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Monday, September 28, 2026

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@HaydenCapital 1 click

Fred Liu on X

What a story... Zhang Junjie was orphaned at 10 and homeless, to illiterate at 17, to Billionaire by 32. I first tried Chagee in Shenzhen last year, and then again at their first US-outpost (Los Angeles). It's a great product, and their "Guochao" branding on point (modernized traditional Chinese aesthetic). From Haidilao & Tai Er, to Luckin, HeyTea, and now Chagee entering the US, pretty excited to watch US consumers finally be introduced to upscale Chinese F&B brands (please, no more Panda Express...). $CHA
@MultiplesCap

Multiples Capital on X

$EXPE has always been a much slower grower than $BKNG, won't be surprised if it's a fav pair trade of hedge fund (long booking, short expe). Over the years though Expedia has been going through internal changes, sold some businesses (Egencia to AmEx travel and few other sites), went through a technology transformation for internal sites (Expedia, https://t.co/ap3OIandej, Vrbo). 50% improvement in operating margin since 2019. But not as profitable as Booking (operating margin at 12% vs 32% for bkng). Mainly a US focused player (unlike bkng) with a very strong B2B segment that's growing mid teens and about 30% of total revenue), now looking to expand internationally. To be seen if that would drive higher margin given the much fragmented hotel market internationally vs US. Bkng on the other hand seeing revenue growth slowing down to high single digit and mid teens eps growth with margins declining since 2019. Expedia needs to show higher top line growth but possible still delivers mid teens eps growth. Travel is cyclical but these OTA are very robust, they saw revenue growth even in the financial crisis, as more ppl look for deals. AI is an unknown, Expedia is embracing it. Finding a hotel with the right deal is not same as getting an answer to a question from LLM, distribution/platform should remain valuable. Interesting to see how the pieces fall for Expedia, PEG < 1 and these multiples should atleast provide downside protection

Investor Letters

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On’s Premium Playbook

On Holdings targets premium growth through 2029, using LightSpray soccer cleats and higher pricing, with ASPs rising from $145 to $170…

ONON $11B
TSOH Investment Research 4 clicks

Hindsight Capital

Hindsight Capital tests crisis-era investment decisions using anonymized company financials, including TransDigm, Halma and Texas Pacific…

TDG $60BTPL $24B
Rebound Capital 6 clicks
SFIX · long

Stitch Fix INC

Stitch Fix’s 2017 IPO rested on overly ambitious long-term growth expectations and an unrealistic definition of its addressable market.

SFIX $353M
Value Investors Club 1 click

The Brookfield Moat Masterclass

Brookfield’s BN, BAM, BIP, BEP and BBUC span asset management, infrastructure, renewables and private equity, with BN valued at a 15–20%…

BN $81B
Brad Thomas

Updates

FGPR remains on track, PRTH's management buyout is set at $8.05, and microcap RAVE is described as cheap.

PRTH $644M
Nat Stewart - Stock Picking Newsletter 8 clicks

Reddit: DCF Valuation

Reddit’s DCF values shares at $225, driven by international ARPU expansion from $2.2 to $8.3 by 2035 and 38% operating margins.

RDDT $31B
Hated Moats 4 clicks

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