Bullpen.News From Edwin Dorsey
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Monday, October 5, 2026

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𝗣𝗲𝗿𝗰𝗲𝗽𝘁𝗶𝗼𝗻 𝗜𝘀 𝘁𝗵𝗲 𝗧𝗿𝗮𝗱𝗲. It’s funny: most people think the proliferation of information has made finding dislocations harder. I’d argue the opposite. When information was scarce, speed was the edge. Today the problem is information overload. Social media, AI, headlines, experts, hot takes. Just like different news organizations (CNN, Fox, MSNOW) can frame the same political candidate through completely different lenses, markets create narratives that can overwhelm the underlying facts. Every trade is a spread between perception and truth. Merger arb just makes that spread explicit because you have a relatively fixed endpoint (the deal consideration). Regular-way equities are harder because “truth” is a moving target. But you don’t need to know whether $TLN is worth $350, $370 or $390 to recognize when Josh Shapiro and data-center pushback have distorted perception enough to send it to $270. You don’t need to perfectly value every business line of $OWL to recognize when a Bloomberg story has caused the market to paint the entire business with the private-credit apocalypse brush. And it works both ways: $GLND wasn’t suddenly a critical-minerals bonanza because of a Trump headline. Sometimes the narrative creates the overvaluation. Having the best model or talking to the most experts helps you estimate truth. But truth without an understanding of perception isn’t a trade. You can be a little wrong on intrinsic value and still make a lot of money if you correctly identify that the market’s narrative has overshot reality. The edge today isn’t knowing whether something is worth exactly $37 or $39. It’s understanding why it’s trading at $27 in the first place, whether that perception is wrong, and what makes the gap close…

Investor Letters

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British American Tobacco: Harvest

British American Tobacco’s U.S. reset revives combustibles and rebuilds its nicotine-pouch portfolio after legacy-brand writedowns and Velo…

BTI $120B
Invariant 5 clicks

Practical Parametric Yield

Cerebras’s WSE-3 faces parametric-yield constraints that could restrict supply, making power and clock-speed tradeoffs central to its next…

CBRS $39B
Irrational Analysis 3 clicks

ContextLogic

ContextLogic’s US Salt holds about 23% of the US and Canadian pharmaceutical-grade salt market, one of only two suppliers, supporting…

LOGC $688M
Kairos Research

Boston Scientific (BSX): New Position

Boston Scientific’s Farapulse competition and weaker Watchman demand have slowed growth, prompting a $2 billion buyback, restructuring and…

BSX $61B
Aurelion Research 1 click

Jumia

Jumia’s January 2028 $7/$15 call spread risks $1.15 for up to $6.85 if cost cuts and marketplace growth deliver adjusted EBITDA and…

JMIA $866M
Triple S Special Situations Investing 13 clicks

Revisiting Veeva #2

Veeva plans Falcon agents for pharmacovigilance, clinical-trial documents and regulatory writing, targeting multibillion-dollar…

VEEV $48B
Lewistown Capital

Over Target

Ukraine’s Black Sea attacks on CPC infrastructure threaten Kazakhstan’s 1.4 million bpd oil export route through Russia, putting Chevron’s…

CVX $416B
Doomberg

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