The Groupon Turnaround — Dušan Šenkypl & Rana Kashyap | Ep. 3
Groupon CEO Dušan Šenkypl and CFO Rana Kashyap discuss rebuilding the local-experiences marketplace with AI infrastructure, better recommendations and repeat purchases.
Thursday, September 17, 2026
Back to today 
From X
catechwilliams on X
$NX 5% of COGS/ direct input costs sourced from China. Tariffs + zero pricing power, high fixed cost structure + only 30% GMs = 25-30% hit to EBIT. Add 4x leverage, declining volumes, ambitious mgmt guidance while integrating a large acquisition is a setup for a trainwreck.
catechwilliams on X
$DAKT CEO departing, new high-quality CFO (temp) w very attractive secular tailwinds in digital display demand + activist involvement = increased likelihood of takeout. Optimal business for PE. Multiple logical strategics. +75% upside.
catechwilliams on X
$NX Outlandishly guiding to flat 2025 sales, customers and channel -DD. Commodity window and door components facing pricing pressure from larger customers ($JELD, $OC). Now levered 4x, trading at a premium to higher value-add building products peers. Guide cut inevitable.
catechwilliams on X
$NX Rapidly declining levered (4x) commodity biz. Q1’25 guide -12% sales, mgmt hoping for 2H’25 recovery. End-mkts deteriorating ($OC -20% Q4 guide, $JELD), customer losses, internal controls issues, integrating a large acq, 0 prior M&A experience. +30x P/E on best case 2025 #s
catechwilliams on X
$AS 50x P/E levered retail roll-up w only one decent asset (Arc’teryx). Stagnating in the US, nearly fully-penetrated in China. >$500 jackets didn’t work for $GOOS in Asia. Arc already bigger. Hyper promotional mgmt sent the stock skyward. This is going to be an epic crash.
catechwilliams on X
$DAKT New $50M display upgrade award for the Miami Heat arena. Will be a nice boost to current quarter earnings (FQ2'25). https://t.co/sLAFBEerYi
catechwilliams on X
$NX Just acquired peer Tyman. >3x leverage, never done a deal before, commodity business, customers all cutting numbers w deteriorating resi remodel activity ($AMWD yesterday, $MBC, $OC, $JELD). Stock is trading at close to 14x EPS. Seen this movie before. Earnings next week.
Voss Capital on X
Here is a link to our Q1 2024 letter. https://t.co/mVYPJrgCr1 $SWI $IMXI $ALTG $GENI $RTO $RCM $SLCA @jonrice80 @taylor_hndrson
Investor Letters
All letters- Pendelhaven Asset Management B.V. July 2026 DR0 $454MGRVY $464M
- Asset Value Investors Ltd July 2026 079940 $410M
- Forager Funds Management July 2026 BVS $991M
- PenderFund Capital Management Ltd. July 2026 TSAT $746M
- Palm Harbour Capital July 2026 082920 $938M
- Protean Funds July 2026 TRUE-B $584M
- Artisan Partners Q2 2026 BW $873M
- Royce Investment Partners first half of 2026 AIOT $352MPAR $559M
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Dane Bowler 
ContextLogic Acquires gChem (LOGC): Update and Valuation
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Build-A-Bear Workshop, the toy retailer.
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Equity Eagle 2 clicks
EVC Update
EVC reported a solid second quarter and outlook.
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Equity Eagle 
Burry on Build-A-Bear, Part 1
Michael Burry on Build-A-Bear Workshop, Part 1.
FBRT · long Franklin Bsp Realty Trust In
Franklin BSP Realty Trust, a commercial mortgage REIT, is presented as a long at $8.20 per share and a $757 million market capitalization.
Barnes & Noble Education: Improving Fundamentals
Barnes & Noble Education is shifting from campus bookstore retail toward recurring-revenue infrastructure for inclusive-access course…
Given Mahlangu 2 clicks
Late August 2026 Random Ramblings
Higher rates could compress equity multiples and raise AI data center lease costs, while UWMC and Cogent raise questions about CEO-driven…
The Verra Sneerer (NASDAQ:VRRM)
Verra Mobility renewed Hertz tolling management for five years. AutoKinex lets rental customers buy tolling, fuel and protection products…
ARQQ 2026-08-25 Arqit Quantum: The Little Boat That Couldn't
Arqit Quantum trades at 397.6x FY26 EV/Sales while facing 5.44 million shares of dilution, cash burn and uncertain recurring revenue.
Luis Cortes Dequidt 1 click
US-Canada Tariffs: Finding Investment Opportunities
US-Canada tariffs impose 50% duties on $20 billion of Canadian goods, lifting US steel makers while pressuring Canadian exporters and…
RCEL 2026-08-24 AVITA Medical: Favorable Reimbursements For Skin Wound Care
AVITA Medical’s more predictable reimbursement, RECELL GO rollout and PermeaDerm economics support adoption, with cash flow breakeven…
Myriam Alvarez 4 clicks
WD #355: AUNA/CAAP Earnings, Brazil, USMCA Trade Situation
CAAP reported decent second-quarter earnings and its first dividend, while Brazil rose on an election poll and USMCA trade developments…
Aloe Aloe Aloe what 'ave VERRA then?
Verra Mobility's new seven-year Avis agreement replaces a customer worth over 10% of revenue on materially worse economics, exposing…
Going against the grain on GO Residential
GO Residential’s H&R REIT deal could trigger index purchases of 32 million units and re-rate its Lantower portfolio, despite related-party…
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