A Busted Businesses or a Cyclical Bottom?
Two U.S. protein-snacking companies lost $6 billion in market value as impairments, inventory growth and margin pressure test whether the category has reached a cyclical bottom.
Monday, September 7, 2026
Back to today 
From X
catechwilliams on X
$NX Outlandishly guiding to flat 2025 sales, customers and channel -DD. Commodity window and door components facing pricing pressure from larger customers ($JELD, $OC). Now levered 4x, trading at a premium to higher value-add building products peers. Guide cut inevitable.
catechwilliams on X
$NX Rapidly declining levered (4x) commodity biz. Q1’25 guide -12% sales, mgmt hoping for 2H’25 recovery. End-mkts deteriorating ($OC -20% Q4 guide, $JELD), customer losses, internal controls issues, integrating a large acq, 0 prior M&A experience. +30x P/E on best case 2025 #s
catechwilliams on X
$AS 50x P/E levered retail roll-up w only one decent asset (Arc’teryx). Stagnating in the US, nearly fully-penetrated in China. >$500 jackets didn’t work for $GOOS in Asia. Arc already bigger. Hyper promotional mgmt sent the stock skyward. This is going to be an epic crash.
catechwilliams on X
$DAKT New $50M display upgrade award for the Miami Heat arena. Will be a nice boost to current quarter earnings (FQ2'25). https://t.co/sLAFBEerYi
catechwilliams on X
$NX Just acquired peer Tyman. >3x leverage, never done a deal before, commodity business, customers all cutting numbers w deteriorating resi remodel activity ($AMWD yesterday, $MBC, $OC, $JELD). Stock is trading at close to 14x EPS. Seen this movie before. Earnings next week.
Voss Capital on X
Here is a link to our Q1 2024 letter. https://t.co/mVYPJrgCr1 $SWI $IMXI $ALTG $GENI $RTO $RCM $SLCA @jonrice80 @taylor_hndrson
catechwilliams on X
$LYTS Very attractive acq of EMI following successful prior M&A blueprint--significant cross-selling op, cost reduction, expands product set which further solidifies dominant national position. Seeing +50% upside to shares from here.
Little Owl Research on X
@Tonyforever2003 @marketplunger1 This is exactly what came to my mind when reading this. I'm long $GPRK and $GTE for precisely this reason.
Investor Letters
All letters- Pendelhaven Asset Management B.V. July 2026 DR0 $454MGRVY $464M
- Asset Value Investors Ltd July 2026 079940 $410M
- Forager Funds Management July 2026 BVS $984M
- PenderFund Capital Management Ltd. July 2026 TSAT $746M
- Palm Harbour Capital July 2026 082920 $938M
- Protean Funds July 2026 TRUE-B $584M
- Royce Investment Partners first half of 2026 AIOT $352MPAR $559M
- Protean Funds June 2026 TRUE-B $584MVIVA $349M
Shattuck Labs: A Receptor-Side Bet On The TL1A Boom
Shattuck Labs pivots to DR3-targeted IBD therapy SL-325, funded through a Phase 2b readout as it competes with anti-TL1A drugs.
Equity Eagle 
Late August 2026 Random Ramblings
Higher rates could compress equity multiples and raise AI data center lease costs, while UWMC and Cogent raise questions about CEO-driven…
The Verra Sneerer (NASDAQ:VRRM)
Verra Mobility renewed Hertz tolling management for five years. AutoKinex lets rental customers buy tolling, fuel and protection products…
ARQQ 2026-08-25 Arqit Quantum: The Little Boat That Couldn't
Arqit Quantum trades at 397.6x FY26 EV/Sales while facing 5.44 million shares of dilution, cash burn and uncertain recurring revenue.
Luis Cortes Dequidt 1 click
US-Canada Tariffs: Finding Investment Opportunities
US-Canada tariffs impose 50% duties on $20 billion of Canadian goods, lifting US steel makers while pressuring Canadian exporters and…
RCEL 2026-08-24 AVITA Medical: Favorable Reimbursements For Skin Wound Care
AVITA Medical’s more predictable reimbursement, RECELL GO rollout and PermeaDerm economics support adoption, with cash flow breakeven…
Myriam Alvarez 4 clicks
WD #355: AUNA/CAAP Earnings, Brazil, USMCA Trade Situation
CAAP reported decent second-quarter earnings and its first dividend, while Brazil rose on an election poll and USMCA trade developments…
Aloe Aloe Aloe what 'ave VERRA then?
Verra Mobility's new seven-year Avis agreement replaces a customer worth over 10% of revenue on materially worse economics, exposing…
Going against the grain on GO Residential
GO Residential’s H&R REIT deal could trigger index purchases of 32 million units and re-rate its Lantower portfolio, despite related-party…
ContextLogic
ContextLogic’s US Salt holds about 23% of the US and Canadian pharmaceutical-grade salt market, one of only two suppliers, supporting…
LZ · long Legalzoom.com INC
LegalZoom trades near all-time lows as AI adoption is positioned to accelerate growth.
Limbach Holdings: The Stock Has Room To Grow Again (Rating Upgrade)
Limbach Holdings, down 63% since June 2025, upgraded on bargain valuation and growth prospects following its acquisition of 1901 Inc.
David Zanoni 
Jumia
Jumia’s January 2028 $7/$15 call spread risks $1.15 for up to $6.85 if cost cuts and marketplace growth deliver adjusted EBITDA and…
Why DoorDash’s Autonomous Strategy Beats Uber’s Hodgepodge
DoorDash’s integrated autonomous-delivery strategy contrasts with Uber’s 2026 divestment of Serve Robotics, its former delivery-robot…
Stock Trade Compilation Diez
E.W. Scripps, Team Internet, Monro, doValue and Inter & Co feature as special-situation trades involving mergers, asset sales, leverage and…
Single Stock Spotlight #13: Entravision (EVC)
Entravision’s Smadex ad-tech unit grew Q2 revenue 230% year over year, underpinning a re-rating thesis despite its legacy Spanish-language…
The Entity That Bought Jinko’s Florida Plant Is Run by the Family of China’s “Sun King”
JinkoSolar sold control of its Florida solar plant to a Delaware entity run by China’s “Sun King” family, potentially sidestepping new…
H&R REIT & GO Residential deal, some thoughts
H&R REIT’s C$12 GO Residential deal gives unitholders 67% of the combined company, while CEO Thomas Hofstedter’s family affiliates cash out…
Entravision Q2 Notes
Entravision’s ATS revenue rose 230% to $182.8 million in Q2, but shares fell from above $14 to about $8 after management forecast…
40 Stock Pitches (3rd-9th August)
Navient trades near 40% of tangible book as Gator Financial Partners argues private student-loan growth and restructuring can reverse its…
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