Bullpen.News From Edwin Dorsey
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Monday, October 5, 2026

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@ACapitalLP

A Capital on X

𝗣𝗲𝗿𝗰𝗲𝗽𝘁𝗶𝗼𝗻 𝗜𝘀 𝘁𝗵𝗲 𝗧𝗿𝗮𝗱𝗲. It’s funny: most people think the proliferation of information has made finding dislocations harder. I’d argue the opposite. When information was scarce, speed was the edge. Today the problem is information overload. Social media, AI, headlines, experts, hot takes. Just like different news organizations (CNN, Fox, MSNOW) can frame the same political candidate through completely different lenses, markets create narratives that can overwhelm the underlying facts. Every trade is a spread between perception and truth. Merger arb just makes that spread explicit because you have a relatively fixed endpoint (the deal consideration). Regular-way equities are harder because “truth” is a moving target. But you don’t need to know whether $TLN is worth $350, $370 or $390 to recognize when Josh Shapiro and data-center pushback have distorted perception enough to send it to $270. You don’t need to perfectly value every business line of $OWL to recognize when a Bloomberg story has caused the market to paint the entire business with the private-credit apocalypse brush. And it works both ways: $GLND wasn’t suddenly a critical-minerals bonanza because of a Trump headline. Sometimes the narrative creates the overvaluation. Having the best model or talking to the most experts helps you estimate truth. But truth without an understanding of perception isn’t a trade. You can be a little wrong on intrinsic value and still make a lot of money if you correctly identify that the market’s narrative has overshot reality. The edge today isn’t knowing whether something is worth exactly $37 or $39. It’s understanding why it’s trading at $27 in the first place, whether that perception is wrong, and what makes the gap close…

Investor Letters

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GPK · long

Graphic Packaging Holding CO

Graphic Packaging (GPK) is pitched as a long with $22 fair value, implying roughly 100% upside, based on its low-cost paper-based packaging…

GPK $2.5B
Value Investors Club 2 clicks

American Biltrite - OTC:ABLT

American Biltrite carries $41 million of asbestos and environmental liabilities and $28 million of debt, leaving property sales, cost cuts…

ABLT $0M
Obscure Stocks

GAMCO Investors, Inc. - GAMI

GAMCO Investors trades OTC at a $550 million market cap, with $150 million in excess cash and a 5.2-5.7x operating-income valuation despite…

GAMI $553M
Exploring with Alluvial Capital

RH - the Universe Intervenes?

RH’s debt-funded luxury expansion faces weakening demand, deeper member discounts and a balance sheet strained by $2.4 billion of net debt.

RH $2.2B
Brevarthan Research 1 click

Acuren Q2 Earnings review

Acuren's Q2 revenue rose 1.5% to $313.9 million before its NV5 merger; post-close selling drove TIC down 21% as management targets $20…

TIC $1.9B
Kairos Research

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