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Saturday, September 26, 2026

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New Buy : Honeywell Aerospace $HONA

Honeywell Aerospace, newly spun off as HONA, fell 41% from post-listing highs after Q2 2026 as supply-chain bottlenecks delayed revenue catch-up despite long-lived aerospace aftermarket…

HONA $49B
D Invests 13 clicks

From X

@AltayCapital 2 clicks

AltayCap on X

The only industries where obvious capital allocation lingo is useful is leasing / banking / insurance. It's much more nebulous in operating businesses that do real things. $AER ceo saying the cheapest commercial jets are on the NYSE under the ticker AER is easy to understand. As math is pencilling out cost of new orders vs buying back stock. $FOUR competes in the real world. Leasing/banking products are fungible. Much harder biz to forecast. Cap allocation is still important, but a lot harder.
@Fierce__beast

Fierce_beast on X

I guess the issue with buying corporate debt is what if interest rates keep going up or if there is inflation? Fixed rate coupon at 6% you might need to wait till maturity to get paid back. But what if there's also increased inflation? according to blackrock it looks like weighted average maturity is like 9-10 years or so for their BBB index $LQDP. With $MCD and $OTIS i think you get a 6%+ total return in most inflation or interest rate environments at these valuations, hopefully more. I was underwriting something closer to 7-8% for both those stocks personally, but probably 6% would be OK, as I am 200% leveraged long and maybe gonna go higher, so expected return on my equity from these ideas is closer to 12%, maybe 16%. But then adds some other benefits that seem decently valuable, like MCD beta .4, otis .88, defensively better than a lot of stocks in case of a recession. Maybe $MCD is just getting degrossed as everyone leveraged it up on their portfolios at the same time expecting an accepetable return of lets say 5% but leveraged 2x or more they were getting a 10%+ ROE on thier protfolio and now degrossing it at the same time. Not totally sure if i'm underwriting correctly, or if this is the best idea in the world, seemed just OK.
@Fierce__beast 1 click

Fierce_beast on X

i went long $otis and $MCD this week. i'm not really expecting anything spectacular, maybe 6% returns from these ideas, hoping for 8%+. but i think after this drawdown they present decent risk/rewards in a case where interest rates and or inflation continue to worsen. $OTIS did well during the great recession 08/09. -6% organic sales drop, op profit down only 1.2%. Valuable asset in that sense, even though the upside is capped a bit here as things are slowing down for it globally. This is not a bullet proof scenario that they do well in the next recession, stock could still drop 40%.

Investor Letters

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CoreWeave, Inc (CRWV)

CoreWeave funds GPU data-center expansion with debt backed by $104 billion in contracted revenue, while GPU cloud rentals generate roughly…

CRWV $49B
SixSigmaCapital: Navigating the Financial Markets 9 clicks

GameStop Is Extreme Deep Value

GameStop's collectibles mix rose to 45% of sales as gross margin reached 44%, supporting a deep-value case built on cash and store…

GME $12B
The Value Road 8 clicks

Airbnb 4Q25: Business Update

Airbnb’s fourth-quarter revenue rose 12% to $2.8 billion and GBV 16%, while product improvements and AI spending target booking conversion…

ABNB $94B
Speedwell Memos 2 clicks

Ferrari Exploratory Report

Ferrari sells about 13,000 vehicles annually, generating €7 billion of revenue and 28% operating margins; its shares trade at 32 times…

RACE $68B
Speedwell Memos 1 click

Portfolio Update January 2026

DInvests sold Thermo Fisher, Dollar General, Dollar Tree and Edwards Lifesciences, then bought Pool Corp and Kraft Heinz while adding to…

KHC $27B
D Invests

Can AI Read the Market?

Gemini’s chart-only analysis favors Nutrien, soybeans, nickel and sugar, while rating Constellation Software a sideline despite its 40%…

NTR $34B
AmsterdamStocks

Affirm (AFRM): Buy Now, Cry Later

Affirm, a $25 billion buy now, pay later lender, faces a short thesis comparing its model with failed subprime monoline finance companies.

AFRM $23B
Kerrisdale Capital

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