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Tuesday, September 29, 2026

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Toll roads in the sky

Asia's elevator boom favors maintenance and modernization providers, with Otis deriving nearly 90% of operating profit from after-sales services rather than new installations.

OTIS $24B
Asian Century Stocks 1 click

From X

@KEDM_COM 2 clicks

KEDM.com on X

Right Tail @JeremyKokemor bought $HCA at about 12x earnings on a local-density argument: hospitals compete neighborhood by neighborhood, and HCA holds #1 or #2 share — averaging 25-30% of each market in about 80% of its markets, primarily in Sunbelt states. Outpatient access points — 14 per hospital, heading toward 20 — feed the hospitals, and about 75% of admissions arrive through the ER. Margins held in the high teens through 2009, and half the shares have been retired since the 2011 re-IPO. Historically, HCA has compounded revenue at roughly 7% annually and EPS closer to 17%; Right Tail models mid-single-digit revenue growth and 10-15% EPS growth.
@Fierce__beast 1 click

Fierce_beast on X

Here's the J-curve stock shape -- many examples of software stocks and high growth stocks, sometimes even large mature companies that release a new product. $MPWR was shaping up for this in November 2024 (I wrote about this and went long) when it dropped a lot after they "lost $NVDA" marketshare, but of course their custom AI accelerator business was growing something like 100% a year, and it was only a matter of time before it showed up in the earnings. It subsequently re-rated after troughing at 35x and had significant earnings growth. Today it goes for 35x again. Will there be another big bump in a few years, maybe robotics?

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Uber: The Aggregator on Trial

Uber's $193 billion in gross bookings and $10 billion in free cash flow contrast with modest stock gains as autonomous vehicles and…

DASH $81B
MBI Deep Dives 2 clicks

Quick Value #332 - Gentherm (THRM)

Gentherm’s Oct. 1 Reverse Morris Trust with Modine adds commercial and off-highway operations, leaving THRM at 7.4x pro forma EBITDA with…

MOD $9.9B
Value Don't Lie 3 clicks

On’s Premium Playbook

On Holdings targets premium growth through 2029, using LightSpray soccer cleats and higher pricing, with ASPs rising from $145 to $170…

ONON $9.8B
TSOH Investment Research 4 clicks
CBOE · long

Cboe Global Markets INC

Cboe Global Markets trades near $232, with a roughly $24.3 billion market cap, net cash and a 16-17x forward P/E.

CBOE $29B
Value Investors Club 3 clicks

Hindsight Capital

Hindsight Capital tests crisis-era investment decisions using anonymized company financials, including TransDigm, Halma and Texas Pacific…

TDG $60BTPL $23B
Rebound Capital 6 clicks

Reddit: DCF Valuation

Reddit’s DCF values shares at $225, driven by international ARPU expansion from $2.2 to $8.3 by 2035 and 38% operating margins.

RDDT $28B
Hated Moats 7 clicks

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