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Monday, September 28, 2026

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@convequity

Convequity on X

Why we exited $CRSP and kept $TEM AlphaFold solved the backend of the problem — predicting a protein’s 3D structure from its sequence. The harder frontend problem remains: knowing which protein or pathway is actually worth targeting. Most complex diseases are still poorly understood at the causal level. That distinction matters. The next real breakthroughs look more likely to come from AI-native groups that treat large-scale compute as the primary engine, in the same way OpenAI and Anthropic approached language before the ChatGPT moment. Public investors may only get clean access later via secondaries or IPOs. CRISPR sits on the earlier-generation side of that divide. Tempus is closer to the compute-and-data native side — building models while assembling a genuine clinical data moat. That is why one was exited and the other retained.
@evantindell

Evan Tindell on X

Finally got a chance to go through the $UMG earnings... Obviously, a disappointment on revenue growth and margins, which saw the stock drop like 20%. Subscription revenue was 6.7% organically, and the street was looking for >9%. So, a big miss. Still, I think things should improve. Apple, Spotify, Amazon, and YouTube music have all raised prices this year, and a portion of that will go to UMG. CFO Matt Ellis said on the call that these prices and "better market share to start the third quarter" make them "cautiously optimistic" (really sticking his neck out there!!) that growth will improve in H2 of 2026. Interestingly, Warner Music $WMG managed to grow revenue 12% in CC and adjusted OIBDA by 24%, so clearly this is a UMG-only problem, at least for this quarter. $UMG trades at 14x earnings on a NTM basis now... this seems pretty reasonable if not downright cheap for a company that has grown EBIT from EUR 1b in 2019 to around 2b today (11% organic EBITDA CAGR). We own this through Bollore, which currently has an NAV of just above 11 EUR by my calculation vs a last price of under 4 EUR. Notably, JPM thinks new AI tiers in Spotify and Apple Music will drive ARPU growth of 300 bps per year. Their price target was 48 EUR prior to the recent earnings release...
@BrokenMoats 1 click

Broken Moats on X

$RBLX no victory laps I gave up my short a long time ago. Felt the stock was manipulated by insiders to gas monetization and trends with smash and grab tactics like grow a garden drops, etc. That policy that drove the stock higher is also their undoing as the comp trends reverse and monetization declines. But the real undoing here is that he company, and I solely would call out the CEO who has majority voting power, that it is their lack of seriousness around safety that is undoing their platform and could ultimately completely unravel their business. Most parents I talk to won't let their kids play on Roblox even if they had in in years past. They are more comfortable giving them a switch to fulfill any gaming time because of the lack of safety concerns. David had a concept and it took off, got scale, built a genuine niche marketplace and network and he continues to squander that opportunity with poor operating efficiency (see costs), awful capital allocation, and some of the worst governance of any company over a $1B I have seen by dismissing the open problems on his platform, then only after issues are very public making half attempts to put in safety controls like age verification that he touts on Bloomberg interviews the day of. Its a shame the CEO has voting control, because if you could remove him their could be potential here at current prices based of the network, cash flow and the ability to dramatically improve monetization with advertising and brand partnerships over time. But you would need a big public campaign directed at parents on Bloomberg that the company is serious on safety and protections and will clean up their user account issues, and get serious on capital allocation (one buying shares to cover dilution regardless of share price is garbage policy - have conviction, buy when its attractive, and stay out when its not). @BillAckman said he was psychologically short after he walked from Herbalife, not the same as making money alongside your conviction but the best shorts are often complicated to fully execute on. But few public companies that feel more satisfaction in going down then Roblox due to their management team and disregard for their users safety

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Hindsight Capital

Hindsight Capital tests crisis-era investment decisions using anonymized company financials, including TransDigm, Halma and Texas Pacific…

TDG $60BTPL $23B
Rebound Capital 6 clicks

Reddit: DCF Valuation

Reddit’s DCF values shares at $225, driven by international ARPU expansion from $2.2 to $8.3 by 2035 and 38% operating margins.

RDDT $28B
Hated Moats 7 clicks

TSOH Weekly Roundup (09/25/2026)

TSOH Weekly Roundup covers Ralph Lauren’s $1 billion distribution pullback, Peloton’s $2,195 foldable treadmill and $800 million…

RL $21B
TSOH Investment Research 5 clicks
CBOE · long

Cboe Global Markets INC

Cboe Global Markets trades near $232, with a roughly $24.3 billion market cap, net cash and a 16-17x forward P/E.

CBOE $29B
Value Investors Club 3 clicks

The Brookfield Moat Masterclass

Brookfield’s BN, BAM, BIP, BEP and BBUC span asset management, infrastructure, renewables and private equity, with BN valued at a 15–20%…

BN $82B
Brad Thomas

CoreWeave, Inc (CRWV)

CoreWeave funds GPU data-center expansion with debt backed by $104 billion in contracted revenue, while GPU cloud rentals generate roughly…

CRWV $49B
SixSigmaCapital: Navigating the Financial Markets 9 clicks

GameStop Is Extreme Deep Value

GameStop's collectibles mix rose to 45% of sales as gross margin reached 44%, supporting a deep-value case built on cash and store…

GME $12B
The Value Road 8 clicks

A2Gold: Research Note

A2Gold’s first Taylor drill holes returned 20.96 g/t AuEq over 1.5m and 209.4 g/t silver over 10.7m, alongside 141.10 g/t gold at…

KGC $29B
Atrium Research - Equity Research 3 clicks

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