Not So Fast
Entravision, the portfolio’s largest position, fell more than 40% from its highs as Q3 returns dropped to 37.8% YTD.
Entravision, the portfolio’s largest position, fell more than 40% from its highs as Q3 returns dropped to 37.8% YTD.
Robert DeMartini and the entire board of $PRPL qualify for my special rule of “if you turn down multiple acquisition offers and then the company goes down 90% you go to jail for 5 years and all comp is clawed back and dividended back to shareholders”
Just want to check in here, thx. $ALOY https://t.co/f8zOpxU1CK
Sobering one: of 31 distinct names, only 2 have actually reached my Realistic Valuation target. $EVTL and $RR. Median downside capture on the Sept '25 list: 73% of the decline I forecast. On the 2026 lists: 22-41%. Direction right. Magnitude still pending. This means there is still lots of meat on the bone in many of these names.
Across all 110 position-instances: Average short return: +25.7%Median: +23.1%Hit rate: 81% — 89 of 110 names fell Best call, and it wasn't close: $EVTL Vertical Aerospace $5.00 → $0.58 Top performer on all five lists. The Sept '25 entry is +88%. Even the July '26 entry is +66%. The company flagged going-concern risk in a filing this month.
The rest of the Sept '25 podium — a full year of holding: $EVTL +88% $SMR +77% $LVWR +76% $OKLO +73% $BTQ +73% $SOUN +69% $RGTI +67% 19 of the 20 names on that list fell. Nineteen.
@BertrandPirel to what do you attribute the substantial availability (1.85m shares) and low borrow cost (3.25%) for $GPRO at IBKR?
Astute observation here. $STLN could not be better situated for the current environment, imo. https://t.co/sy97F9J9YU
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ARKO trades at 3 times estimated 2025 owner’s earnings, while its 73.6% APC stake exceeds its $473 million market cap.
Bumble trades at roughly 2x owner’s earnings and 4.76x enterprise value, with Whitney Wolfe Herd’s return central to a rerating case.
ELME · long Elme Communities, a REIT, is nearing the end of a long liquidation process.
Riley Exploration Permian raised oil production guidance after a Q2 beat, targeting 30% growth while trading at 6.52 times forward earnings.
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Special-situations survey flags Cooper’s $3 billion buyback, Grab’s $900 million repurchase, and Beretta’s $44.80 partial tender for Sturm…
Beasley Broadcast Group's equity hinges on repaying or arranging sales for roughly $115.5 million of debt by September 2027, before PIK…
LifeMD cut 2026 revenue and EBITDA guidance as subscribers fell and customer acquisition costs reached 59% of revenue, prompting a shift…
Zentek initiation report.
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Groupon CEO Dušan Šenkypl and CFO Rana Kashyap discuss rebuilding the local-experiences marketplace with AI infrastructure, better…
Independence Realty Trust is buying Centerspace in stock to create an $8.1 billion apartment REIT, targeting 5% 2027 Core FFO per-share…
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