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Monday, September 28, 2026

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Convequity on X

Rocket Lab just won its biggest launch contract ever: $266 million from the U.S. Space Force The deal covers 12 guaranteed suborbital test launches (with options for 6 more) for missile-defense work. First flight no earlier than the end of 2026, mostly from a brand-new Rocket Lab site in Alaska. This locks in real multi-year defense work and a new U.S. launch site. Solid backlog signal for $RKLB — and exactly why we keep the position in the Convequity portfolio.
@convequity 1 click

Convequity on X

Samsara and the physical-AI narrative We exited $IOT. The market is still pricing it as a core beneficiary of the coming wave of AI-enabled robots in warehouses, offices, and homes. Our read is different. Samsara’s real differentiation is software orchestration for distributed IoT fleets, not proprietary sensors or hardware. The physical sensors are outsourced to Asian manufacturers, and the orchestration layer itself is exactly the part of the stack that AI coding tools are making easier to replicate. As a result, the competitive position looks less durable than the current narrative suggests.
@convequity 1 click

Convequity on X

Rubrik’s quiet edge in the agentic era As enterprises deploy autonomous AI agents, the real constraint is becoming governed access to trusted data — not just more models. $RBRK’s Annapurna is building exactly that layer: indexing unstructured data in place, preserving Zero Trust controls, and turning the backup estate into a secure, queryable foundation for AI. In a world where agents can move fast and break things, the company that already owns the governed copy of enterprise data is well positioned.
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Convequity on X

The complacency is the point. Gas-directed rigs are still only in the low-to-mid 120s and the trend remains essentially flat. Turbine lead times run 3–5 years and the major OEMs are already sold out into 2029–31. Data-center announcements are loud today, but the actual incremental gas draw from behind-the-meter and new generation does not hit the system until the turbines arrive and the sites come online. That lag is why the market can keep treating gas as abundant through 2026–27 even as the structural deficit builds. When the convexity shows up, it will likely arrive later and harder than most are pricing. $EQT, $AR, $CRK

Investor Letters

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On’s Premium Playbook

On Holdings targets premium growth through 2029, using LightSpray soccer cleats and higher pricing, with ASPs rising from $145 to $170…

ONON $11B
TSOH Investment Research 5 clicks

Hindsight Capital

Hindsight Capital tests crisis-era investment decisions using anonymized company financials, including TransDigm, Halma and Texas Pacific…

TDG $60BTPL $24B
Rebound Capital 7 clicks
SFIX · long

Stitch Fix INC

Stitch Fix’s 2017 IPO rested on overly ambitious long-term growth expectations and an unrealistic definition of its addressable market.

SFIX $353M
Value Investors Club 2 clicks

The Brookfield Moat Masterclass

Brookfield’s BN, BAM, BIP, BEP and BBUC span asset management, infrastructure, renewables and private equity, with BN valued at a 15–20%…

BN $81B
Brad Thomas 1 click

Updates

FGPR remains on track, PRTH's management buyout is set at $8.05, and microcap RAVE is described as cheap.

PRTH $642M
Nat Stewart - Stock Picking Newsletter 13 clicks

Reddit: DCF Valuation

Reddit’s DCF values shares at $225, driven by international ARPU expansion from $2.2 to $8.3 by 2035 and 38% operating margins.

RDDT $29B
Hated Moats 8 clicks

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