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Tuesday, September 29, 2026

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Toll roads in the sky

Asia's elevator boom favors maintenance and modernization providers, with Otis deriving nearly 90% of operating profit from after-sales services rather than new installations.

OTIS $24B
Asian Century Stocks 1 click

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@negligible_cap 1 click

Negligible Capital on X

$TMUS, $VZ, $T, teleco's continuing underperformance today after getting sold hard last week. GS last week blamed Instinct and Muse for the selloff given their ability to negotiate and cancel bills: "While US telcos traded down (TMUS -5.5%; AT&T-2% & VZ -3%) on concerns on X chatter around Meta’s Muse and rival AI agent Instinct has focused on their new ability to make outbound calls to U.S. businesses, including negotiating phone and cable bills on behalf of users. This could become a risk for telcos because AI agents can wait on hold, escalate with support teams, switch users to cheaper plans, remove add-ons and claim credits at scale—potentially increasing pressure on ARPU, retention economics and customer-service costs. The same risk applies to European names as these AI assistant role out. But its NOT just telcos as other industries could also face pressure -industries most at risk are those with recurring bills, negotiable pricing, confusing add-ons, high churn incentives and customer-service friction—including cable/broadband, insurance, utilities, banks/credit cards, subscriptions, travel, healthcare billing, retail returns, auto leasing and gyms. If AI agents can persistently call, wait on hold, compare offers, cancel services, claim credits and renegotiate terms on behalf of customers, companies that rely on inertia or under-claimed discounts could face higher retention discounts, lower add-on revenue, more support volume and weaker pricing power. PS – have been using Instinct for a week of so – its pretty impressive once you get past the hesitance of giving access to parts of your life (not brave enough on a bank account) – book restaurants, tennis courts, highlight must read emails – its also picks up inaccuracies of emails and sources what is inaccurate." - GS Sean Johnstone

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Quick Value #332 - Gentherm (THRM)

Gentherm’s Oct. 1 Reverse Morris Trust with Modine adds commercial and off-highway operations, leaving THRM at 7.4x pro forma EBITDA with…

MOD $9.9B
Value Don't Lie 3 clicks

On’s Premium Playbook

On Holdings targets premium growth through 2029, using LightSpray soccer cleats and higher pricing, with ASPs rising from $145 to $170…

ONON $9.8B
TSOH Investment Research 4 clicks
CBOE · long

Cboe Global Markets INC

Cboe Global Markets trades near $232, with a roughly $24.3 billion market cap, net cash and a 16-17x forward P/E.

CBOE $29B
Value Investors Club 3 clicks

Hindsight Capital

Hindsight Capital tests crisis-era investment decisions using anonymized company financials, including TransDigm, Halma and Texas Pacific…

TDG $60BTPL $23B
Rebound Capital 6 clicks

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