Bullpen.News From Edwin Dorsey
Get Daily Recap Feedback

Sunday, September 27, 2026

Back to today

From X

@BrokenMoats

Broken Moats on X

$QXO gang anyone have a current cap table, wanted to run some numbers but its hard to keep up with all the issuance/debt offerings.... Pro forma suggests there is around 1.1B shares outstanding? (will that include all the financing to get Topbuild closed (I believe so)? + around $8B in net debt (pro forma) So at $14 a share - that would be roughly $23B EV value? Anyone confirm this or tell me which pieces are wrong (for Kodiak, beacon and Topbuild) Roughly $2B EBITDA off their press release (probably up for debate, rates/economy, then need to look how much synergies might be backed into that) So 4x leveraged (means likely more shares need to get issued to de-risk especially with interest rate risks and transmission to demand) so 11.5x with mote dilution (likely).....getting close but not there yet - still think you need to wait for 10x or < Last and most important question does the math around Beacon change - 15x is meaty for a distributor multiple so unlikely they walk. But with the 45/55 split (is there floor conditions or will TopBuild eat that difference if/when they vote later this month (if not anyone know what the break fee is). Thanks in advance
@ActAccordingly 2 clicks

PAA Research on X

I call this the "LLOK" trade (Lower Leg of the K). This is a really interesting non-consensus thematic opportunity, dare I call it contrarian (if you're old enough to remember when that was a preferred approach to alpha generation). Investors have been quick to dismiss anything resembling a LLOK trade, but look what's happened in the past few weeks: $DLTR, $CASY, $CBRL, $PENN, $PRKS all massively outperforming in the past month. I'll include my beloved $CAKE in this group. Yes, some of that is factor rotation, but employment tailwinds for this consumer set might be better as a result of data center CAPEX/reindustrialization, and the "sell these names on gas prices" trade couldn't be hackneyed analysis. Finally, follow @TiberiusCapital, he's one of the best investors I know.
@ActAccordingly 1 click

PAA Research on X

This infographic looks hugely bearish to me and clearly I'm not the only one seeing it that way. That bar chart in the middle looks like a disaster as does allocating 30% of this deal to retail. Being multiple times oversubscribed is not what people want to hear at this point. How many guys put in orders expecting to get one-tenth or 1-20th of their ask? If those funds get filled at higher levels, you can expect $MS to really extend its balance sheet tomorrow to prevent this from breaking issue. Maybe the book really fills in over the next 30 hours, but usually if a deal's hot you would see stronger orders at this point. The $MS equity capital markets team has a long few days ahead. $SPCX

Investor Letters

All letters

Updates

FGPR remains on track, PRTH's management buyout is set at $8.05, and microcap RAVE is described as cheap.

PRTH $644M
Nat Stewart - Stock Picking Newsletter 13 clicks

Reddit: DCF Valuation

Reddit’s DCF values shares at $225, driven by international ARPU expansion from $2.2 to $8.3 by 2035 and 38% operating margins.

RDDT $31B
Hated Moats 8 clicks
THC · long

Tenet Healthcare CORP

Tenet Healthcare generates roughly two-thirds of profits from hospitals and one-third from ambulatory surgery centers.

THC $21B
Value Investors Club 2 clicks

Publications we follow

Every publication on this site, hand-picked.

109 publications

Newsletters 92

YouTube 4

Blogs 12

Seeking Alpha 44 of 216

Nominate a publication

X accounts we follow

Every account on this site, hand-picked.

74 accounts
Nominate an account

Investor letters we follow

189 firms

Sectors

Ordered by how often our editor reaches for them.