clicks
VEEV · long

Veeva Systems INC

Veeva Systems is a vertical software company valued as if its best growth years are behind it.

VEEV $46B
Value Investors Club

Canterra Minerals: Research Note

Canterra Minerals increased Lundberg indicated tonnage 55% to 26.1Mt, with 226.2Kt of contained copper equivalent, supporting a Buchans…

EQX $13B
Atrium Research - Equity Research

Kenorland Minerals: Research Flash

Franco-Nevada bought 10.0 million Kenorland shares, a 12.4% stake, for C$22.2 million in a secondary transaction that issued no new shares.

FNV $46B
Atrium Research - Equity Research 1 click

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