A Busted Businesses or a Cyclical Bottom?
Two U.S. protein-snacking companies lost $6 billion in market value as impairments, inventory growth and margin pressure test whether the category has reached a cyclical bottom.
Wednesday, September 2, 2026
Back to today 
From X
catechwilliams on X
$NX Rapidly declining levered (4x) commodity biz. Q1’25 guide -12% sales, mgmt hoping for 2H’25 recovery. End-mkts deteriorating ($OC -20% Q4 guide, $JELD), customer losses, internal controls issues, integrating a large acq, 0 prior M&A experience. +30x P/E on best case 2025 #s
catechwilliams on X
$AS 50x P/E levered retail roll-up w only one decent asset (Arc’teryx). Stagnating in the US, nearly fully-penetrated in China. >$500 jackets didn’t work for $GOOS in Asia. Arc already bigger. Hyper promotional mgmt sent the stock skyward. This is going to be an epic crash.
catechwilliams on X
$DAKT New $50M display upgrade award for the Miami Heat arena. Will be a nice boost to current quarter earnings (FQ2'25). https://t.co/sLAFBEerYi
catechwilliams on X
$NX Just acquired peer Tyman. >3x leverage, never done a deal before, commodity business, customers all cutting numbers w deteriorating resi remodel activity ($AMWD yesterday, $MBC, $OC, $JELD). Stock is trading at close to 14x EPS. Seen this movie before. Earnings next week.
catechwilliams on X
$LYTS Very attractive acq of EMI following successful prior M&A blueprint--significant cross-selling op, cost reduction, expands product set which further solidifies dominant national position. Seeing +50% upside to shares from here.
Little Owl Research on X
@Tonyforever2003 @marketplunger1 This is exactly what came to my mind when reading this. I'm long $GPRK and $GTE for precisely this reason.
catechwilliams on X
$DAKT. Over the last 3 weeks have won several large upgrades—Colorado, UVa football stadiums. Each $15M projects to boost backlog and revenue >10% in the next quarter, further solidifying dominant market position. https://t.co/JFou9jCYxr
catechwilliams on X
$DAKT Est $50-70M revenue project. 4 jumbotrons, 5 ribbons + software contract for 2 stadiums. https://t.co/ANVOiAiZHn
Investor Letters
All letters- Palm Harbour Capital July 2026 082920 $938M
- Protean Funds July 2026 TRUE-B $584M
- Royce Investment Partners first half of 2026 AIOT $352MPAR $559M
- Protean Funds June 2026 TRUE-B $584MVIVA $349M
- Alluvial Capital Management Second Quarter 2026 DGXX $435MDIG $459M
- Greenhaven Road Capital second quarter BUR $857MCODI $843M
- First Eagle Investments second quarter 2026 LXU $726MOIS $499M
- Ariel Investments Quarter Ended June 30, 2026 CLB $477M
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Shattuck Labs pivots to DR3-targeted IBD therapy SL-325, funded through a Phase 2b readout as it competes with anti-TL1A drugs.
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